Hi stockstrader, nice post. It seems I’ve found another disciple of denninger. I’ve also been trying to figure when the right time to short treasuries will present itself.
JWM, you may want to peek at this, some of the best analysis I’ve seen yet on US Treasury bubble:
HOWEVER, I do not agree with his conclusion (analysis of 01/12/09) that the bubble has probably popped, and his recent trading decision (“I am re-entering and got short TLT some more today.”)
Look at the 10-year and 30-year yield today. I’m glad I’m not short treasuries (this early)
However, what about let TLT run higher, then buy to open the puts expiring say JAN2010, giving myself some breathing room for the crash to occur. Then keep buying more puts if TLT bubble keeps expanding. I’ve been looking closely at that trade.
As for Denninger, I read his blogs with care and caution. Seems maybe 70% to 90% of his stuff is fringe lunatic stuff that also happens to be TRUE and brilliant; meanwhile 10% to 30% of his blogs are merely fringe lunatic stuff that’s ludicrous rantings of a nut.
…about how it is “impossible” for the Fed to reflate (inflate). That’s Denninger just being a fringe lunatic who clearly lacks the economic and financial training and experience that a seasoned pro like Rich T. has. Rich is correct and brilliant again in his latest article that explains many things including that the Fed has both the ability and intent to inflate. Rich’s articles on investing and economics are better that 95% of the articles I read in the Wall Street Journal and FT.
