cooperdog, I put my money on real estate going down: I sold my custom built home in January 06. Gourmet kitchen, views to the ocean, it was beautiful, but I sold because I am walking the talk. I am a client of Chris Johnston, a successful trader. He posts here sometimes. This is what he advises about the CME:
QUOTE
“Submitted by Chris J on July 25, 2006 – 5:50pm.
Chris Johnston
There is no volume at all in the housing futures contracts. I trade more contracts every day in my own accounts by far than the total amount traded there. Do not bother with that until volume increases dramatically.”
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So cooperdog, no offense to you, but I will take Chris J’s advice over yours when it comes to investing.
I believe housing prices will drop by 30-50%, and will buy again when they hit bottom, even if that is at 30%. I will look for leading indicators, NOT the lagging indicator of the Case-Shiller index or the median. I am learning why they are lagging, and I tried to explain this to the media. I think Mr. Gin should have been explaining this to ME, instead of vice versa.
The house price data I gave you came from various realtors who track the market. It is consistent.
There are FEWER sales of homes this year. I believe we are down 30%. But the high end is holding up better. The % of homes sold in each price category has shifted. Last year, 8.5% of homes sold were over $1 mil, and this year it is 10% of homes sold. This shifted up the median, despite the price drops of each home. But the $1.5 mil home of 2005 is probably worth $1.1 mil today.
If you need more help in understanding the median and how the market is doing, talk to some realtors. I get ALL this data by TALKING with realtors. The economics stuff I get by reading and studying labor market Excel files. But the price stuff and what is going on in San Diego real estate comes from realtors who are out there experiencing this first hand.
