I like the example that HLS gave. Note that there were a number of cycles during the period of 1965 to 1984. Accumulating stocks during the bear portions of these cycles would have paid off handsomely, even in 1984.
These long periods or trends are considered secular trends. The markets have been in a secular bear trend since 2000. We are into the second cyclical bear market in this trend. I’m betting that accumulating shares during the cyclical bear markets will pay off in the long run. I am also hedging my bets with alternative investments and not all-in on stocks (currently about 50% of portfolio).
You guys who can predict where the market is 3, , and 12 months from now have the luxury of staking your future on that knowledge and can act on those instincts.
I however know that I personally do not have those capabilities. I will always be wrong in the short run, but comfortable in the fact that I don’t have to be right all the time either.
