I know the area well and live near there. There are a couple wild cards:
1. The city plan for closing main street for a Venice/Santa Monica Promenade effect.
2. The mega-development at 1st & PCH for mixed commercial, retail and condos.
3. The condo & development glut north of main on PCH. It’s seems to be abating however, it may just be units off market. If prices in the beach facing condos tank because of excess competition, shack prices will follow.
That said, the value of the shack isn’t the shack, but the lot and what drove prices was taking the lot, splitting it and build two three story 3000 sf ‘sliver’ homes to sell at $1M each.
All said, I’d say 50/50.
Nice comment on the war zone, very apropro. If the housing market sours enough, I give downtown a 50/50 shot of getting that vibe back.