 | ||||||
San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis |
||||||
~Navigation~~User login~~RSS~ |
Zillow valuations soaring!User Forum Topic
Submitted by kev374 on October 28, 2009 - 10:17am
Prices of homes on Zillow in South Orange County are skyrocketing. A friend's house in Tustin Ranch which he paid $680k for in 2007 dropped all the way to a ZEstimate of $530k just a few months ago, current ZEstimate...drum roll please... $692k! WTF!? He is estatic about it! Even in Las Vegas as everyone else is reporting declines Zillow values have gone up 20%! My cousin's condo which had dropped severely in value is now only 10% below what he paid for it at the peak in 2006.
|
~Finance and investing~*Investment advisory services and securities offered through Girard Securities, Inc., member SIPC/FINRA. ~Recent articles~~Active forum topics~
Sponsored Links
~San Diego median home $/sq.ft.~
|
||||
| © 2004-2008 piggington enterprises llc | terms of use | privacy policy | powered by Drupal | ||||||
 |  |  | ||||
Have you checked Phoenix area valuations on Zillow? Still going down...
Mine hasbeen falling in north county for 2 months.
Why do people care about Zillow valuations? How many times do they have to be so F'n wrong it isnt even funny anymore, before people stop listening to them? Now if he got a real appraiser to say that price, then he could be feeling good.
Even in Las Vegas as everyone else is reporting declines Zillow values have gone up 20%! My cousin's condo which had dropped severely in value is now only 10% below what he paid for it at the peak in 2006.
Is your friend planning to sell?
I don't get why people thing what zillow says has any value at all unless they are about to list their property. Gains on zillow are "paper" - which can be translated as "non-real". Until you sell at a firm price - it's all just smoke and mirrors.
It sounds, to some extent, like your friend is basing his net worth on unrealized gains that may never be realized. Zillow values are not the same as cash in the bank.
The same reason people like to hear the fake, er, scrubbed unemployment numbers rather than the real one or the DOW at 10,000 regardless of what the real economy or a better than expected economic statistic rather than one taken in context. Because it makes them *feel* better. We collectively *love* bullshit. The more the better...
I couldn't agree more with DWCAP. Zillow's Zestimate is a complete sham IMO. When it first came out I was pumped and thought it would be a great way to get a free-market valuation of a property. Experience has taught me, however, that the non-sensically gross over/undervaluations from Zillow's Zestimate make it less credible than even the plain-vanilla median valuation.
Supply and demand (read: a free-market) in housing is non-existent and hasn't been in existence for a while. Government intervention, banker/broker/realtor/appraiser shenanigans, and media compliance, among other things, have created the real estate conflagration that we are in today.
This is not a recovery in real estate or the even the greater economy for that matter. This is Piggington circa 2005 all over again.
"This is Piggington circa 2005 all over again."
Except prices are down 30-60% across the board and interest rates are lower for those with strong credit. These facts are working in favor of the market ... the facts opposed to the market are high unemployment, distressed loans, stock market selloff from 14k, etc.
Right now it is a tug of war between these factors. This is not really in anyway that I can think of like 2005. Not near as much funny money out there for one thing. Also the high end is pretty much dead except for the absolute best properties and deals. Again unlike 2005 when they flew off the shelf at ridiculous valuations.
Some people think we are in a bubble just because they are not the only ones interested in buying a house in SD at these price levels.
I have to say that the markets I'm looking at regularly have definitely cooled down for the winter. Probably will see some very good deals close over the next few months.
It isnt 2005, but I seem some simalarities. The BS loans have shifted from Private subprime lenders to Federal Subprime lenders. FHA and Dept of Ag (yah, look it up) loans have replaced the old subprime lenders. 125% LTV, yep. No down payment, Yep. Pressuring appraisers to 'meet the number', yep. Artifically low interest rates created by government intervention without regard to the wider costs to the economy, yep. They do a better job avoiding liar loans, but that is prob just a matter of time. Prices are lower now, so the loans prob wont be as bad as the 2006 variety, but that doesnt mean this is a healthy market based on sound lending practices.
It is those unsound lending practices, including the tax credit costing 5-10X the 8k per added house sold, that is keeping housing prices elevated above current fundamentals.
Bad lending / economics keeping housing prices higher than fundamental prices dictate, sounds similar to the bubble years to me.
It isn't exactly like 2005, of course. But it feels like it with the way the market and economy are still being manipulated and we are being told that things are recovering and now's the time to buy.