“I just belive the declines will be more front loaded this time around. I could be wrong but that is my sense of things right now from what I see on the streets.”. We’ve got to keep you off the streets, sdr, this could be dangerous to your forecasting abilities.
Your comment is somewhat odd. What indicator do you have that the price drop is front end loaded? We haven’t even started the 2008 and 2009 $1.8 trillion ARM resets yet. We haven’t started the MEW-related or construction layoffs, which will result in tens of thousands of San Diegans out of work. Our unemployment rate will go up to 10%, brought down only by a further exodus of these unemployed people to other cities.
To be truly front end loaded, the majority of homeowners who would face foreclosure due to a resetting ARM or unemployment, would have their home listed for sale today, pushing up their MLS listing from 2009 to 2006. Is that what you are seeing? I seriously doubt it. I’ve seen houses ready to be auctioned off, that aren’t even on the MLS yet.
