I have been wrong about a lot of things especially when it comes to silicone but I assure you I am right about this. Can I make a prediction or what, put this in your pipe and smoke it.
Dialed in Bank Repo in Wolf Creek’s redwood, the largest plan and one of the largest lots, 10k+ sq ft, 4519 sq ft, they paid 762k just ten months ago and today the bank wants 519K. How in the name of pete do you think the sales office is going to compete with their own repos. Get ready for new pricing from the builders. What’s the new slogan for the sign? “Hurry, this is your last chance to lose 33% of your value before the year is out.”
Back to Bear’s insight regarding Wolf. The school opening was delayed but it was the slow residential construction and not budget that delayed it. The houses also had low kid counts because people with elementary aged kids were put off by the proximity and a lot of wealthy Asian investors that frequent the Casino from the O.C. and L.A. did buy there. He’s right on those points but it wasn’t too bad and the cops are just way too good and too plentiful here to let it go downhill. Temecula and Carlsbad have the highest amount of officers per resident than any So Cal city I know of, nearly doubling other communities, even the better ones. I never worry too much in that arena. It is a nice place and was designed in a way that the roads don’t go anywhere so the Casino traffic won’t go there. Head to head, Redhawk and Morgan are better but Wolf is still above average and should be priced about 10% less due to the lack of view and proximity to the Casino but it won’t ruin the place. The timing of when it was built will be it’s undoing, it was almost entirely built during the bubble, as was Morgan and that makes them more ripe for massive foreclosures. Just take one look at the repo I linked, at this point other than those that put more than 40% down, every single one of those thousand or so houses is underwater and it’s not because of the creek. 14 tracts, not one dollar of equity. Bam.
