I think July was the first month to see YOY increases in home sales this year, but after such a dismal 2007 selling season it was bound to happen at some point. Looking back at the last housing bust, foreclosures were not a leading indicator of a bust/recovery, but notices of default were. The big difference this time is that the housing bust itself is what’s causing foreclosure, in the past it’s typically the loss of jobs/income that does it.
We already are seeing more NOD’s than home sales and over the next six months I expect we’ll see more foreclosures than home sales. The only way this doesn’t happen is even more massive government intervention or somehow sales increasing month to month after summer is over through the winter.
