Good question. I was Good question. I was break-even up until gold went down a few months ago.
sdrealtor
October 3, 2008 @
9:31 AM
I’m up about 5% this year as I’m up about 5% this year as I’ve been sitting in an ultra conservative position since Fall 2006. I kick myself for not having traded the swings but know i dont have time for that. I’ll jump back in between 9000 and 9500 if we get there. If not, I’ll be watching and waiting until I feel better about the economy.
jimmyle
October 3, 2008 @
10:10 AM
My return rate this for this My return rate this for this year is -40%. Most of it is in high risk mutual funds, Asia Pacific, South America, Emerging markets, and US and Canada.
My return rate for 2007 was 25%.
It is painful to see such a hefty loss but I have more than 30 years till retirement so I will keep them where they are.
cr
October 3, 2008 @
10:22 AM
Who’s up 10%? And more Who’s up 10%? And more importantly how?
There are over 20,000 funds and I found about 60 up 10% or more on the year, and they’re almost all inverse or short funds, which are affected by the short selling ban, right?
Coronita
October 3, 2008 @
10:37 AM
cooprider wrote:Who’s up 10%? [quote=cooprider]Who’s up 10%? And more importantly how?
There are over 20,000 funds and I found about 60 up 10% or more on the year, and they’re almost all inverse or short funds, which are affected by the short selling ban, right?
[/quote]
go figure. Yeah, I’m wondering that too, since most 401k all look and feel the same.
desmond
October 3, 2008 @
11:16 AM
I moved from a S&P500 fund to I moved from a S&P500 fund to a MM over a year ago, I imagine that it will pay a crappy 3% for the year. What a waste, 3%.
cooperthedog
October 4, 2008 @
11:59 PM
I assume the question I assume the question includes all retirement plans and not just 401(k). My self-directed IRA has returned > 10%, primarily from trading inverse ETF’s. My wifes company 401k offers no viable short options, so its in gov’t paper at 2-3% (since 11/07), so thats disappointing, but better then a loss.
As for short selling, the restriction only applies to stocks of 799 financial companies (of course that may change…). Other non-financial stocks are shortable, as well as financial ETF’s (e.g. XLF). Of course, you need to be able to find a borrow on any shorts and your account type must support it (no cash or IRA’s). You can also synthetically short stocks via options or use futures (or inverse ETF’s that use futures (e.g. SKF).
Coronita
October 5, 2008 @
9:19 AM
cooperthedog wrote:I assume [quote=cooperthedog]I assume the question includes all retirement plans and not just 401(k). My self-directed IRA has returned > 10%, primarily from trading inverse ETF’s. My wifes company 401k offers no viable short options, so its in gov’t paper at 2-3% (since 11/07), so thats disappointing, but better then a loss.
As for short selling, the restriction only applies to stocks of 799 financial companies (of course that may change…). Other non-financial stocks are shortable, as well as financial ETF’s (e.g. XLF). Of course, you need to be able to find a borrow on any shorts and your account type must support it (no cash or IRA’s). You can also synthetically short stocks via options or use futures (or inverse ETF’s that use futures (e.g. SKF).
[/quote]
Well, then that’s not exactly the same question is it? Anything that is self directed usually means it’s not just a 401k, and I’d be curious if anyone has a 401k plan that allows any ETF purchases, option trading,etc. Me thinks not, because that defeats the definition of a 401k plan.
KCTxr
October 5, 2008 @
7:01 AM
Don’t post much, except for Don’t post much, except for Marion’s fun thread about how to get rid of mice in the garage. I vote for cats.
Moved 401 to interest only last Jan. due to this site. Left about 100 in the old investments. My interest is at 5%, but my 100 bucks are now only about 65 bucks.
scaredyclassic
October 5, 2008 @
11:22 AM
prudentbear
up more than prudentbear
up more than 10%
widely diversified bear fund.
scaredyclassic
October 5, 2008 @
11:22 AM
prudentbear
up more than prudentbear
up more than 10%
widely diversified bear fund.
pepsi
October 5, 2008 @
11:26 AM
-30% or worst… Haven’t -30% or worst… Haven’t checked yet.
stockstradr
October 5, 2008 @
5:37 PM
OK, I’ve done my share of OK, I’ve done my share of annoying posts on this site claiming this and that in terms of various gains in my overall portfolio.
I guess I owe it to everyone to go through the trades and calculate the net actual gains. So today I spent four damn hours crunching through all my trades. I correctly adjusted all accounts subtracting any final account totals for all deposits, or ROTH or 401K contributions. I incuded cost of commissions.
Do you really want to see the numbers? Maybe seeing this will just piss you off?
For my wife’s ROTH which I manage, calculated net GAIN overall including commission costs.
These are real numbers, double-checked ’em:
WIFE’s ROTH:
————————
Last 12 Months: +32.0%
YTD: 25.8%
————————
NOTE: keep in mind those numbers are adjusted down for the money I lost on paper in her accounts in the last 48 hours. If I had NOT made that mistake of betting that Friday would be an up market, her 12-month net would be +37.7% today.
NOTE: my wife is thirty-four years old and has only a five-figure amount in that ROTH; that’s why I felt comfortable being rather agressive with that account.
My wife has a larger retirement account with AXA Equitable Life, a company chosen by the school district where she teaches.
I recall a AXA “Professional Investment Advisor” (assigned randomly to her account) yelling at me on the phone in Oct ’07 that I was being “irresponsible” by directing him to move ALL that account into money market, and t-bills, and corporate bonds. What a MORON. He was pushing hard for her to be 70% long in stocks, at what we now know was the peak before a 30% decline in stock prices. He even had me put my wife on the phone, RECORDING her verbal confim that she preferred to follow MY advice instead of his.
Fortunately he did follow my instruction so the last 12 months that larger account has been 2/3 money market and 1/3 government and AAA bonds)
(That lame retirement account has no options to go short the markets, not even short market funds)
Yesterday I ran the numbers on that 403b account. Neither I or that account manager would have EVER IMAGINED my wife would LOSE 2% during last 12 months holding 2/3 money market and 1/3 government and AAA bonds.
Wow, talk about a BAD year for the markets when you can lose money holding investments which are THAT conservative.
Next I’ll crunch the numbers on my retirement accounts…
NET for ALL my multiple retirement accts (wife’s excluded)
————————
Last 12 Months: +31.5%
YTD: 25.9%
————————
Again, those are real numbers, double- and triple-checked them today.
Now for my sob story ( *violins playing*)….
Two weeks ago my accounts were up 42% net for 12-month period. So somehow I managed to trade myself out of 10% of my profit in a couple weeks. Whoops!
stockstradr
October 5, 2008 @
6:23 PM
Who’s up 10%? And more Who’s up 10%? And more importantly how?
——————————————-
ANSWER: I credit most of my net gains to Rich T. (our Fearless Leader) and his website Piggington.com, and also much credit to Roubini Global Economics.
——————————————-
This website, and the great economic analysis by Rich, convinced us to sell our condo in 2004, within 5% of the peak (for condos in San Diego). That alone helped us avoid what would have been $135K in equity losses. Several years ago, someone (can’t recall who) clued me to Roubini’s blog. Thank you!
Roubini’s blog with his INCREDIBLE insight and predictions on markets was key in helping me understand that a major stock market correction (and possible financial system meltdown) were coming.
Only major error I saw Roubini make is he predicted recession and markets falling would start about Jan ’07
Following Roubini’s dark predictions, I started buying shorts waaay back in 2006, I bought BEARX and I also used 5% of my portfolio to buy straight puts on the S&P500.
Yet, I didn’t get exp dates far enough out. So by Sept ’07 those earlier purchased puts (on the S&P500) were expiring worthless. I was mostly flat on BEARX, only because I recall BEARX was hedged with a lot of gold, which soared up.
LESSON-LEARNED: we tend to be biased, to expect our predicted market events will arrive sooner than actual. So we must try to hedge against our own biases. For example when gambling some pocket change on stock options, I now get exp dates much farther out than I think is needed.
But then (Oct ’07) the S&P500 had soared up to 1560, so far PROVING MY PREDICTIONS WRONG, or not?
I had two choices:
1) Admit I was an idiot for following Roubini, take my losses, and give up looking for a bear market.
OR
2) Recheck the fundamentals! Did fundamentals suggest Roubini was still correct, merely off on his timing?
We had the greatest housing market bubble then showing signs of weakness, our economy was 70% built on consumer spending much of that from equity-cash out refinanciing. The fundamentals showed me we were still due for a big market crash.
So in Sept/Oct 2007 I again purchased stock option puts on S&P500 – this time 7% of my portfolio. I also dumped my BEARX and went with over 50% of my portfolio into the efficiency of the ProShares 1X and 2X leveraged INVERSE ETF’s on the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
Then the markets dropped 30% over next twelve months. Wow.
Also, I should note I don’t just pick up tips from Rich and Roubini. During the last twelve months, every morning from three to five financial newspapers land on my doorstep. I try to read the WSJ and Financial Times cover-to-cover every day. I read Barron’s but no longer really respect that weekly paper. I probably have thirty books on investing, but half of them I’ve never even read.
I don’t read IBD because I know that most technical analysis is BUNK.
You make money by gathering information on financial markets and global economics, thinking it over, and trying to see a market inflection coming BEFORE most others see it.
I have about ten good ideas on the markets now, but I will only share those few that I believe are most certain to occur:
We are progressing now deeper into an approx. 12-18 month GLOBAL recession that will be remembered as one of the worst of the last half century (this assumes we don’t slip into depression such as 30% contraction of GDP, which IS unfortunately a distinct possibility). Most believe we’ve already been in a recession during the 3rd quarter.
So deflationary forces (demand falling) will likely continue to drive commodity prices down, even including gold. This goes against the important long-term trend for gold (and for overall commodity inflation)
At either the bottom of the recession, or nearer to the end of the recession, you’ll want to buy gold and oil, maybe platinum and other commodities.
GOLD is the key market play long-term because the main theme is dollar collapse due to US unable now to pay its debt and to finance its debt. So the USA will need to inflate its way out of this debt by printing dollars.
The exact future time when the USA starts to deflate the dollar, and the rate at which it occurs is difficult to predict. Yet, we know it will happen. However, looking forward ten years one can anticipate declines in the value of the dollar that exceed 75%.
One might anticipate the first significant new signs of dollar decline might happen as end of this recession nears, then inflation will start to accelerate rapidly and might soon surpass 10%.
That will send gold prices soaring. My sell price on gold is $2,000/ounce, and I believe we’ll see that within five years.
SO you’ll want to dump dollars (in say 9 to 12 months, when the recession is HOPEFULLY near ending).
Short-term (within twelve months) we expect deflation to pull down CPI, and mortgage rates will follow – giving us the LAST CHANCE at lower mortgage rates at the bottom of this recession. Then as we move out of the recession, mortgage rates will skyrocket as inflation heats up, so you’ll want a fixed rate loan to pay back your banker with ever more worthless dollars. So houses bought with fixed-rate mortgages might be one exception to the rule of dumping dollar-denominated assets.
Roubini believes the typical market correction (stocks) for this type of recession is approx 35% to 45% (from the peak of Oct ’07). Very near term I’m still looking for a Fool’s Rally that MIGHT then send the indexes up by say 10%, maybe a bit more or less. The crest of that Fool’s Rally would be a last chance to dump any long stock or mutual fund positions so you can avoid the additional stock market declines taking us to that predicted 35% to 45% decline.
It is risky to go short, but I’ve made a lot of money doing that during the last 18 months. One easy way to go short is with the Short and UltraShort ETF’s that ProShares offers for a range of indexes and market sectors. One of my favorites is “SDS” which is leveraged for 200% INVERSE response to whatever the S&P500 is doing. However, I cannot recommend anyone put more than 25% of any portfolio into such an aggressive short ETF.
When the Shanghai exchange fell from 6,000 to 1,800 I predicted that was a short-term bottom. That market then climbed up 25% in a week or two. Look for China stocks to now continue their decline..but they are already near the bottom. If I see the Shanghai exchange nearing 1800 again, I will start to pick up quality Chinese stocks, such as China Mobile, or the Chinese oil stocks.
jimmyle
October 6, 2008 @
1:53 PM
You can cancel your vote and You can cancel your vote and revote to move up, oops, I mean down! I am moving closer to -50%.
SD Transplant
October 6, 2008 @
1:59 PM
Ouch!!! I’m getting near the Ouch!!! I’m getting near the 30% loss teritory. Not counting today’s drop, I’m at (27%).
Ultimately, it’s only money………what am I talking about, capitalist societies value only that..
P.S. I have about another 30 years before retirement, so I guess that helps a little.
stockstradr
October 6, 2008 @
6:32 PM
I’d be curious if anyone has I’d be curious if anyone has a 401k plan that allows any ETF purchases, option trading,etc. Me thinks not, because that defeats the definition of a 401k plan.
OK, not an expert, but offer my opinion.
Some employers’ 401K plans allow their chosen plan administrators (Fidelity..etc) to grant direct stock/mutual fund/ETF trading rights (within 401K) to participants, who complete and sign a special form along the lines of, “It-ain’t-nobody’s-fault but-my-own-if-I-lose-all-my-money-trading-stocks!”
I’ve signed off that form and traded stocks in every 401K at every employer I worked for, including my current employer.
Very few employers will let their chosen plan administrator (Fidelity..etc) grant participants OPTION trading rights (within 401K). Trust me, I’ve tried.
Far as I know, nearly all 401K/ROTH plan administrators will NOT allow SHORT TRADING of specific stocks, because this generally requires a margin account which is incompatible with 401K/ROTH accounts. However, if your 401K plan lets you trade ETF’s then you can indirectly short through buying aggressively short ETFs such as those offered by ProShares. In fact, one could argue that the 200% leveraged ProShares ETF’s really give you indirect access to OPTIONS leverage.
Now for direct OPTIONS TRADING, when you leave your employer, you can rollover your 401K into an Traditional IRA that’s not associated with (or governed) by your employer. I have always done that. Some financial institutions (Ex.: E*TRADE, Fidelity..etc) that will handle your Traditional IRA, or additional conversion to ROTH IRA, will allow you to TRADE OPTIONS but you always have to fill out many forms (and claim to be a Options Guru!) to get that permission. You usually will NOT need to fill out any such form to directly trade stocks in your Traditional IRA or ROTH IRA, as those permissions are default.
Years ago, I created one special ROTH IRA account into which I only converted 20% of my total portfolio. (still a nasty tax hit end-of-year!) Then I had options trading granted to ONLY THAT account, and further restricted it to “Level 2” options trading involving Long calls/puts, straddles and few other not-so-complex options strategies.
You can guess why I did that. I wanted to protect myself from my own stupidity; that is, limit the MAX amount I can lose in options trading, and limit the types of options I can trade. I also NEVER have more than about 1/3 of that sub-account bet on options at any one time.
Now in that particular ROTH IRA for my options trading, it is a fact I’ve appreciated that ROTH IRA retirement account by 51% NET in the last twelve months.
If I could only appreciate that account ~50% every year, for the next ten years! Then I could retire and draw UNtaxible distributions from that ROTH IRA. I could also win the state lottery today (fat chance)
*fingers crossed*
Coronita
October 6, 2008 @
10:00 PM
stockstradr wrote:I’d be [quote=stockstradr]I’d be curious if anyone has a 401k plan that allows any ETF purchases, option trading,etc. Me thinks not, because that defeats the definition of a 401k plan.
OK, not an expert, but offer my opinion.
Some employers’ 401K plans allow their chosen plan administrators (Fidelity..etc) to grant direct stock/mutual fund/ETF trading rights (within 401K) to participants, who complete and sign a special form along the lines of, “It-ain’t-nobody’s-fault but-my-own-if-I-lose-all-my-money-trading-stocks!”
I’ve signed off that form and traded stocks in every 401K at every employer I worked for, including my current employer.
Very few employers will let their chosen plan administrator (Fidelity..etc) grant participants OPTION trading rights (within 401K). Trust me, I’ve tried.
Far as I know, nearly all 401K/ROTH plan administrators will NOT allow SHORT TRADING of specific stocks, because this generally requires a margin account which is incompatible with 401K/ROTH accounts. However, if your 401K plan lets you trade ETF’s then you can indirectly short through buying aggressively short ETFs such as those offered by ProShares. In fact, one could argue that the 200% leveraged ProShares ETF’s really give you indirect access to OPTIONS leverage.
Now for direct OPTIONS TRADING, when you leave your employer, you can rollover your 401K into an Traditional IRA that’s not associated with (or governed) by your employer. I have always done that. Some financial institutions (Ex.: E*TRADE, Fidelity..etc) that will handle your Traditional IRA, or additional conversion to ROTH IRA, will allow you to TRADE OPTIONS but you always have to fill out many forms (and claim to be a Options Guru!) to get that permission. You usually will NOT need to fill out any such form to directly trade stocks in your Traditional IRA or ROTH IRA, as those permissions are default.
Years ago, I created one special ROTH IRA account into which I only converted 20% of my total portfolio. (still a nasty tax hit end-of-year!) Then I had options trading granted to ONLY THAT account, and further restricted it to “Level 2” options trading involving Long calls/puts, straddles and few other not-so-complex options strategies.
You can guess why I did that. I wanted to protect myself from my own stupidity; that is, limit the MAX amount I can lose in options trading, and limit the types of options I can trade. I also NEVER have more than about 1/3 of that sub-account bet on options at any one time.
Now in that particular ROTH IRA for my options trading, it is a fact I’ve appreciated that ROTH IRA retirement account by 51% NET in the last twelve months.
If I could only appreciate that account ~50% every year, for the next ten years! Then I could retire and draw UNtaxible distributions from that ROTH IRA. I could also win the state lottery today (fat chance)
*fingers crossed*[/quote]
So the stockstrader, your effective gain from trading individual stock in a 401k is much less than your gross profits… Because in my experience with working at various companies (8+) for which the employer allowed you to convert tradition 401k funds to a self-directed stock account, there were a heck of a lot of fees to allow you to self trade. Maybe it’s different for you, but I’ve had just about every known big time 401k plan. (Job hopping 8+ time though did allow me to convert a 401k plan contribution into rollover which is a much different story). Don’t know too much about Roth, because I don’t have those.
stockstradr
October 6, 2008 @
10:51 PM
your effective gain from your effective gain from trading individual stock in a 401k is much less than your gross profits
My current employer (and previous) has chosen Fidelity as 401K plan servicer. Typical commission is $11-$12/trade. My trades are typically six figures each. We are talking less than a tenth of a percent of trade amount, for the commission costs.
You are correct, some employers screw their employers through poor choice of plan service provider. I had one employer used Salomon Smith Barney to handle our option and stock grants. Salomon Smith Barney charges about $50/trade.
for which the employer allowed you to convert tradition 401k funds to a self-directed stock account
Maybe my original post not clear. while you are stuck with an employer, you don’t convert your 401K into a stock trading account. The 401K plan providers who allow (when granted) stock trading within the 401K, typically manage that by making visible WITHIN your 401K a “BROKERAGE fund” which is really like a cash account that is within your 401K. So you simply shift some funds into that BROKERAGE cash account “fund” like you would shift 401K money into any mutual fund within your 401K. Then monies in that BROKERAGE doorway account can be used to buy any stock/etf/mutual fund.
You can read about ROTH IRAs online. There are upper limits on your income that determine who can convert to a ROTH. Of course, the key point in converting to ROTH is that every dollar you convert from your Traditional IRA into ROTH gets TACKED DIRECTLY ONTO YOUR TAXIBLE income for that year!
Once you get that money into your ROTH IRA, then you are “home free” because our government promises you will NOT be taxed when you withdraw money from your ROTH at retirement ages, and you are not taxed on the appreciation within the ROTH prior to withdrawal.
The question of benefit/cons of converting to ROTH is a complex topic you can find lots of information about online.
Coronita
October 6, 2008 @
10:57 PM
stockstradr wrote:your [quote=stockstradr]your effective gain from trading individual stock in a 401k is much less than your gross profits
My current employer (and previous) has chosen Fidelity as 401K plan servicer. Typical commission is $11-$12/trade. My trades are typically six figures each. We are talking less than a tenth of a percent of trade amount, for the commission costs.
You are correct, some employers screw their employers through poor choice of plan service provider. I had one employer used Salomon Smith Barney to handle our option and stock grants. Salomon Smith Barney charges about $50/trade.
for which the employer allowed you to convert tradition 401k funds to a self-directed stock account
Maybe my original post not clear. while you are stuck with an employer, you don’t convert your 401K into a stock trading account. The 401K plan providers who allow (when granted) stock trading within the 401K, typically manage that by making visible WITHIN your 401K a “BROKERAGE fund” which is really like a cash account that is within your 401K. So you simply shift some funds into that BROKERAGE cash account “fund” like you would shift 401K money into any mutual fund within your 401K. Then monies in that BROKERAGE doorway account can be used to buy any stock/etf/mutual fund.
You can read about ROTH IRAs online. There are upper limits on your income that determine who can convert to a ROTH. Of course, the key point in converting to ROTH is that every dollar you convert from your Traditional IRA into ROTH gets TACKED DIRECTLY ONTO YOUR TAXIBLE income for that year!
Once you get that money into your ROTH IRA, then you are “home free” because our government promises you will NOT be taxed when you withdraw money from your ROTH at retirement ages, and you are not taxed on the appreciation within the ROTH prior to withdrawal.
The question of benefit/cons of converting to ROTH is a complex topic you can find lots of information about online.[/quote]
oh, I know about roths. I(we) just don’t qualify. I’d also be leary of any government that promises you don’t have to pay taxes in the future when it’s deep in red.
vegasrenter
October 7, 2008 @
12:23 PM
In mostly cash and small In mostly cash and small positions in builder/finance/luxury goods put options (mostly closed out too early) for the last 2 years. No longs at all. Currently sitting on my hands – looking for an entry point & not finding one; happy to be achieving capital preservation right now.
jimmyle
October 10, 2008 @
8:55 AM
TIME FOR A REVOTE,
I can’t TIME FOR A REVOTE,
I can’t really revote because mine is now at ~-60%. Lesson learned. Too late to move out now. Hope this will make some of you feel better. I don’t think any of you can beat my negative return playing mutual funds. Individual stocks is another story, some people I know are near zero.
Note that I started with this employer in 2006 and almost maxed out on my eligibility since then.
OOPPSS, I tried to edit the OOPPSS, I tried to edit the poll but it wiped out the data too. Sorry.
It is all messed up now, you can’t vote again. Can I delete this thread?
Coronita
October 10, 2008 @
11:04 AM
As of today, my indexes/funds As of today, my indexes/funds that I don’t touch are tracking a $404,300.33 loss, including 401k, and non 401k accounts.
Fortunately, my individual trading (317times this year) is up $215,000.97. And fortunately, I had a windfall last year from ISO/NQ stock options forced sells due to expiration.
LOL…i guess I could have a good portion of my home’s principle off. Oh well, such is life.
Why am I sharing this? Because all you young folks that are worried about losing $10k, $15k, or even $25k in the market turmoil, just remember. There are a lot of people losing a lot more that need the money a much sooner than you. So don’t break a sweat. I’m not (yet)…I’m not even close to retirement, and like i said there is a pecking order in who gets hurt in a downturn. You younger people are really the least folks that are gonna get hurt from this. Your parents on the other hand is a different story.
You young people without all that baggage are people that should be least worrying about this recession….You have so much time to make up. And arguably one could say, even if things aren’t expected to recover for another 20 years, that’s still good news for you folks that are in your twenties.
kev374
October 10, 2008 @
2:45 PM
I rolled over my 401k last I rolled over my 401k last year when I switched jobs. I did not re-invest thank god so didn’t lose a dime, I do monitor my portfolio as it “would’ve been” on Google finance and I would’ve been exactly 45.5% down, yikes!
nostradamus
October 10, 2008 @
11:44 PM
fat_lazy_union_worker [quote=fat_lazy_union_worker]As of today, my indexes/funds that I don’t touch are tracking a $404,300.33 loss, including 401k, and non 401k accounts.
[/quote]
I’m sorry to hear that FLU but it does make me feel better. Not because of schadenfreude but because I lost $10k in one day a couple weeks back and still feel bad about it… Even though overall I’m probably up (I really don’t follow as closely as I should) losing $10k in one day makes a lump in my throat.
vizcaya
October 10, 2008 @
9:08 PM
I moved everything into I moved everything into goverment securites fund after the stimulas bounce in April, then continued to buy up shares of my fund which is based on what the S&P does. I am only down 5% for the year.
I did however place a order today, which should execute on Tuesday, I am moving 25% back into the S&P fund. I will eventually move it all back over the next few months, and hopefully ride this one back up.
October 3, 2008 @ 12:37 AM
Good question. I was
Good question. I was break-even up until gold went down a few months ago.
October 3, 2008 @ 9:31 AM
I’m up about 5% this year as
I’m up about 5% this year as I’ve been sitting in an ultra conservative position since Fall 2006. I kick myself for not having traded the swings but know i dont have time for that. I’ll jump back in between 9000 and 9500 if we get there. If not, I’ll be watching and waiting until I feel better about the economy.
October 3, 2008 @ 10:10 AM
My return rate this for this
My return rate this for this year is -40%. Most of it is in high risk mutual funds, Asia Pacific, South America, Emerging markets, and US and Canada.
My return rate for 2007 was 25%.
It is painful to see such a hefty loss but I have more than 30 years till retirement so I will keep them where they are.
October 3, 2008 @ 10:22 AM
Who’s up 10%? And more
Who’s up 10%? And more importantly how?
There are over 20,000 funds and I found about 60 up 10% or more on the year, and they’re almost all inverse or short funds, which are affected by the short selling ban, right?
October 3, 2008 @ 10:37 AM
cooprider wrote:Who’s up 10%?
[quote=cooprider]Who’s up 10%? And more importantly how?
There are over 20,000 funds and I found about 60 up 10% or more on the year, and they’re almost all inverse or short funds, which are affected by the short selling ban, right?
[/quote]
go figure. Yeah, I’m wondering that too, since most 401k all look and feel the same.
October 3, 2008 @ 11:16 AM
I moved from a S&P500 fund to
I moved from a S&P500 fund to a MM over a year ago, I imagine that it will pay a crappy 3% for the year. What a waste, 3%.
October 4, 2008 @ 11:59 PM
I assume the question
I assume the question includes all retirement plans and not just 401(k). My self-directed IRA has returned > 10%, primarily from trading inverse ETF’s. My wifes company 401k offers no viable short options, so its in gov’t paper at 2-3% (since 11/07), so thats disappointing, but better then a loss.
As for short selling, the restriction only applies to stocks of 799 financial companies (of course that may change…). Other non-financial stocks are shortable, as well as financial ETF’s (e.g. XLF). Of course, you need to be able to find a borrow on any shorts and your account type must support it (no cash or IRA’s). You can also synthetically short stocks via options or use futures (or inverse ETF’s that use futures (e.g. SKF).
October 5, 2008 @ 9:19 AM
cooperthedog wrote:I assume
[quote=cooperthedog]I assume the question includes all retirement plans and not just 401(k). My self-directed IRA has returned > 10%, primarily from trading inverse ETF’s. My wifes company 401k offers no viable short options, so its in gov’t paper at 2-3% (since 11/07), so thats disappointing, but better then a loss.
As for short selling, the restriction only applies to stocks of 799 financial companies (of course that may change…). Other non-financial stocks are shortable, as well as financial ETF’s (e.g. XLF). Of course, you need to be able to find a borrow on any shorts and your account type must support it (no cash or IRA’s). You can also synthetically short stocks via options or use futures (or inverse ETF’s that use futures (e.g. SKF).
[/quote]
Well, then that’s not exactly the same question is it? Anything that is self directed usually means it’s not just a 401k, and I’d be curious if anyone has a 401k plan that allows any ETF purchases, option trading,etc. Me thinks not, because that defeats the definition of a 401k plan.
October 5, 2008 @ 7:01 AM
Don’t post much, except for
Don’t post much, except for Marion’s fun thread about how to get rid of mice in the garage. I vote for cats.
Moved 401 to interest only last Jan. due to this site. Left about 100 in the old investments. My interest is at 5%, but my 100 bucks are now only about 65 bucks.
October 5, 2008 @ 11:22 AM
prudentbear
up more than
prudentbear
up more than 10%
widely diversified bear fund.
October 5, 2008 @ 11:22 AM
prudentbear
up more than
prudentbear
up more than 10%
widely diversified bear fund.
October 5, 2008 @ 11:26 AM
-30% or worst… Haven’t
-30% or worst… Haven’t checked yet.
October 5, 2008 @ 5:37 PM
OK, I’ve done my share of
OK, I’ve done my share of annoying posts on this site claiming this and that in terms of various gains in my overall portfolio.
I guess I owe it to everyone to go through the trades and calculate the net actual gains. So today I spent four damn hours crunching through all my trades. I correctly adjusted all accounts subtracting any final account totals for all deposits, or ROTH or 401K contributions. I incuded cost of commissions.
Do you really want to see the numbers? Maybe seeing this will just piss you off?
For my wife’s ROTH which I manage, calculated net GAIN overall including commission costs.
These are real numbers, double-checked ’em:
WIFE’s ROTH:
————————
Last 12 Months: +32.0%
YTD: 25.8%
————————
NOTE: keep in mind those numbers are adjusted down for the money I lost on paper in her accounts in the last 48 hours. If I had NOT made that mistake of betting that Friday would be an up market, her 12-month net would be +37.7% today.
NOTE: my wife is thirty-four years old and has only a five-figure amount in that ROTH; that’s why I felt comfortable being rather agressive with that account.
My wife has a larger retirement account with AXA Equitable Life, a company chosen by the school district where she teaches.
I recall a AXA “Professional Investment Advisor” (assigned randomly to her account) yelling at me on the phone in Oct ’07 that I was being “irresponsible” by directing him to move ALL that account into money market, and t-bills, and corporate bonds. What a MORON. He was pushing hard for her to be 70% long in stocks, at what we now know was the peak before a 30% decline in stock prices. He even had me put my wife on the phone, RECORDING her verbal confim that she preferred to follow MY advice instead of his.
Fortunately he did follow my instruction so the last 12 months that larger account has been 2/3 money market and 1/3 government and AAA bonds)
(That lame retirement account has no options to go short the markets, not even short market funds)
Yesterday I ran the numbers on that 403b account. Neither I or that account manager would have EVER IMAGINED my wife would LOSE 2% during last 12 months holding 2/3 money market and 1/3 government and AAA bonds.
Wow, talk about a BAD year for the markets when you can lose money holding investments which are THAT conservative.
Next I’ll crunch the numbers on my retirement accounts…
NET for ALL my multiple retirement accts (wife’s excluded)
————————
Last 12 Months: +31.5%
YTD: 25.9%
————————
Again, those are real numbers, double- and triple-checked them today.
Now for my sob story ( *violins playing*)….
Two weeks ago my accounts were up 42% net for 12-month period. So somehow I managed to trade myself out of 10% of my profit in a couple weeks. Whoops!
October 5, 2008 @ 6:23 PM
Who’s up 10%? And more
Who’s up 10%? And more importantly how?
——————————————-
ANSWER: I credit most of my net gains to Rich T. (our Fearless Leader) and his website Piggington.com, and also much credit to Roubini Global Economics.
——————————————-
This website, and the great economic analysis by Rich, convinced us to sell our condo in 2004, within 5% of the peak (for condos in San Diego). That alone helped us avoid what would have been $135K in equity losses. Several years ago, someone (can’t recall who) clued me to Roubini’s blog. Thank you!
Roubini’s blog with his INCREDIBLE insight and predictions on markets was key in helping me understand that a major stock market correction (and possible financial system meltdown) were coming.
Only major error I saw Roubini make is he predicted recession and markets falling would start about Jan ’07
Following Roubini’s dark predictions, I started buying shorts waaay back in 2006, I bought BEARX and I also used 5% of my portfolio to buy straight puts on the S&P500.
Yet, I didn’t get exp dates far enough out. So by Sept ’07 those earlier purchased puts (on the S&P500) were expiring worthless. I was mostly flat on BEARX, only because I recall BEARX was hedged with a lot of gold, which soared up.
LESSON-LEARNED: we tend to be biased, to expect our predicted market events will arrive sooner than actual. So we must try to hedge against our own biases. For example when gambling some pocket change on stock options, I now get exp dates much farther out than I think is needed.
But then (Oct ’07) the S&P500 had soared up to 1560, so far PROVING MY PREDICTIONS WRONG, or not?
I had two choices:
1) Admit I was an idiot for following Roubini, take my losses, and give up looking for a bear market.
OR
2) Recheck the fundamentals! Did fundamentals suggest Roubini was still correct, merely off on his timing?
We had the greatest housing market bubble then showing signs of weakness, our economy was 70% built on consumer spending much of that from equity-cash out refinanciing. The fundamentals showed me we were still due for a big market crash.
So in Sept/Oct 2007 I again purchased stock option puts on S&P500 – this time 7% of my portfolio. I also dumped my BEARX and went with over 50% of my portfolio into the efficiency of the ProShares 1X and 2X leveraged INVERSE ETF’s on the S&P500 and NASDAQ.
Then the markets dropped 30% over next twelve months. Wow.
Also, I should note I don’t just pick up tips from Rich and Roubini. During the last twelve months, every morning from three to five financial newspapers land on my doorstep. I try to read the WSJ and Financial Times cover-to-cover every day. I read Barron’s but no longer really respect that weekly paper. I probably have thirty books on investing, but half of them I’ve never even read.
I don’t read IBD because I know that most technical analysis is BUNK.
You make money by gathering information on financial markets and global economics, thinking it over, and trying to see a market inflection coming BEFORE most others see it.
I have about ten good ideas on the markets now, but I will only share those few that I believe are most certain to occur:
We are progressing now deeper into an approx. 12-18 month GLOBAL recession that will be remembered as one of the worst of the last half century (this assumes we don’t slip into depression such as 30% contraction of GDP, which IS unfortunately a distinct possibility). Most believe we’ve already been in a recession during the 3rd quarter.
So deflationary forces (demand falling) will likely continue to drive commodity prices down, even including gold. This goes against the important long-term trend for gold (and for overall commodity inflation)
At either the bottom of the recession, or nearer to the end of the recession, you’ll want to buy gold and oil, maybe platinum and other commodities.
GOLD is the key market play long-term because the main theme is dollar collapse due to US unable now to pay its debt and to finance its debt. So the USA will need to inflate its way out of this debt by printing dollars.
The exact future time when the USA starts to deflate the dollar, and the rate at which it occurs is difficult to predict. Yet, we know it will happen. However, looking forward ten years one can anticipate declines in the value of the dollar that exceed 75%.
One might anticipate the first significant new signs of dollar decline might happen as end of this recession nears, then inflation will start to accelerate rapidly and might soon surpass 10%.
That will send gold prices soaring. My sell price on gold is $2,000/ounce, and I believe we’ll see that within five years.
SO you’ll want to dump dollars (in say 9 to 12 months, when the recession is HOPEFULLY near ending).
Short-term (within twelve months) we expect deflation to pull down CPI, and mortgage rates will follow – giving us the LAST CHANCE at lower mortgage rates at the bottom of this recession. Then as we move out of the recession, mortgage rates will skyrocket as inflation heats up, so you’ll want a fixed rate loan to pay back your banker with ever more worthless dollars. So houses bought with fixed-rate mortgages might be one exception to the rule of dumping dollar-denominated assets.
Roubini believes the typical market correction (stocks) for this type of recession is approx 35% to 45% (from the peak of Oct ’07). Very near term I’m still looking for a Fool’s Rally that MIGHT then send the indexes up by say 10%, maybe a bit more or less. The crest of that Fool’s Rally would be a last chance to dump any long stock or mutual fund positions so you can avoid the additional stock market declines taking us to that predicted 35% to 45% decline.
It is risky to go short, but I’ve made a lot of money doing that during the last 18 months. One easy way to go short is with the Short and UltraShort ETF’s that ProShares offers for a range of indexes and market sectors. One of my favorites is “SDS” which is leveraged for 200% INVERSE response to whatever the S&P500 is doing. However, I cannot recommend anyone put more than 25% of any portfolio into such an aggressive short ETF.
When the Shanghai exchange fell from 6,000 to 1,800 I predicted that was a short-term bottom. That market then climbed up 25% in a week or two. Look for China stocks to now continue their decline..but they are already near the bottom. If I see the Shanghai exchange nearing 1800 again, I will start to pick up quality Chinese stocks, such as China Mobile, or the Chinese oil stocks.
October 6, 2008 @ 1:53 PM
You can cancel your vote and
You can cancel your vote and revote to move up, oops, I mean down! I am moving closer to -50%.
October 6, 2008 @ 1:59 PM
Ouch!!! I’m getting near the
Ouch!!! I’m getting near the 30% loss teritory. Not counting today’s drop, I’m at (27%).
Ultimately, it’s only money………what am I talking about, capitalist societies value only that..
P.S. I have about another 30 years before retirement, so I guess that helps a little.
October 6, 2008 @ 6:32 PM
I’d be curious if anyone has
I’d be curious if anyone has a 401k plan that allows any ETF purchases, option trading,etc. Me thinks not, because that defeats the definition of a 401k plan.
OK, not an expert, but offer my opinion.
Some employers’ 401K plans allow their chosen plan administrators (Fidelity..etc) to grant direct stock/mutual fund/ETF trading rights (within 401K) to participants, who complete and sign a special form along the lines of, “It-ain’t-nobody’s-fault but-my-own-if-I-lose-all-my-money-trading-stocks!”
I’ve signed off that form and traded stocks in every 401K at every employer I worked for, including my current employer.
Very few employers will let their chosen plan administrator (Fidelity..etc) grant participants OPTION trading rights (within 401K). Trust me, I’ve tried.
Far as I know, nearly all 401K/ROTH plan administrators will NOT allow SHORT TRADING of specific stocks, because this generally requires a margin account which is incompatible with 401K/ROTH accounts. However, if your 401K plan lets you trade ETF’s then you can indirectly short through buying aggressively short ETFs such as those offered by ProShares. In fact, one could argue that the 200% leveraged ProShares ETF’s really give you indirect access to OPTIONS leverage.
Now for direct OPTIONS TRADING, when you leave your employer, you can rollover your 401K into an Traditional IRA that’s not associated with (or governed) by your employer. I have always done that. Some financial institutions (Ex.: E*TRADE, Fidelity..etc) that will handle your Traditional IRA, or additional conversion to ROTH IRA, will allow you to TRADE OPTIONS but you always have to fill out many forms (and claim to be a Options Guru!) to get that permission. You usually will NOT need to fill out any such form to directly trade stocks in your Traditional IRA or ROTH IRA, as those permissions are default.
Years ago, I created one special ROTH IRA account into which I only converted 20% of my total portfolio. (still a nasty tax hit end-of-year!) Then I had options trading granted to ONLY THAT account, and further restricted it to “Level 2” options trading involving Long calls/puts, straddles and few other not-so-complex options strategies.
You can guess why I did that. I wanted to protect myself from my own stupidity; that is, limit the MAX amount I can lose in options trading, and limit the types of options I can trade. I also NEVER have more than about 1/3 of that sub-account bet on options at any one time.
Now in that particular ROTH IRA for my options trading, it is a fact I’ve appreciated that ROTH IRA retirement account by 51% NET in the last twelve months.
If I could only appreciate that account ~50% every year, for the next ten years! Then I could retire and draw UNtaxible distributions from that ROTH IRA. I could also win the state lottery today (fat chance)
*fingers crossed*
October 6, 2008 @ 10:00 PM
stockstradr wrote:I’d be
[quote=stockstradr]I’d be curious if anyone has a 401k plan that allows any ETF purchases, option trading,etc. Me thinks not, because that defeats the definition of a 401k plan.
OK, not an expert, but offer my opinion.
Some employers’ 401K plans allow their chosen plan administrators (Fidelity..etc) to grant direct stock/mutual fund/ETF trading rights (within 401K) to participants, who complete and sign a special form along the lines of, “It-ain’t-nobody’s-fault but-my-own-if-I-lose-all-my-money-trading-stocks!”
I’ve signed off that form and traded stocks in every 401K at every employer I worked for, including my current employer.
Very few employers will let their chosen plan administrator (Fidelity..etc) grant participants OPTION trading rights (within 401K). Trust me, I’ve tried.
Far as I know, nearly all 401K/ROTH plan administrators will NOT allow SHORT TRADING of specific stocks, because this generally requires a margin account which is incompatible with 401K/ROTH accounts. However, if your 401K plan lets you trade ETF’s then you can indirectly short through buying aggressively short ETFs such as those offered by ProShares. In fact, one could argue that the 200% leveraged ProShares ETF’s really give you indirect access to OPTIONS leverage.
Now for direct OPTIONS TRADING, when you leave your employer, you can rollover your 401K into an Traditional IRA that’s not associated with (or governed) by your employer. I have always done that. Some financial institutions (Ex.: E*TRADE, Fidelity..etc) that will handle your Traditional IRA, or additional conversion to ROTH IRA, will allow you to TRADE OPTIONS but you always have to fill out many forms (and claim to be a Options Guru!) to get that permission. You usually will NOT need to fill out any such form to directly trade stocks in your Traditional IRA or ROTH IRA, as those permissions are default.
Years ago, I created one special ROTH IRA account into which I only converted 20% of my total portfolio. (still a nasty tax hit end-of-year!) Then I had options trading granted to ONLY THAT account, and further restricted it to “Level 2” options trading involving Long calls/puts, straddles and few other not-so-complex options strategies.
You can guess why I did that. I wanted to protect myself from my own stupidity; that is, limit the MAX amount I can lose in options trading, and limit the types of options I can trade. I also NEVER have more than about 1/3 of that sub-account bet on options at any one time.
Now in that particular ROTH IRA for my options trading, it is a fact I’ve appreciated that ROTH IRA retirement account by 51% NET in the last twelve months.
If I could only appreciate that account ~50% every year, for the next ten years! Then I could retire and draw UNtaxible distributions from that ROTH IRA. I could also win the state lottery today (fat chance)
*fingers crossed*[/quote]
So the stockstrader, your effective gain from trading individual stock in a 401k is much less than your gross profits… Because in my experience with working at various companies (8+) for which the employer allowed you to convert tradition 401k funds to a self-directed stock account, there were a heck of a lot of fees to allow you to self trade. Maybe it’s different for you, but I’ve had just about every known big time 401k plan. (Job hopping 8+ time though did allow me to convert a 401k plan contribution into rollover which is a much different story). Don’t know too much about Roth, because I don’t have those.
October 6, 2008 @ 10:51 PM
your effective gain from
your effective gain from trading individual stock in a 401k is much less than your gross profits
My current employer (and previous) has chosen Fidelity as 401K plan servicer. Typical commission is $11-$12/trade. My trades are typically six figures each. We are talking less than a tenth of a percent of trade amount, for the commission costs.
You are correct, some employers screw their employers through poor choice of plan service provider. I had one employer used Salomon Smith Barney to handle our option and stock grants. Salomon Smith Barney charges about $50/trade.
for which the employer allowed you to convert tradition 401k funds to a self-directed stock account
Maybe my original post not clear. while you are stuck with an employer, you don’t convert your 401K into a stock trading account. The 401K plan providers who allow (when granted) stock trading within the 401K, typically manage that by making visible WITHIN your 401K a “BROKERAGE fund” which is really like a cash account that is within your 401K. So you simply shift some funds into that BROKERAGE cash account “fund” like you would shift 401K money into any mutual fund within your 401K. Then monies in that BROKERAGE doorway account can be used to buy any stock/etf/mutual fund.
You can read about ROTH IRAs online. There are upper limits on your income that determine who can convert to a ROTH. Of course, the key point in converting to ROTH is that every dollar you convert from your Traditional IRA into ROTH gets TACKED DIRECTLY ONTO YOUR TAXIBLE income for that year!
Once you get that money into your ROTH IRA, then you are “home free” because our government promises you will NOT be taxed when you withdraw money from your ROTH at retirement ages, and you are not taxed on the appreciation within the ROTH prior to withdrawal.
The question of benefit/cons of converting to ROTH is a complex topic you can find lots of information about online.
October 6, 2008 @ 10:57 PM
stockstradr wrote:your
[quote=stockstradr]your effective gain from trading individual stock in a 401k is much less than your gross profits
My current employer (and previous) has chosen Fidelity as 401K plan servicer. Typical commission is $11-$12/trade. My trades are typically six figures each. We are talking less than a tenth of a percent of trade amount, for the commission costs.
You are correct, some employers screw their employers through poor choice of plan service provider. I had one employer used Salomon Smith Barney to handle our option and stock grants. Salomon Smith Barney charges about $50/trade.
for which the employer allowed you to convert tradition 401k funds to a self-directed stock account
Maybe my original post not clear. while you are stuck with an employer, you don’t convert your 401K into a stock trading account. The 401K plan providers who allow (when granted) stock trading within the 401K, typically manage that by making visible WITHIN your 401K a “BROKERAGE fund” which is really like a cash account that is within your 401K. So you simply shift some funds into that BROKERAGE cash account “fund” like you would shift 401K money into any mutual fund within your 401K. Then monies in that BROKERAGE doorway account can be used to buy any stock/etf/mutual fund.
You can read about ROTH IRAs online. There are upper limits on your income that determine who can convert to a ROTH. Of course, the key point in converting to ROTH is that every dollar you convert from your Traditional IRA into ROTH gets TACKED DIRECTLY ONTO YOUR TAXIBLE income for that year!
Once you get that money into your ROTH IRA, then you are “home free” because our government promises you will NOT be taxed when you withdraw money from your ROTH at retirement ages, and you are not taxed on the appreciation within the ROTH prior to withdrawal.
The question of benefit/cons of converting to ROTH is a complex topic you can find lots of information about online.[/quote]
oh, I know about roths. I(we) just don’t qualify. I’d also be leary of any government that promises you don’t have to pay taxes in the future when it’s deep in red.
October 7, 2008 @ 12:23 PM
In mostly cash and small
In mostly cash and small positions in builder/finance/luxury goods put options (mostly closed out too early) for the last 2 years. No longs at all. Currently sitting on my hands – looking for an entry point & not finding one; happy to be achieving capital preservation right now.
October 10, 2008 @ 8:55 AM
TIME FOR A REVOTE,
I can’t
TIME FOR A REVOTE,
I can’t really revote because mine is now at ~-60%. Lesson learned. Too late to move out now. Hope this will make some of you feel better. I don’t think any of you can beat my negative return playing mutual funds. Individual stocks is another story, some people I know are near zero.
Note that I started with this employer in 2006 and almost maxed out on my eligibility since then.
[img_assist|nid=9254|title=401K massacre|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=42]
October 10, 2008 @ 9:03 AM
OOPPSS, I tried to edit the
OOPPSS, I tried to edit the poll but it wiped out the data too. Sorry.
It is all messed up now, you can’t vote again. Can I delete this thread?
October 10, 2008 @ 11:04 AM
As of today, my indexes/funds
As of today, my indexes/funds that I don’t touch are tracking a $404,300.33 loss, including 401k, and non 401k accounts.
Fortunately, my individual trading (317times this year) is up $215,000.97. And fortunately, I had a windfall last year from ISO/NQ stock options forced sells due to expiration.
LOL…i guess I could have a good portion of my home’s principle off. Oh well, such is life.
Why am I sharing this? Because all you young folks that are worried about losing $10k, $15k, or even $25k in the market turmoil, just remember. There are a lot of people losing a lot more that need the money a much sooner than you. So don’t break a sweat. I’m not (yet)…I’m not even close to retirement, and like i said there is a pecking order in who gets hurt in a downturn. You younger people are really the least folks that are gonna get hurt from this. Your parents on the other hand is a different story.
You young people without all that baggage are people that should be least worrying about this recession….You have so much time to make up. And arguably one could say, even if things aren’t expected to recover for another 20 years, that’s still good news for you folks that are in your twenties.
October 10, 2008 @ 2:45 PM
I rolled over my 401k last
I rolled over my 401k last year when I switched jobs. I did not re-invest thank god so didn’t lose a dime, I do monitor my portfolio as it “would’ve been” on Google finance and I would’ve been exactly 45.5% down, yikes!
October 10, 2008 @ 11:44 PM
fat_lazy_union_worker
[quote=fat_lazy_union_worker]As of today, my indexes/funds that I don’t touch are tracking a $404,300.33 loss, including 401k, and non 401k accounts.
[/quote]
I’m sorry to hear that FLU but it does make me feel better. Not because of schadenfreude but because I lost $10k in one day a couple weeks back and still feel bad about it… Even though overall I’m probably up (I really don’t follow as closely as I should) losing $10k in one day makes a lump in my throat.
October 10, 2008 @ 9:08 PM
I moved everything into
I moved everything into goverment securites fund after the stimulas bounce in April, then continued to buy up shares of my fund which is based on what the S&P does. I am only down 5% for the year.
I did however place a order today, which should execute on Tuesday, I am moving 25% back into the S&P fund. I will eventually move it all back over the next few months, and hopefully ride this one back up.
I have about 25 years till I retire.