I ran this by a business consultant friend. He said that about 200 of these jobs would be local hiring, and the other 100, for high level managers and specialists, would be people moving in. He said that Yuma can easily absorb 100 new people without seeing an impact. The pop is 90,000.
The financial planner told me their strategy is to buy land in outlying areas that have the potential to grow, hold for 5 years until the development grows up around that land, and then be the last parcel to sell. Buy low, sell high. It’s a savvy marketing talk, and my friend fell for it. It worked once because their timing was good, and now they probably put a lot more money into it. The planner told me you can use 401K money, so I think my friend put her retirement money in there; I’m certain that’s what she did. I told her all these problems that I see, and that I am warning her this is risky. I hope she stays my friend.
I will post back any further information I get. Aren’t they required by law to give me a bunch of information and disclosures? They have a feasibility study and appraisal, so what reason could he give for withholding that? He doesn’t have to give it to me, but wouldn’t it look bad for him, if he withheld it?
I want to know how much the land in Yuma appreciated already, to find out if the raw land is also part of the bubble. Yuma residential properties are in bubble territory, as I wrote in the post.
Why wouldn’t this land become more valuable, if Yuma does indeed grow out by 10 miles? He told me the refinery is outside of town (he didn’t say how far), and the parcels are located 4 and 8 miles on either side of the refinery.
I mistrust him a little, because he lied to me. He said the refinery would employ 4000 people. My consultant friend pointed out that refineries are capital intensive, but need very few workers. He said the 4000 figure refers to construction crews, who come and go in phases of several months each. You don’t build schools and shopping centers for a temporary crew of 300 construction workers, most of whom would come without their families anyway. So for 3 years, you’d have 300 temp workers, coming and going, and when it’s all done, you’d have 100 well paying jobs for specialists who are brought in. How would that make the price of that land go up? Impossible!
What happened in Calipatra?
I am fascinated by the way some of these real estate salespeople fool investors. This story, if you follow it, is a fascinating exchange of logic, where clearly the salesman is falling flat on his face. Thanks for helping me through this Bugs. I owe you one!
