I know you were addressing sdr but I thought I would throw in my two cents. I do believe this will have an impact. I think there are alot of well incomed individuals or families looking to buy into the 700k-900k range who were going to rely on this sort of financing. This falls square into the 100k+ per year engineer type who has say 100-200 in cash for a downpayment. So they were going to buy that nice home from the builder in say CV or 4S and now they just saw the payment jump a few hundred bucks.
I do believe it will take awhile for this event to manifest itself into the statistics we always see. I doubt the median will get affected for many months. The volume and active/pending ratios will be the first visible signs of the change. Also as we are hitting the cyclical slow season it will further mask this out. I also feel that this REALLY adds vulnerability to the rate cycle. These risk premium additions imposed by the secondary market are hard to swallow but if the 10 year was at 5.5 then it would be a real gut punch.
So in summary I think this will manifest itself over the next few months to help suppress pricing. As always many of the sellers who just don’t get it will need to cycle through a few months of inactivity and then decide if they should cut bait or pull out of the market. Once that pipe is cleaned out, this should hit the “family looking for the nice home in the good school district” types the most such that they will sit for awhile longer. Thus I would expect the cookie cutter 4S, CV and those types of homes to suffer once it does kick in.
