San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

bear market rallies are normal. i doubt it's over. I've kept 15% in prudentbear since the meltdown last summer, cash and gold. i'd move a bit more to prudentbear if we hit 9,000.

Well I'm kinda pissed at myself for pussing out on a two week double my money stock buy that I mentioned in another thread, now I feel I missed the boat on my pics. About two weeks ago I threw out a entertainment fund scenario where I was going to buy 1k each of six stocks and backstop them as soon as they doubled. I found what I thought were some oversold names that got beat up for no reason or were so cheap but I felt they would survive even if they were priced to go bankrupt. Ford, harley, costco, ge, phillip morris, and citi.

I solicited lots of opinions, both here and in my real world, I read some views from experts, thought about it and eventually just held tight with the cash. I don't even need to tell you what happened, it is exactly what happens when I dont trust myself, happens every time. We are never going to get to guns and canned food time, ignoring fundamentals like 3x p/e ratios is exactly why I deserve what I got, nuttin. Ge, harley, ford and citi have already doubled, costco is up about 20% and phillip morris is up a bit.

But that 6k made about two bucks sitting in my money market fund these two weeks, so I got that going for me, which is nice.

I guess I can take solace in the fact that I would have taken that 5k I would have made and thrown it away on sin and hedonistic pursuits next weekend on my annual boys trip, and who needs that. Let's see, I would have paid the 1500 in taxes and then spent the other 3500 partying, drinking $100 bottles of wine, smoking $20 cigars, and probably ending up in some bordello with four porn stars at the same time. Then when I die, I'll go to hell and regret the whole thing or at least pretend to regret it. Maybe I'll take my two bucks in interest and donate it to charity, then I'll feel like a better person, yeah right!!

I hope you have better luck on your trips than I do. I always depart, sober, with a reasonable spending plan ... and it always ends the same way. I'm awoken the next day with a hangover by the fraud prevention department of some financial institution: "Did you authorize the purchase of two bottles of liquor for $300 that you can normally get at Ralph's for $10 each?" or some other ridiculous thing/things.

I guess it's the audacity of hope that keeps me coming back for more (or maybe its that one special stripper who I know for sure in my drunken, self-deluded state will go home with me if I just buy enough lap dances).

Just look at a weekly chart of the Cash SP500 it will give you some perspective on this rally, it is in my blog. This bounce does not look like much when you view it that way.

Although I am long the futures on a short term trade, I am looking for a short position entry to setup to reverse my trade. As I state in my blog, I expect this rally to last into May/June, then another sharp down leg to follow. In analyzing the COT report, I do not see anything in there to indicate we have seen the ultimate low yet. There has been some buying but not a large amount.

My opinions on Barry and the interns (Obama and Co. )do not effect how I invest/trade my money.

Congrats! You now have about the same amount of money in the DOW as you did in December 1997. What a rally!

It's just another five hundred points that have to come off when people realize that the existing home sales data showed the weakness of highend households in resisting foreclosure. Then right under the rally the Fed quietly transferred the Bear Stearns and AIG bad assets to the Treasury in a smelly poop for gold swap.

Chris, I agree that we have gotten ahead of ourselves here. But while I was previously thinking we'd head down to 600, now I'm not so sure. I think it's 60/40 that we hold the recent low, that perhaps that was The Bottom.

Do you think the next leg down will take out the previous low? 600?

What does your voodoo tell you? (To be clear, I only call it voodoo because I don't understand it - not that it's not valuable.)

SRS. Today is a good entry point. This rally has more to go, but only so the shorts can load up again. Nothing has been solved. I liked Chris's phrase, "Barry and the interns." Its like Bushonomics, but with a black face.

I think Dean Kunstler said it best in his blog:

If central casting called for a poised, straight-talking, and capable-seeming president, it would be hard to come up with someone better than the Barack Obama who walked and talked around the White House grounds with Steve Croft on "60-Minutes" Sunday night. He may perfectly represent the majority who elected him, though, because he also appears to be in full commanding denial of the realities overtaking our American experience.
Those realities include the fact that we can't possibly return to the easy credit and no money down "consumer" economy no matter how many nominal dollars get shoveled into the fiery furnaces of banks too-big-to-fail. As Treasury Secretary Geithner's underling, Stephanie Cutter, said last week, "Our singular focus is on increasing lending to support economic recovery. Everything we do to stabilize the financial system is done with that goal in mind."

In other words, if you think that was the bottom, sold to you!
Josh

I'm not an expert, but I'll comment anyway.

As for this week, anytime the gov't agrees to give banks another trillion I'm not surprised the market rallies.

Another win for Wall Street, another loss for what's left of middle America!

There's been a BS confidence building campaign going on for about 2 weeks now.

Keep buying canned goods....

I'm with you P. When GM announced that they wouldn't need the $2Bn allotted for March, it was an obvious insider manipulation of the markets. GM is on the road to BK. Who wants to bet me that they don't get that green check in the first week of April?

Sucker rally that's already retraced quite well from 6400. But we need some series of bad news to start coming in. Right now we're seeing semi-good news trickle in. But quarterly reports should start to rear their ugly heads soon. Maybe this sucker rally starts to fold in mid-April?

Don't look now, but even Dr. Doom Roubini has some hope for the Geithner Plan.

As for "we need some series of bad news to start coming in" -- whoa there, I'd like to be able to afford a house as much as the next guy, but hoping for bad news I am not.

Hoping's got little to do with it. I feel certain It's coming. If I didnt, I wouldnt bother stating it. It's not "if", it's "when".