Where will be the next bubble - Stock?

User Forum Topic
Submitted by NicMM on May 14, 2008 - 11:48am

These headline news caught my eyes and made me thinking the direction of stock market in near future. What's your thought?

Schwab's New Assets Push Up Profit:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12082650...
Charles Schwab April daily average client trades up 15% to 295,500:
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/...

Submitted by nostradamus on May 14, 2008 - 2:41pm.

Motor scooters? link

Or, as we discussed before, things relating to baby boomers (depends undergarments, cruise ships, coffins, etc). No offense to boomers.

Submitted by gnosis on May 14, 2008 - 3:09pm.

Read iTulip.com
Wake up and smell the Alt-Energy and Infrastructure!

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 3:09pm.

I bought a Vespa LX 150 almost two years ago. Sold it last spring and treated myself to a classic 1961 Vespa 150. It is awesome!! I LOVE it. Bought a rare 1966 Vespa SuperSport 180 for hubby. He did a ground-up restore on it. Everywhere we go, people stare and comment.

The gas mileage it great and perfect for jaunts, running errands or to the beach. Never have to worry about parking.

I was really bummed to hear about the Vespa rider downtown that got hit by the SUV that cut him off. But I'll wager when gas is 200 a barrel, that'll put an end to SUVs.

Submitted by nostradamus on May 14, 2008 - 3:24pm.

Wow jp, that sounds like fun. Those scooters bring back memories of high school. I have a 750cc motorcycle now (Honda Shadow Spirit, "American Classic Edition") link which gets good mileage but I rented a scooter when I was staying on an island and it was lots of fun.

Submitted by NicMM on May 14, 2008 - 3:24pm.

Consider people rarely carpool to work, it is really economic and environment friendly to ride scooter. San Diego weather is especially amiable for biking or scooting. But we really need better bike lanes for that.

Submitted by nostradamus on May 14, 2008 - 3:50pm.

Have you been to Taiwan or China? Scooters seem to be the main method of transportation! There are sooooo many zipping about.

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 3:58pm.

nostradamus - funny that you mention high school. I had a street legal Yamaha 80 back then. Found one on Craigslist in pretty good condition and bought it. I used it to take the motorcycle test. I actually went to DMV last Friday and passed. Been renewing the permit every year, but now I officially have an M1.

Anyway, when I used to live in Italy, there were so many scooters about. Gas is super expensive over there. I always wanted a Vespa and w/the way gas prices are, it just made sense. If I didn't have to lug a huge steamer trunk to work, I'd take the Vespa to work too.

(maybe I should check into a sidecar)

Submitted by LAAFTERHOURS on May 14, 2008 - 4:19pm.

4s Renter

Itulip - Thats the biggest mess of a website.

I have been looking at the Kymcho Venox - Small 250cc bike to get for my commute. Only problem is transporting the newborn to daycare. But 16 miles through RSF roads would be a lot more pleasant on a Venox.

Submitted by nostradamus on May 14, 2008 - 4:23pm.

Congrats on the M1 license. I took a motorcycle course run by the CHP and if you pass the course, they waive the dmv road test when you go to get your license. Out of 28 people who started the course, 8 people finished it. It was intense and one f-up and they kick you out! Back then passing this course lowered your insurance premium too.

A sidecar would be funny and you'd have to make sure and wear those round goggles too.

So you can drive a stick, ride a motorcycle, work out every day, are in great shape, witty and well-versed, are 37 (like me), have no kids, but are married? DAMN IT

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 4:42pm.

I went on a Vespa rally the other weekend. I'm such a dork, but this is me pulling into Kate Sessions park on my turquoise green Vespa.

You forgot the most important thing, I like to think of myself as a Pigg. Alas, yes, married. Technically, we're still newlyweds.

http://scoot.net/gallery/pic.html?pic=31...

Submitted by nostradamus on May 14, 2008 - 4:45pm.

Looks like a fun group. Cool scooter! What's with the hot dog dude?

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 4:56pm.

I guess each rally has a theme. This was a hot dog rally. There were only about 30 scooters.

They had a BIG one in Vegas, I think January. Thousands of Vespas.

edit - I didn't realize they added more photos on the site. Here's one of me on the road. We started at Gelato Vero, went through downtown, PL, OB, PB, LJ and up to Mt. Soledad before stopping at Kate Sessions.

http://scoot.net/gallery/pic.html?pic=31...

Submitted by atr on May 14, 2008 - 5:34pm.

Okay, that looks totally fun! I have always wanted a Vespa.

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 5:45pm.

atr - I can't even tell you how much fun it is. I put a little basket on the back of my bike and use it when I go grocery shopping, too. Sure hurts a lot less at the pump.

If anyone decides to get a Vespa - warning and caution: do NOT buy one of those Vietnamese Vespas. There were a bunch of Vespas shipped to Vietnam literally in pieces (sawed in half) There's many being sold on Ebay. These bikes look GREAT. In fact, the paint job is the best and only thing about them (no laws on lead-based paint there) They hack-job welded the bikes together and used parts from different models and used weird tools we don't have here to assemble them.

I hear horror stories of people spending 3k and have the bike break on them. Motorsport, the scooter store in North Park, refuses to work on the Vietnamese bikes. You will end up having to buy a new motor, 2k at least, to get it running again.

Anyone thinking of buying an older Vespa, there's many websites out there that describe in detail what to look out for.

Submitted by atr on May 14, 2008 - 6:10pm.

jp--are they hard to balance on? My husband was a motorcycle rider for years, until he was in an accident in 2006. (he was okay, his bike. . . not so much!) I have always been a little bit of a chicken, but that made me even more so! Do you just ride on main streets and avoid the freeway? I know they have versions that go faster than others.

That striped special edition version they came out with a few years ago was sooooo cute!

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 6:28pm.

I do not take my Vespa on the freeway. The 2006 Vespa LX 150cc I had was fast enough to go on the freeway. Did it one time and that was it. Too wobbly. Wouldn't do it unless I got a steering stablizer. I feel more comfortable on smaller side streets, but have taken main streets before.

The new Vespa 250 have bigger wheels and are very fast. No problem going on the freeway.

My old '61 top speed is about 45-50. Fast enough for me to run errands and go to the beach. I am never in a hurray where I have to race somewhere. If I need to go somewhere real quick, I'll just take the TT.

It takes a while to get used to riding them. The Vespa LX was - gasp - an automatic. So pretty much girl friendly. The older ones you have mix oil and gas and you have to change gears. Fine w/me, since I used to ride around on the 80 and don't have a problem using a clutch. But the gear shifter is on the handlebar when you pull in the clutch, turn the handle into gear. A little unusual.

I think my 80 was much easier to ride and handle.

Did someone cut your husband off? What happened? Glad he's ok. That's one thing about Italy, at least where I went, there were more scooters than cars.

Submitted by atr on May 14, 2008 - 6:41pm.

Wow. Now I am having serious Vespa envy. A slower one on side streets sounds just about my speed! I could even probably learn to shift the hand clutch, as I, too, drive a stick!

As for my hubbie. . . he was riding a new, very large bike (a Kawasaki VTX 1800, I think?) and hit some loose gravel going around a curve. Lost control, and the bike slide a long way with him on it and then hit a curb and went up and over into a field. Sigh. He is very fortunate in that he came away with only a badly sprained ankle and lots of road rash. His bike was pretty much totaled, and he decided to hang it up. I think that long slide on the bike was a little too close for comfort, and since he likes plenty of other slightly dangerous hobbies, he decided to eliminate that one until our kiddo is an adult.

Geez, sorry to everyone else for having hijacked this post!
My vote for the next bubble is alternate energy sources.

EDIT: I meant a Kawasaki Vulcan. Shows you how much I (don't) know about motorcycles! I think Honda makes the VTX. In any case, it was big, it was new, and now it is gone.

Submitted by nostradamus on May 14, 2008 - 8:03pm.

My brother had a monstrous Valkyrie 1800cc but when he rented a scooter once, he wiped out because he applied the front brake sharply, the front shocks had a lot of give, it was much lighter than what he was used to, and he flipped over! He seriously hurt his hand. Never laid down the Valkyrie once!

Here's my riding partner on my bike... I'm not one to dress up dogs but on the bike one must have eye protection (plus she is fully harnessed).

Submitted by atr on May 14, 2008 - 8:17pm.

Cute riding partner, Nostradamus!

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 8:27pm.

Great photo! I agree. Must wear eye protection while riding. Does your dog really ride w/you? Not scared? Doesn't try to jump off? Got a harness on her, like a seat belt? Too cute! I love it. So she's your girl ;)

Definitely have to watch the brakes on some scooters. If not maintained w/right oil in forks, you'll be flipping, and not houses, either.

Submitted by nostradamus on May 14, 2008 - 8:31pm.

Thanks! Yes, she rides with me. If I take off without her she'll chase me until I let her on. In the car she's always hanging her head out the window so I guess she has no problem on the bike and seems to prefer it. She rides half on my lap, half on the gas tank (which is all scratched up by her claws). She never tried to jump off but I don't allow much slack on the harness either.

Submitted by sdduuuude on May 14, 2008 - 8:29pm.

Wow. This sure is an intriguing and enlightening article about the next bubble.

Submitted by jpinpb on May 14, 2008 - 11:11pm.

Those little dogs are amazing. I remember seeing one that surfed. I guess yours is just a tough biker dog/chick ;)

Submitted by masayako on May 15, 2008 - 12:03am.

1. This surely is the best thread hijack of all times.

2. Scooter business is the next bubble. Buy them now.

Submitted by LAAFTERHOURS on May 15, 2008 - 8:55am.

4s Renter

I thought scooter's werent allowed to go over 30 mph according to CA DMV?

Can someone explain the scooter laws on Speed, roads etc. Im not looking to go 60 mph on one but knowing the law would be useful.

Submitted by Alex_angel on May 15, 2008 - 9:04am.

The Euro is going to imnplode on itself and the next big business is going to be Russian oil.
Countries like Cyrpus, Greece, Malta and Slovenia cannot and will not be able to sustain such a high Euro amount. Eventually it will collapse on itself.

Submitted by jpinpb on May 15, 2008 - 9:10am.

LAAFTERHOURS - I am not sure about CA DMV. Perhaps you're thinking of a moped. Depending on the CC you will need a motorcycle permit/license. I think a 50 cc you don't need a license and anything higher, you do.

As far as how fast they can go, they are limited by cc not by the law. The speed limit is the same set speed, as far as I know.

Submitted by fat_lazy_union_... on May 15, 2008 - 10:03am.

Interesting spin..

"Money Managers Turn More Bullish"

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080514/funds.html

Kinda sucks to have sold all my Chevron/Texaco stock I had since the early 80ies and on top of that having bought a small portion of SDS ultrashort oil/gas. Also sucks that my one outstanding small short position on a retailer (gymboree) isn't cooperating these days.

But I'm not complaining, since it's nice to see the rest of my portfolio dong better and even slightly green this year, considering I was getting pretty wacked by the big tech companies earlier this year.

Time will tell. I have no clue what the markets are going to do. 

 

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

Submitted by nostradamus on May 15, 2008 - 10:33am.

that sucks flu. I'm slightly above break-even with my "recession-proof" stocks in Johnson and Johnson and Proctor/Gamble. With my short on UPS which I hypothesized (I think on one of Alex_Angel's previous threads) would be hard hit by fuel costs, I'm up 4%. Had it for about a month.

With articles like this one in today's WSJ I wish I shorted FedEx as well as UPS but I like FedEx so didn't short it (stupid emotions).

Submitted by fat_lazy_union_... on May 15, 2008 - 12:53pm.

nostradamus (and anyone else),

I'm curious, you folks want to share what individual stocks you folks are playing in these days?  I'm curious what people are doing  (aside from the traditional safe(r) index funds/precious metals funds/international funds in vanguard and IRAs/401ks)

I don't mind sharing (and like i said, it ain't all pretty). Purely on speculation right now (no idea how things will turn out):

Long positions

Banks: BAC, C

Tech : AMD,  EMC, HPQ, IBM,INTC, JNPR, MSFT, NTAP, NVDA, TSM

Telco: ERIC, MOT ,QCOM (writing monthly  covered calls against an otherwise non-moving stock)

Boring: GE, MO, PM, INTU, XLP,DD, ADM

Short positions:

Energy: DUG

Retail:  GYMB, PLCE (hedged with call options)

Tech: YHOO (damn you, Icahn :) ) ,  NOK

Yes, I'm tech heavy on top. My short positions are getting killed right now, followed by BAC which is currently down 10%. I was doing fine with Yahoo (after the deal was called off and I entered a short position)...that was until mr. Icahn well stuck his nose in things. AMD and C are actually doing decent, considering how low expectations are :) on the street, go figure... I'm counting on the weak dollar to prop up earnings in tech co's that do a good portion of biz overseas.

 

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!