San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

I wouldn't do it, and as a Vet I have VA available to me. In general now is not the time to buy a temporary home. Remember when you get PCS orders to another base, the military does not help you to sell that home. The area around Edwards is probably due for a big-time correction, and that same house might be about 40% less in a few years. Then if you move you cannot sell.

No Way.

Three reasons:

1. I would never buy a house that I intended to own for less than 5 years.

2. I would not a buy a home now in Southern California

3. I would never buy a home in Lancaster.

I absolutely would NOT buy a home now in the Lancaster area under any circumstances, and particularly not in yours. Even in a stable real estate market, it is generally unwise to buy a home if you are not reasonably certain you will not need to sell it in less than three years or so. In the current market, even in the more desirable coastal areas of Southern California, prices are declining. In the High Desert, there has been a massive amount of overbuilding and speculation, and we are likely to see prices fall in those areas more than in the rest of the state. You could easily be looking at that house that you could currently buy for $340K being worth $175-200K by the time you move from the area in 3-4 years, and it could take you a year to sell it. My advice: rent a nice house for the same or less than your mortgage payment would be, and negotiate with the owner the ability to paint, put up curtains, landscape, etc., so that you will feel more comfortable in the place. Do yourself a favor and do not buy. Best of luck.

I agree with above. It is bad enough to get stationed in Lancaster, it is worse to actually own a home there. Just imagine hell on earth, and there you have Lancaster. Now would you want to own real estate in hell? no. so same goes for Lancaster or Palmdale.

for your housing needs, go to craigslist.org and you'll have your pick of nice new/newer homes for rent. do your due dilegence and make sure the owner of the home have enough equity in it that he's not going to just stop paying mortgage and leave you with a foreclosing home. and never pay rent months in advance.

The high desert areas are especially prone to losses because they are farther away from major employment. That means that these areas will be the first to suffer from declines and the last to recover when the trends turn.

During the last real estate recession (1990-1996) the Lancaster/Palmdale areas got nailed worse that almost any other area in L.A. County, and that's really saying something. I fully expect the same to happen this time too. Those areas now have more service-type businesses than last time, but those aren't the kinds of income that pay mortgages.

Rent a house and let the landlord worry about maintenance, decorating, yard improvements, resale value, and such. Then you can spend that time and effort on your job and your family. You won't be missing out on any upside to real estate values because there won't be any.

You're crazy to buy a home in Lancaster/Palmdale - under any circumstances. Hell, if you're lucky you'll be reassigned after two years instead of having to serve the full four years there. Check out the statistics on your future town:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/...

Renting will allow you to vacate and move to greener pastures should your skinhead neighbors start parking on their lawns, putting their cars up on blocks in the driveway, stop watering and mowing their lawns, etc.

Lancaster = trash

Real estate in that area has gone through many boom-bust cycles, and it's likely to crash again. I understand that some of the subdivisions in that area were planned and laid out in the late '80s, but were shelved for a decade or more during the last real estate bust.

In the pre-bubble days the rule of thumb was: buy if you're staying for five years or more, otherwise rent. I'd go by that rule in today's uncertain market. Plus you're in a unique situation ... if you find yourself seriously upside down in a few years and unable to sell, a vindictive lender could go after you for failure to pay just debts under the UCMJ.

For $2200 or less you should be able to find a very nice rental home. Just make sure you're not renting from an upside-down investor who is likely to go into foreclosure at the worst possible time, say when you're TDY to South Succotash.

I say put away cash reserves now and build a bulletproof credit rating. Someday, when the right buying opportunity comes, that VA loan puts you in a great position as you'll be one of the few buyers eligible for 100% LTV financing.

Lancaster is a hole. Imagine, a giant outdoor cesspool,
with very little water.

There is so much desert, houses are built at marginal cost,
and keep prices from rising except during the
decadal SoCal bubble.

I knew a guy (My GF's brother) had a patio hosue in
Lancaster, was utterly underwater, for 6 years.

If you want to live dangerously find an out of state investor,
move in, don't pay rent, delay as much as possible, wait until the banks
foreclose, then move.

Look, you can find desert houses for 1400, or a decent place in
lancaster for $2K, let the market implode.

Ugggh. These Piggington posts are getting so boring. The answer to this "dilemma" is RENT. RENT AS IF YOUR LIFE DEPENDS ON IT, BECAUSE IN THIS CASE IT PROBABLY DOES.

Now how about we re-phrase this question and make it a little more fun. "Would you rather -- purchase a home in Lancaster, CA or [fill in the blank]?"

I'll start with a couple of examples:

Would you rather -- purchase a home in Lancaster, CA or drill a hole through your hand with a 1" paddle bit?

Would you rather -- purchase a home in Lancaster, CA or begin an exciting new career as a Port-A-Pottie cleaning technician?

Okay everyone, now it's your turn! Would you rather -- purchase a home in Lancaster, CA or...

I lived up in the high desert for three and a half years. Unfortunately, it was up in Ridgecrest working for the Navy at China Lake. Let me assure you, there are worst places to live than Lancaster.

I would say, Lancaster isn't as bad as everyone makes it out to be. You are relatively close to L.A. without having to live in traffic. However, there are also shady areas in the Antelope Valley so be careful. Definitely rent. Comparable to San Diego, where I now live, housing up there is cheap, but I can tell you right now that it will drop major money in the next 2 years, so, again, definitely rent.

In Rosemond, there are some nice house just west of the interstate. It looks as though they were built in the late 90's so relatively new. There is also a small development that has it's own runway. You've heard of an attached garage. How about an attached hangar? How cool is that? Willow Springs is out there so you can go out there on track days and ride or join a racing club. Buddy of mine did that a couple years ago and he had a blast.

You can probably get to the coast in an hour and a half and Six Flags is about 45 minutes away...if that. Again, you don't have to live in LA traffic, which you will understand after you move.

The places to look around the Valley is probably Palmdale and Quartz Hill areas. A lot of engineers that work for Northrop Grumman, Lockhead Martin, Boeing, etc. live in those areas so they are definitely not crime ridden as some may lead you to believe. The only drawback would probably be a little longer commute for you to drive in than what you may be used to. It would be nothing here in San Diego, but, up there, it would beat people up.

One more thing, be sure to have all your vehicle windows tinted (to California regualtions, of course). You will find that it prevents your vehicle interior from fading and keeps it cooler (that being relative). Also, be ready for some windy days. Especially in the Spring and Fall.

I think you've got a pretty clear picture from all the above posts. I would like to add that on occasion I work at Edwards as a civilian contractor. I recently stopped at a new housing tract in Rosamond, which is the closest town to Edwards, just west of the base. It was scary. The entire tract was completed, but vacant. These were nice, new homes, 1500 to 2400 sq. ft. There was nobody living in them. I think you can draw your own conclusions about the market around Edwards. Lancaster is a much larger city, but at least a thirty minute drive away. Good luck.

Hey Fritzmt and Greetings to all from the Antelope Valley aka Lancaster, Palmdale, Quartz Hill, Rosamond:
My first question would be to all of the mud slinging crew here is "who of any of you have actually lived in Lancaster"? Are your critques based on fact or feelings of superiority based upon the SD supposive lifestyle? This poor guy (and military service to boot)is moving here from Dayton and I am sure that you are totally scaring the day lights out of him with all of your talk of trash, horror, and skin heads in Lancaster. The RE advice is warranted but the rest of the comments are trash in and of itself.
Fritzmt I have lived in Lancaster since 1990. I grew up in the Studio City and Universal Studios area of the San Fernando Valley, but you could not pay me to go back there. In the Antelope Valley you will find NO traffic, NO smog,No road rage, lots of ranches, tract homes and wide open space. You are close to everything from Magic Mountain amusement park, good clean beaches in Ventura are only 1.5 hrs away, sking water or snow is less than an hour, dirt bike riding, and LA County Race Way. And by the way, I also happen to work at EdwardsAFB and have for the last few years. It is an Air Force Base to be proud of for all that we do and all of the people it takes to do it.I am sure that you and your family will feel right at home. As you know the base is undergoing a major rebuild with lots of new housing. The houses are all large and have really great layouts. The desert is very warm in the summer and very windy in the spring. Beware only if you have hayfever and allergies other wise you will all be fine. I would settle for a cool breeze over Keesler and Eglin humidity any day. Now for rent vs buy. . . .correct me if I am wrong but doesn't the AF reimburse the closing costs and commision on your purchase and sale. Also if you cannot sell your home when you PCS will the AF not buy it back at the avg of three approved RE appraisals. Considering your BAH is $2200 you could easily rent a nice newer 3 or 4 bd home for much less than that and pocket the difference for other bills or savings. You will get more for your $ in Rosamond but the commute though closer takes longer. East side Lancaster is your best bet for easy base access, short fast commute, lots of housing to choose from, local shopping, etc. I also highly recommend the base schools and child care center if you have kids they are outstanding. Welcome to Lancaster and Edwards!!! We are good normal people we have pride in our city and though tumble weeds may fly here we do not sling mud.

lancaster... home of the killer attack tumbleweeds...

you may want to check out the santa clarita valley south of palmcaster. some 40 min commute, but nicer and much more developed. unless they've also seen a similar boom.

property values in this neighborhoood are probably stable:
http://www.corr.ca.gov/visitors/fac_pris...

drunkle-
In all fairness you forgot to note the link to the prison in Castaic located in the Santa Clarita Valley. Also well known for its wild fires set by boys from the local lockdown homes and facility.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/157...

And Santa Clarita to Edwards AFB would put him at a 1.5hr commute. It is 40 mins just to get to Palmdale.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on March 26, 2007 - 10:24am.

No Way.

Three reasons:

1. I would never buy a house that I intended to own for less than 5 years.

2. I would not a buy a home now in Southern California

3. I would never buy a home in Lancaster.

Pretty much exactly what I was thinking! 

Ponynround - In all fairness to YOU.

Perhaps our intrepid Ohioan should look at quality of life stats - say between Santa Clarita and Lancaster:

Santa Clarita
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/...

Lancaster
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/...

Ya gotta love the crime stats of Lancaster. You say that there are intentionally set brush fires near Santa Clarita and a prison in Castaic, but apparently that pales in comparison to the personal crime risk, property crime risk, personal crime incidents and property crime incidents (per 100,000 people) of Lancaster.

And let's look at Leisure and Culture, shall we? Lancaster is sorely lacking compared to Santa Clarita. I can't even imagine what the schools are like - but since you talked up the base schools, I gather you aren't a fan of Lancaster's public schools either.

And for the record - I'm not from San Diego or Santa Clarita. I live in Los Angeles. I've never lived in Lancaster nor do I want to. I don't have to live in South Central Los Angeles to know it's not a desirable place to live, just as I don't have to live in Beverly Hills, Rolling Hills Estates or Pacific Palisades to know they would be good areas to live in. When your kids get busted for dealing drugs with their gangster thug friends, look in the mirror. You're the one who chose to strand them in Lancaster and by doing so you've messed them up for the rest of their lives. But worry not - you can visit them in the Castaic prison!

To All:
I appreciate and respect each and every comment I've receieved so far in this message string. My wife and I have decided to rent, given the data we've witnessed here and from other sources. Even a Professor at the USC Lusk Institute (for Real Estate in Southern California) confirmed this approach given our situation and the state of the Real Estate economy in SoCal.
Unfortunately, we don't get to choose where we get stationed in the military, only the way we choose to live once we get there. As such, until we find data which supports otherwise, we'll be sending our children to school on base at Edwards--a 9 out of 10 Standardized Test scoring versus 1s, 2s and 3s elsewhere in Rosamond, Lancaster and Palmdale. Most likely we will rent in Rosamond or Lancaster and carpool with other military families in similar situations.
As a Lieutenant, I started my career at Los Angeles AFB and lived in Manhattan Beach and Redondo Beach--13 years ago. Such a different situation, given that we did not have children at the time. How different things are now that Children (and their education) drives the entire search for our home, eh? That said, we are ill-equipped to withstand the negative effects of a poor home investment: especially of the magnitude discussed on this board. As such, we will use our relative buying power as renters in a depressed and further depressing market to negotiate a rental that suits our needs until either the housing market improves (unlikely within the short period of our stay) or the housing project on base is completed.
Thanks again for the candid and informative responses. I look forward to reading any others that you may have to offer. As for you, Ponynaround, I look forward to the opportunity to run into you and shake your hand on base some day!

Here's the comment I got from the professor at the USC Lusk Center, it was very informative and from a knowledgable source regarding the metadata associated with home purchases in the area:

Dear Major,

Even though fixed mortgage rates are still very low, there has indeed been a price run up in LA County during the past five years. The market is cooling and further gains are likely to remain flat for the next few years. The area that you are considering in the Antelope Valley has some of the least expensive rents. Since you may be leaving in two to four years and seeling the house, it is not an ideal time to buy. These decisions are always very personal and everyone's situation is different. So, good luck with your decision.

NAME REMOVED, TITLE REMOVED (but high up)
Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast, USC Lusk Center Associate Professor, Marshall School of Business University of Southern California Bridge Hall 401E Los Angeles, CA 90089-0809

fritzmt -

I think you are getting good advice,including that from the USC Lusk Center.

Good luck to you and your family on your move.
Thank you for your service to this country.

Here is a new school of thought.
Anyone that puts their house up on the market for higher than they paid for ... is a flipper if they bought it with the idea that sometime in the future they will sell it for more.
How is that ...
The question at any time in any market is ... will I be able to flip it for more ... no time frame specified ... that's what you need to ask a Real-T-Whore. If they start a long winded BS ... fire them and go to the next ...
Cool.
Cow_tipping.