San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

You betcha, and it will tear the hearts out of the greedy homeowners living there.

Lots of old money in Pt Loma. It will come down eventually. In fact it already has dropped some. Be patient and let it come to you otherwise it will frustrate you alot.

You can get the same house in Barstow for 200k...so what. The reason you're so pissed is because it's in Point Loma. lol THAT'S why they are priced like that.

btw, the chances of Point Loma houses come down like Temecula is zero. There's a mountain of baby boomers with fat retirements to keep prices up.

Plumosa is also one of the best micro-areas of Pt. Loma. PL is an older neighborhood with really interesting topography and older-neighborhood charm (not tract home development feel like MM, CV or CVR). Spouse and I were REALLY trying to buy in PL back in '98 or '99 and it was already WAAY out of our range even back then and we were professional DINKS back then.

The REALLY nice areas on the top of the peninsula will have views of water in both directions...can't get that in Texas or Barstow. Schools are crappy though. We hope it comes down too.

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I guess it's been covered but Pt Loma is expensive because its not Texas or Sacto.

I would guess the old money houses there will be handed down to their kids rather then sold before hand.

John

Could be John. I have posted my opinions before about the dichotomy of old money verses new money neighborhoods. In an environment where you have two similar runups but one is say a Pt Loma verses perhaps a Carmel Valley or Santa Luz naturally I would put a slower decline in Pt Loma. One of the factors is one you pointed out or to broaden the scope, the sellers are probably suited with many other options rather then having to sell. I would also anticipate a higher volume of speculation occurred in the newer areas. Looking at the number of broker or realtor owned homes is staggering in these new areas. So yeah there is no doubt in my mind that there will be more foreclosures and such distress in the newer areas. It is not say classic Pt Loma will not or has not come down because it will. I just don't believe it will be as fast as many people want nor as grand of a scale as people want.

Conversely, people in old money neighborhoods can afford to lower their prices, because, by and large, they have lots of equity.

Pt Loma can only come down if there's a shortage of buyers because they find better deals elsewhere. Declines in old-money neighborhoods will probably trail comparable new-money neighborhoods.

Slightly off topic but....
I talked to realtor recently in Coronado who said that 75% of his deals in the last few months have been cash or mostly cash. He seemed to think this was bullish. lol! In the next breath he told me how hard it is to get financing and that no one wants a loan over $500k because the interest rates are too high.

Yes it is close to downtown and the coast but do not see the advantages of Point Loma except being close to the airport and far from tech jobs.

Yes, it is far from tech jobs if you ignore the 5 or 6 thousand employees and contractors that work at the SPAWAR facility there and in Old Town.

I know a woman who recently inherited her mom's Pt. Loma home (plus the mom's tax basis). In a few months, we, the taxpayers of SD, are going to pay for whatever authority it is that is giving her new windows and A/C because of airport noise.

bumping this top to get all the politics OT threads at the bottom.

True but 99% of tech IT jobs are in the Sorrento Valley/Mira Mesa area.

For me, only reason why I even want to buy in Point Loma is because I work as a consultant and travel to the airport each week. I don't want an hour drive to the airport. Just sucks that Point Loma is hella overpriced and expensive. I will see what happens in next 1-2 years.

I agree with FLU

True but 99% of tech IT jobs are in the Sorrento Valley/Mira Mesa area.

Not quite true - many IT jobs are in Rancho Bernardo.

I agree! I've been hanging out in Austin this summer and though Austin is a cool city, it just doesn't compare to the lifestyle that can be found on the west coast. I also think that some people are mistaken about the cost of homes in Texas. Yes they are cheap, but not that cheap in the nicer areas. In fact, in Austin the more hip urban areas, homes go for quite a bit - like $575K for an 1200 sq. foot house. That's a lot in my book, especially if there is no ocean nearby and it's a 100 degrees outside. Granted you can get a stone McMansion in Round Rock for 350K (with 10,000 per year taxes), but personally I have no interest in that lifestyle.

Pt Loma is a special place, with old money, but with patience should come down some.

bump

seattle - Good point on including the property taxes. They are much higher in Texas. And saying that Round Rock is living in Austin is like saying Temecula is living in San Diego. It's out there. Bedroom community like any others. It's not the Austin lifestyle that is advertised.

Anyone roughly know the rough tech/it distribution in Sorrento V versus RB? 50/50%, 60/40%... I know... I know difficult question.

I've always thought RB to be more a retirement type community (seniors).

Long-time Piggington reader, first time poster.

I guess I'm one of the greedy homeowners, I live a few blocks from there. I love Pt Loma, it's a good fit for me personally. Low key vibe, genteel old folks, cool weather. I can ride my bike to work (downtown) along the bay, on the weekend I sometimes ride to the lighthouse. Daily I am thankful to live there.

I have lived in Pt Loma since 2000, except for 2 years we moved away to a McMansion in South Bay (or as I called it, "The MicroCastle"). I found this site around 2004, and it scared me into selling the new house, for which I am sooooo glad. Many thanks to the doomsayers on this board :) You gave me the reinforcement I needed to drag my wife kicking & screaming out of a new "all granite countertops" house and back into an original 1950 cottage. Under the Lindbergh flightpath too :)

In reference to the house for sale, seems to me it's not selling. Neither are the two around the corner on Hyacinth/Lotus. Months on the market, plenty of open houses, but no sales. I think the prices are falling, but you don't see that reflected if the sale is not made. As the wife & I say, rolling our eyes, re the high asking prices around our neighborhood, "I hope they get it." But they don't.

Why don't they lower their price? I don't know for sure. But of my neighbors, the majority are long-time residents. And when I say longtime, for some that means 50+ years. Plenty of old folks, may not have to sell for money. If they're offended by "low" offers, maybe they just sit tight?

But you know what really rips my heart out? That I did not connect the dots to short sell those companies holding securitized subprimes. I had all the facts in the hopper, and I even bailed out of properties based on my belief in a major downturn. Just didn't put it together. Doh!

And lastly, kudos to Mr. Toscano for starting this site. I suspect it's done a lot of people a lot of good. Shoulda said that years ago...

At the very least, it's given those of us who missed the boat a nice, group-therapy experience to come commiserate and conjecture about when we should stop toe-dipping and dive in ourselves (i.e., when the bottom truly hits). Enjoy your cottage--wish I had pushed the hubby into buying that cute little cottage back in '98 for only $450k (that now goes for nearly twice that). But you can't change the past....