Amazon and housing

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Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 7, 2017 - 3:37pm

So Amazon will be building a second headquarters.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washing...

They are looking at metro areas over 1 million population.

Does anyone care to guess where that will be?

My friend was lucky because he invested in real estate in Reno before Tesla ans Apple moved to town. Now housing is on fire and there is a housing shortage. He didn't plan on it. He just wanted to be in the general area for the long term so pure luck.

I'm guessing Amazon will pick Columbus, OH. Central location. Republican governor, liberal enclave with huge university.

I believe the urban/rural divide will only grow. New tech hubs according to JP Morgan
http://www.politico.com/sponsor-content/...
If i were living in a 3rd tier town, I'd make plans to move quick.

Submitted by spdrun on September 7, 2017 - 4:16pm.

And smart people will really want to move to the landlocked flatlands of Clodumbus ... riiiiight.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 7, 2017 - 4:37pm.

spdrun wrote:
And smart people will really want to move to the landlocked flatlands of Clodumbus ... riiiiight.

Clodumbus.... haha. That's funny.
Amazon is looking for tax breaks, free land... they also need Republican and Democratic champions.

So where do you think they will set up shop?

Submitted by gzz on September 7, 2017 - 6:17pm.

How about we skip the stupid soccer stadium idea and sell Amazon Qualcomm with no height and density restrictions? They'd need to build something for SDSU there, but they can share parking since Amazon will need less on football Saturdays.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 8, 2017 - 5:54am.

Riverside

Don't laugh hits all the check marks.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 8, 2017 - 7:47am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Riverside

Don't laugh hits all the check marks.

True in many ways.

I however believe that Amazon, if it locates in USA (the are considering Canada and Mexico, will choose a location with both Republican and Democratic congressional representation. They need politicians to champion them.

I think it will be a swing state. Amazon needs Democrats more to deal with potential anti-trust issues. So it might be Chicago which is attracting lots of big corporations. Or Washington, DC.

Submitted by svelte on September 8, 2017 - 8:49am.

West states will be out of luck, will need to be back east. Perhaps the FedEx hub of Memphis? That metro area is just over the 1M mark.

Atlanta would be another good guess - large well established commerce area.

Maybe Chicago, but weather starts being an issue...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 9, 2017 - 7:56am.

LOL everyone is throwing their hat into the ring.

L.A.
Irvine
San Francisco (like they need it)
San Jose (same)

Did not see anything about SD.

It will be very interesting to see where this lands.

Submitted by SK in CV on September 9, 2017 - 9:39am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
LOL everyone is throwing their hat into the ring.

L.A.
Irvine
San Francisco (like they need it)
San Jose (same)

Did not see anything about SD.

It will be very interesting to see where this lands.

I think the likelihood of it being any of those is low. There isn't enough space, and residential costs are way too high.

They take up a massive area just off downtown seattle, and RE prices are LA/SF like there. I think a more likely place for them to end up is somewhere that RE prices aren't already sky high, and there is plenty of space to expand in center city or other urban setting.

Austin, Atlanta, Memphis, Phoenix, Minneapolis. All possibilities.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 9, 2017 - 10:01am.

Amazon is not building a distribution center. They already have many.
They need to find an area where executives and professionals would like to live.
Once the selection is made, I expect a kind of real estate stampede.

Atlanta is interesting. I have a friend who works for a European pharma in Atlanta and she tells me it's a boring place. It's OK but she can't wait to return to New Jersey near NYC. Her European colleagues don't much like Atlanta either. The American colleagues are fine with Atlanta.

The WaPo article mentioned Toronto where it's easier to hire foreign workers. But real estate there is already like SF. Canada is developing tech and Quebec has more liberal immigration policies. Montreal is reemergong as a desirable metro (it was the center of commerce before companies moved away because of French separatism decades ago).

Submitted by svelte on September 9, 2017 - 10:29am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Amazon is not building a distribution center. They already have many.
They need to find an area where executives and professionals would like to live.

True, but having production and/or distribution within an hour or two of the headquarters has many advantages...keeps executives and professionals grounded as they can visit the other arms of their company on a routine basis.

Many examples of this in the corporate world: GM, Ford, 3M, Brunswick, Tesla, Delta, American, Southwest, FedEx, on and on.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 12, 2017 - 1:28pm.

The NYT says Denver.
I like Denver it's an outdoorsy town with sky slopes nearby.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 12, 2017 - 2:01pm.

Never really spent any time in Denver.

Seems like a cold windy place to live day to day.

Not sure I would move there just for a Job.

Anyway not my cup of tea.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 12, 2017 - 4:05pm.

I'd rather live in Portland or Seattle. But I think Denver has the same outdoorsy vibe where people like Subarus. Downtown Denver has revitalized nicely.
CU boulder has a good building Construction program, i heard.

Denver maybe a good culture fit for Amazon.

Submitted by matt on September 12, 2017 - 7:51pm.

I think Austin has a good chance.

Submitted by Otay OG on September 17, 2017 - 11:12am.

My prediction is (jaws will drop), it'll be the region of East Chula Vista, Otay Ranch, Eastlake, and the border area which is part of the City of San Diego including Brown Field. The missing requirement is a University, but Chula Vista has acquired 375 acres for a University and Innovation District.

The infrastucture in East Chula is great and MTS is expanding services to link downtown SD, East Chula and the Otay port of entry: http://www.keepsandiegomoving.com/SouthB...

Also, for added appeal: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/busi...

SD is getting some consideration for Amazon's expansion: http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Am...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 17, 2017 - 12:12pm.

Chula Vista would be an awesome location if we ever get immigration reform and workers with work permits could travel freely in a North American trade zone.

There was a lot of talk in the past about a bi-national airport and the like. The San Diego/Tijuana region could be a Pacific trading hub.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 19, 2017 - 10:43am.

I believe there’s a 95% chance of Amazon choosing a metro that has an ikea store.
They are not competitors and complement one another well.

There is no Ikea store in Austin but there is a store in Frisco/Dallas.
Edit: Opps, I was wrong. There is a store in Round Rock, outside Austin. The google map is not accurate.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer...

http://m.ikea.com/us/en/pages/local_stor...

Submitted by svelte on October 21, 2017 - 6:05pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I believe there’s a 95% chance of Amazon choosing a metro that has an ikea store.
They are not competitors and complement one another well.

I believe there is a 100% chance of Amazon choosing a metro area that has a McDonald's. They don't compete and complement each other well.

Hey, I can associate two unrelated facts too.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 24, 2017 - 12:36am.

Svelte, i meant to say that Ikea is a benefit to Amazon employees, kinda like many people want to be near Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s.

Submitted by livinincali on October 24, 2017 - 9:46am.

I'm guessing somewhere in Virginia. Either Northern VA or Richmond.

Submitted by harvey on October 24, 2017 - 9:53am.

It will be someplace with a warm climate.

Submitted by kev374 on October 24, 2017 - 10:18am.

I am reading in a lot of places that Atlanta has the top shot at this now just because of it's geographic location, Amazon wants to have a HQ closer to the East coast, it's the biggest airline hub in the country, serves as a terminus for a lot of road traffic, has a huge amount of tech talent, strong economy, good universities and schools, relatively affordable housing (at least for now), relatively good weather, in addition Georgia is giving $1 billion in incentives etc.

Submitted by spdrun on October 24, 2017 - 10:59am.

Atlanta or NoVA can take Amazon -- hope they enjoy higher rents, more businesses focused towards pretentious hipsters as opposed to normal humans, and more traffic. Just glad that NYC isn't offering incentives (corporate welfare) to the wreckers.

If Amazon picks the NYC area, let them stay on Staten Island or move to NJ.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on October 27, 2017 - 4:48pm.

kev374 wrote:
I am reading in a lot of places that Atlanta has the top shot at this now just because of it's geographic location, Amazon wants to have a HQ closer to the East coast, it's the biggest airline hub in the country, serves as a terminus for a lot of road traffic, has a huge amount of tech talent, strong economy, good universities and schools, relatively affordable housing (at least for now), relatively good weather, in addition Georgia is giving $1 billion in incentives etc.

Atlanta minimally is a finalist.

Submitted by ucodegen on October 27, 2017 - 7:55pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
kev374 wrote:
I am reading in a lot of places that Atlanta has the top shot at this now just because of it's geographic location, Amazon wants to have a HQ closer to the East coast, it's the biggest airline hub in the country, serves as a terminus for a lot of road traffic, has a huge amount of tech talent, strong economy, good universities and schools, relatively affordable housing (at least for now), relatively good weather, in addition Georgia is giving $1 billion in incentives etc.

Atlanta minimally is a finalist.


The problem with Atlanta is that there is too much traffic. It might look good at first blush, but I you try flying though Atlanta, you find the problem with too much traffic. Per 2015 Census, the following are cities with more than 1 million; New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose. Looking at being located more central to US (and Mexico), that brings it down to Houston, San Antonio, Dallas. Dallas is #4 of top busiest airports. If you factor busiest by cargo, it is Memphis International, followed by Anchorage - Dallas is #9 and Atlanta does not even appear.

Atlanta has 5 runways (1 longer than 12,000ft, 4 at 9,000ft +), Dallas Ft Worth has 7 runways (4 at 13,000ft +, 2 at 9000ft+ and 1 at 8000ft+). Cargo planes tend to need longer runways. Atlanta's runways all go east-west, Dallas Ft Worth has 5 east-west runs and 2 diagonal. Winds don't always blow east/west.

I would hazard by looking at the specs that Dallas, Ft Worth is a likely choice.

When I add in freight rail lines - Atlanta even looks worse. Atlanta is served by 2 major class 1 railroads (CSX, Norfolk Southern - both east coast rails), Dallas, Ft Worth is served by 3 major class 1 railroads (Union Pacific, BNSF, Kansas City Southern - mostly central to west coast, Kansas City runs into Central Mexico) - some of what you get from Amazon has to be shipped ground.

Submitted by njtosd on October 28, 2017 - 12:24am.
Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 28, 2017 - 11:23am.

Detroit would be quite a coup for Detroit and Amazon also. It will mean Detroit is the comeback city. I wish them well.

Dallas or Atlanta are so ho hum business as usual, in the sunbelt.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 28, 2017 - 11:28am.

spdrun wrote:
Atlanta or NoVA can take Amazon -- hope they enjoy higher rents, more businesses focused towards pretentious hipsters as opposed to normal humans, and more traffic. Just glad that NYC isn't offering incentives (corporate welfare) to the wreckers.

If Amazon picks the NYC area, let them stay on Staten Island or move to NJ.

Love how you put things. But pretentious hipsters are necessary evils. Without them, there is no dinero to fix things.

Submitted by spdrun on October 28, 2017 - 11:28am.

Detroit is a symbol of everything that's wrong with America -- from exporting the auto industry, car culture, to urban crime, decay, and mismanagement in favor of suburban hellholes. I don't wish it well, especially not as a host for a parasitic corporation like Amazon.

Submitted by spdrun on October 28, 2017 - 11:30am.

Love how you put things. But pretentious hipsters are necessary evils. Without them, there is no dinero to fix things.

NYC is doing fine without more hipsters and techbros. Stay out, Amazon.

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