San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I would anticipate that these computerized valuation models are going to be a little more wonky than average for a while. This is because the pricing trends are very volatile right now and they will continue to be unstable for the foreseeable future.

These programs work better when the value trends are more uniform and when they have lots of data showing the same trends. That's not what we're looking at right now.

As long as you don't think of them outside of the entertainment value it's all good. If you really need to get an idea of where you're at, the realty agent who normally farms your neighborhood is probably your best bet.

Thanks, Bugs. I think I understand why Zillow isn't working in my neighborhood right now...it's kind of upper middle class, cepting for me (who bought the "ugly sister" on the block) but no two houses are alike. And nothing is for sale. But there are people on Zillow screaming, "I live in a tract neighborhood...how can MY value be so much lower than the exact same house across the street?!" Plenty of people are threatening to sue Zillow, because potential buyers are showing up with the Zestimate printed out. Plenty are screaming that they want their property removed from Zillow, but Zillow reps always politely refuse.

Zillow is actually starting to make more sense on their zestimates by putting together comps within the last 6 months instead of holding on to comps from 2006 and mid 2007 sales. They also use to compare homes the were completely different in size and lot. They still need to come down more in many areas but they are trying to play catch up.

zillow is rubbish. A friends place in Aliso Viejo was $475k last month and this month it is $515k. Are we to believe his property has appreciated when it is known fact that Aliso Viejo is one of the fastest depreciating neighborhoods in South OC.

I have to say that I've noticed some very odd moves on Zillow as well. In my neighborhood, one house "went down" by $45K over the last 30 days, while an identical house a couple of blocks away "went up" by $45K. One is now valued at $800K, while the other is valued at over $1M. The funny thing is, I know both houses, and the cheaper one is the better one (better location, upgrades, etc). It seems that the grain of salt for Zillow estimates grows larger by the day.

To follow up on my previous post: I'm fairly certain that they made some recent changes to their algorithm. I bet that what they're doing now is that the price of a house is influenced more by the prices of nearby houses (say, within a 200 yards radius, for example). The $800K house in my example happens to sit at the edge of the subdivision, with cheaper townhomes on the other side. The identical (actually, sligthly worse) $1M house sits at the other end, a bit closer to more expensive houses. While it makes some sense to consider the prices of nearby houses, it seems that they're now giving this factor way too much weight in their formula.

Anyone who has visited Zillow a few times should have spotted the inconsistencies, and therefore shouldn't be using them as a serious tool. If they are making changes for the better to their algorithms or whatever, they will still have an uphill struggle to gain credibility.

Zillow has great potential, but they themselves claim their are just estimates. Even still, it's amazing how enraged people get when their house drops $10k in a week.

http://www.zillow.com/howto/Zestimate.htm

With the recent drop-off in home sales the estimates probably have less data to draw from, and they certainly don't reflect reduced asking prices for homes that are not selling.

Personally I don't really care about their zestimates one way or the other. However, I and many others would love to sue Zillow for not responding to requests to correct information on their website. My case:

1. My house has a sold for price that has been there since November 2007. I have been asking them to remove it since November 2007 and at first they responded they would take care of it, it was a technically tough thing to do. Then they never fixed it. Now they wont even respond to my request to remove information that is not true.

2. Zillows automated system keeps putting my house up for sale every month even though it is not for sale. They at firs stated it is their automated system and that they would fix it. They have not and again no longer respond to my requests so every single month I have to go in to Zillow and remove my house as showing for sale.

In my view #2 is illegal. They are not a contracted realtor with me. They have no right to list my house for sale regardless of what automated system is doing it.

Once you complain enough, their staff just ignore you and since Zillow has not phone numbers for customer service there is nothing you can do.

Where is a class action suit lawyer when you need one?

VegasBaby,
Just forget about suing them. You'll just end up wasting your money as you have no valid cause of action.

With regard to 1, I have two basic questions: 1) did something funky happen in 2007. I believe Zillow's just pulls public records. If Zillow's lists it as sold in 2007 and it didn't sell, I'd take a drive down to the county records office and make certain your title is clean. 2) If it turns out to be just a computer error, then why worry about it.

With regard to 2, I have to question why you really care. If your house isn't for sale, then there is no listing agent for buyers to get in touch with and it just makes Zillows look bad. You also presumably don't have a For Sale sign in front of your house nor a lock box, so people aren't going to be stopping by to tour the house. Regardless, there is nothing illegal about them making this mistake. And, it hurts you in no tangible way.

So relax, have a beer, and watch the Ducks try and retain the Cup.

It seems like Zillow "isn't working" only when estimates are down. How interesting. ;)

It seems like Zillow "isn't working" only when estimates are down.

I can easily see that happening.
Since "real estate never goes down", the specs did not require the programmers to deal with negative growth.

I'd use zillow only for Sales history. You can't predict the future but past sales price is set in stone. You can easily see sales price of a house say in 2002 and you can estimate how you much you should offer for it now.

Actually, if you go to Zillow discussions, you'll find several people complaining that their Zestimates are too HIGH (or at least that was true when I last went to Zillow discussions right after Zillow changed its method of doing Zestimates -- which, in turn, was right around the time I made my initial post on here). I have no idea why people would complain about that, unless they think their county assessor is taking the Zestimate into account, which is absurd.

Zillow's algorithm is fundamentally flawed. Since they the goal is to monetize Zillow and since consumers think the estimates have validity, this is one heck of a problem.

We've been tracking some bizarre Zestimates and the Internet is awash in complaints that Zillow estimates that are too high, too low, or dropping/rising too quickly.

Take your pick!

Zillow flaks (currently David G.) are quick to show up when a new post appears criticizing Zillow, but much slower to proffer any reasonable explanations of the discrepancies. Indeed, they've yet to offer anything even remotely resembling a reasonable explanation.

The problem, in my opinion, is not that the model is flawed, but that the algorithm is a black box and consumers use these data as significant inputs for decision making.

The problem is compounded when Zillow justifies the errors by in effect saying, what's the big deal? people don't use these numbers anyway.

Sorry, but a profit-making concern can't have it both ways.

Zillow needs to get better fast or suffer the consequences.

See this thread for a brief discussion of what I consider to be astonishing errors for three model matches very near each other and Zillow's lame explanation.

What do you think?

Very nice link. That example is in perfect agreement with what I have witnessed in my neighborhood (see a few posts above). Precisely the same problem. Two houses that are identical, were valued nearly the same a year or two ago, and are apart by more than $200K now.

I offered an explanation for the discrepancy (maybe Zillow 2.0 gives too much weight to prices of nearby houses). That's really the only way I can wrap my mind around this. Everything else (lot sizes, year built, etc) is the same and can't account for the difference.

Yes, Zillow's got a bit of a problem. To be fair to them, what they want to do (produce an accurate estimate on each and every house) is very hard work. Close to impossible. In contrast, the Case-Shiller algorithm is a piece of cake. They average over an entire metropolitan area, kinda hard to get that wrong.

Zillow is still too high in most situations, because it looks backwards. Even six month old data is out or date, the only real data is seven days old and that is why appraisers will never be put out of work.

I jut looked up the zestimate for a house I'm scoping, it's zestimate is 450k, down 25k in 30 days. Guess what, it is listed for 329k, not sold, still listed, but there were sales six months ago for comps that were in the 400's, problem is, the computer cant keep up, there are places losing 25k a month, every month for the last year. Some mope logs on and sees his place next door went down 25k and wants to complain, have at it buddy, ask an appraiser and you will probably cry.

I checked the zillow for ten houses that I or people that e-mail me are looking at that are listed and every one was ziollowed as being down 20-50k in the last month but still 100-200k over the list price, I wouldn't want to be working the zillow complaint department in six months when it really starts to hit the fan.

I still think that the weight on driver's licenses should say "zestimate"

Well, for shits and giggles, the duplex we're currently renting has a Zestimate of 1.47M, despite having a total rent of $4100/mo, and being in worse shape than duplexes that have rotted on the market around $1.1M. When they're off by 50%, you just have to laugh.

op, zillow is much better now than they were in the bubble days. Sorry, but you house ain't worth more now than a few months ago. Sorry to break the news to ya.

Ok, I had never looked at cyberhomes before, but often use Zillow (though not for values). Interesting that they disagree by $175,000 on the value of my current home. What precision!

I will note that you can not compare Zillow values before they made a change to the algorithim to those after. The change did not shift the values, just the "rules" for calculating them. It is like seeing a college on US News's annual graduate school rankings slip 20 places after they change their methodology and concluding that something happened this past year at that school that made it 20 places worst than the prior year.

Zillow is flawed. Presenting comparable properties that are not comparable, estimating values based on non comparable properties and allowing people to think they are the source of pricing is absurd. Pathetic communication. No response to inquiries, no response to posts on their site, no ability to call...awful! Founders should go back to travel web sites and stay out of real estate. I am going to forward my attempted communications with them to the attorney general in Massachusetts.

Quite right! They have no standing to list your property or mine! They particularly have no business providing poor information and positioning themselves as "authorities" on pricing. They are flawed! Badly and should be held accountable in court.

I don't get it, how exactly are you hurt by Zillow? They take historical data and use a formula to give what they think is a price. They have disclaimers up the wazoo saying the prices are only an estimate.

Even if they list your house for sale, when it is not, how are you harmed? Would it be a crime for me to say your house is worth less than you probably think?

Zillow harms people by presenting information based upon flawed models that impacts public perceptions. Regardless of what the instrinsic value of a property is today (much less than FMV) there is a fairly accurate way of establishing FMV (comparable analysis at the street level by appraisors and realtors). Zillow provides lots of good information but their presentation of zestimates is irresponsible IMO.

Hmmmmm, no more harm than realtors pimping an ad saying a home doubles in value every 10 years. Talk about being a hypocrite.

I am still amazed at how offended people are, to the point of suing, because Zillow says their house is worth less than they *think* it is.

If you want to know what your house is really worth then sell it.

You think cyberhome is better? In terms of accuracy, none of them are good because they only predict the values of the homes that may not reflect the real situations. Believe it or not, zillow estimates my home closer to the real value than cyberhome. The latter even inflated my home price.

zillow harms people much less than a real estate "professional" (snicker) suggesting to "buy now or be priced out forever"...THAT, sdr, is irresponsible

teats,
I never said that, never would and agree that saying it is irresponsible. Now back to the point, putting out zestimates that are portrayed to have any level of accuracy beyond happenstance is irresponsible.

I have found zillow to be a little more accurate, cyberhomes depend too much on the last sale price.
In my neighborhood, established in the 1880's, cyberhomes can be off as much as 400-600% off in the value and the sale price. In 25 sales last year the only "hit" 4 sales that was under a 10% difference. The only heplful aspect of these sites is finding recent sales and whether sales are increasing or decreasing.
The bad part is that some of the big banks, Chase and Citi, have used these sites as a tool to lower the value of you home if you have a heloc with them and freezing you account.