San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

Don't worry Tsunami V5.0 is coming this year.

And if you exclude short sales, inventory looks even smaller, especially in the areas I'm looking at (4S, Carmel Valley, etc).

So I'm just sitting here watching and waiting.

"Tsunami V5.0" I think that will happen about the same time as Ron Pauls inauguration.

The Super Bowl just passed and this is the first weekend. Tonite is the night the uptick should start and it should start coming steadily not all at once.

People don't act instantly. It usually takes time to get rolling, talk to realtors, decide on a price, and enter into the MLS.

I bet you won't see a significant uptick for 3 weeks to a month.

I just ran some numbers for a bunch of ZIPS I am watching. The weekly average was about 65 homes/week for those ZIPS. In the last 7 days the number was 90. Its coming. It always does.

It probably varies quite a bit by area.

This graph shows inventory actually dropped in Scripps Ranch in Feb 2011:

And this chart by Rich himself shows that in some years, overall San Diego inventory increased in February. In some years, it didn't:

http://piggington.com/may_2011_resale_da...

(see 7th chart down, entitled "San Diego Resale Inventory")

Correct I am commenting on typical secular patterns we see. It can really vary in sub markets. What doesnt vary is that lots of new inventory always hits the market starting now. How fast it is being absorbed by the market is more variable and sales can always exceed the volume of new listings taking inventory down. I guess I was more addressing the issue of fresh new inventory. Hope that all made sense

FWIW, I wrote offers for 5 different clients yesterday. I know I'm slammed with business but that doesnt mean everyone else is.

I'm looking to buy more investment property and the zips I watch are still WAY down in inventory from the last 3 yeas.

Also an anecdotal note is that almost every property I go and see has other buyers there looking at it. The last few years I almost never saw other buyers at properties. Some properties are like Grand Central Station!

I personally think the deals are the worst I've seen since the tax credit. But remember the tax credit caused a period of multiple offers and craziness, and then when it went away, prices dropped 10-15% in a lot of places. So if this really tight inventory situation goes away and more stuff comes on, maybe we will see something similar?

But it just feels like there is more demand right now. People are less fearful about jumping in, less fearful that that "other shoe" is still waiting to drop, the local economy appears to be improving and sellers seem a little cockier with price than I have seen. A bummer if you are a buyer looking for a deal.

I hear even Phoenix is WAY down in inventory and getting 20 offers on many properties.

Pretty much what I've seen but I dont think its impossible to get a deal because prices are at a deal level many places. The problem is many of todays buyers have gotten too ingrained with the idea of always getting a better deal.When prices were 500 they wanted them to be 450, then they dropped to 450 and the wanted them to be 400, then they dropped to 400 and they wanted 350, then they dropped to 350 and they wanted 300. Now they are at 300 and they want lower because they have gotten to0 accustomed to wanting an even better deal. Right now find the great house fairly valued in the current market and lock in at todays low interest rates. That is the deal.

I agree with you sdrealtor on just going for it if something is fairly valued. However my thing is not wanting a "deal" at $50k less as in your example...for me it's more looking back at what similar properties were going for back in 2009 or 2011...I'm just wanting that those prices, not less. I'm not wanting to pay 10-15% more than that those prior years, as I've seen some listings come on at in 2012.

Totally agree! It doesn't happen in a flash, you have to wait for about a month or so to see the impact.

Bean, scrabble free