San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

What traffic problems are you referring to? It is pretty close to both the 15 and the 56. There are plenty of roads going in and out. Right now it doesn't connect to the 4S ranch area, but it will soon. I don't see traffic as an issue relative to the rest of the county.

I agree that mello-roos are brutile. 1.9% is a lot to pay especially when you get to the more expensive homes. Unfortunately I think that is really hurting the builders. Another reason I don't like prop 13.

From what I understand, sales have been a bit slow. Construction has slowed down but still moving.

Proposition 13 is another market distortion that makes housing less liquid since it tends to keep people in their houses longer than they should be. Plus, if the old people get huge tax bills, then they'd be forced to move. That would drive down the price of housing.

Del Sur's not worth it. Expensive houses with no driveways and backyards. Who wants a courtyard?

At build out there will be over 2,000 new units in the area. With the only road leading to the South already built to it's full width, it will be cloged up at about the half build out point. It will take about 30-min just to get on the 56 at Camino Del Sur. As far as the connection through 4S Ranch. Yeah, real good idea. The freeway on-ramp at Camino Del Norte is already at LOS D. Just wait unitl 4S Ranch and Del Sur are at full build out. lol... So it will take you about 45 to get to the freeway and then another 45 to get to any of the major employments centers in SD: Sorrento Valley, UTC, Kearny Mesa or Downtown.

Nice looking community. I actually like the court yard thing. Who needs a back yard?

I'm pretty sure Camino Del Sur was built with expansion in mind.

It's not. Not north of Carmel Valley Rd, it can't be. That two lane bridge that was built as a mitigation measure from the developers of the master planned community barfed up a lot of cash to get that build and the City of San Diego could never afford a new one. Do you realize how expensive a bridge that size would cost to construct? Let's see... about 20-million. Just a kick in the bucket for the bankrupt City of San Diego. Besides, that area is zoned in a way that will restrict the expansion of that road, per the conditions set forth per the SPA plan prior to development. Basically, your SOL if you bought there. Well, that is commuting. Because i do agree that the area is super nice, that is unless there is a big fire.

Del Sur is not Rancho Santa Fe. So don't get it confused. It will always be the wanabe Rancho Santa Fe.

I agree with the prior comment. that bridge can't be expanded. One lane on each side? what were they thinking??? most of the traffic will have to go to camino del norte.

that 1.9% mello roos is a real killer. there's absolutely no reason why it had to be so expensive. it is purely the builder passing the buck to the consumer.

just remember this when you consider Del Sur:

--in 2002 a 3000 sqft home in 4S ranch was $450,000, mello roos rate was 1.5%, or $2200/year.

--in 2006 a 3000 sqft home in Del Sur was $900,000, mello roos rate now 1.9%, or $8100/year.

the house is now 100% more pricier, but the mello roos is now 270% pricier. what gives? next time you're at del sur, ask them if the price of asphalt got 270% higher over the last 4-5 years.

Yeah, I like going up to Del Sur to see what I can do to my house that I bought in 97. It's old but I only paid $200k for it in Del Cerro. It's cold in the winter and new houses are built really energy efficient. Since I have extra cash, since I bought so long ago, it's a hobby to make my house more energy efficient. And I am not about to pull money out of my house to pay for it. So the house payment and what I owe on it is getting less and less everyday. I guess that's what happens when you buy at real market value. Makes sense to me.

But it won't be fun being stuck up in Del Sur in about 10-years, when the energy crunch we just had looks like a small bump in the road compared to what we are going to face.

Enjoy the commute over priced suburbia..

I too love energy efficiency. Here are some tips.
1. insulate the whole house. Insulation is the key. Old houses are not well insulated.
2. replace windows with dual-pane windows.
3. front load clothe washer
4. energy efficient appliances
5. Tankless water heater.

It's true that new houses are more energy efficient. I'd love to buy a tear-down in Bay Park or Point Loma then build a new house.

Lostcat: "Nice looking community. I actually like the court yard thing. Who needs a back yard?"

Dogs.

I went to Del Sur yesterday. Didn't like the 1-lane road access to the community. Most houses has zero front and back yard. Also, it's farther than I thought from 56.

All communities have their issues. I think Del Sur is pretty nice. I understand about the bridge thing now. I was initially thinking if the bridge closer to Carmel Valley Road (not the one just past Santaluz).

There is a pretty wide range of properties out there. I don't think they all are yardless. And, who needs a driveway? I would rather have landscaping or house in that space. Squeeze in the sqft. ;) Ironically, San Diego has such great weather, but we build the largest houses in the smallest amount of space possible with no yards.

Anyway, if I could afford it, I would move there. I still think it has a great location. Close to 56 and 15, and not a bad ride to the beach down Del Dios -> Via De La Valle or though Fairbanks on San Dieguito Road -> Via Del La Valle. Bring the dogs to dog beach.

We were very excited to see Del Sur and they sure as heck hyped up this community quite a bit. Unfortunately it has been a huge disappointment in my opinion. It had potential to be unique but instead has dense tract homes squeezed onto the tiny lots. The greed of both the master developer and the builders to squeeze as much profit out of the land created in my opinion what is more like an apartment complex type of feel.

The mello-roos is high as well as the HOA and you really do not get much for it. Traffic will be horrible as there is only one road in and out there with high density populations at full buildout.

The only homes that have any yards are Std Pacific's Avaron and they are ridiculously over priced and those folks are so damn arrogant. My understanding is all of the builders have struggled there and all are offering incentives to move units. They have done several infommercials, parties, and events as marketing gimmicks to attract buyers. If they were not struggling, they would not incur these expenses. I am certain that you can get a good deal there, I would ask about incentives and provide a low ball offer and negotiate a price that works for you. Buying sitting inventory is best becuase the builder is incurring costs and wants to move it.

PC,
Good advice but skip the tankless water heater. Just spoke with a very good plumber/friend with a client who is buying a custom home near the beach and he recommended against one.
SDR

Are there any good sites on how to make your house more energy efficient? I know you have insulate all the pipes, buy energy efficient utilities, insulate the walls, don't flush after I crap, etc.. but are there any how to books or any agencies out there that can run an assessment on your house and tell you exactly what you need?

Del Sur did have some pretty cool solar electricity systems in the Pardee homes. They really tired to make it like Kensignton, but it didn't really turn out that way. maybe in 60 years or more it will feel more like it. Only bad thing is your commute and the distance you'll live from everything and the cost of energy is going to be out of control. bad long term investment, but good short term if you are going to have kids and you want them to go to good school. The Mellaroos is worth it vs paying for a private school.

If you want San Dieguito schools there are plenty of places in Encinitas and La Costa with no Mello Roos. Oh wait, Del Sur is not Carmel Valley but Poway schools right?

Me I just hate the yards with just about any new development.

I am into the small yard thing only because of the amount of space a larger lot consumes. We American's have gotten into this mind set that bigger is always better. If we keep building houses with huge ass yards, we're going to have to commute from Murrieta to SD to have a place with a yard. O wait, we already do that. It's just not smart planning when it comes to making a sustainable environment. America has built itself into one of the biggest wholes in the world. It will be interesting to see how we dig ourselves out. I’d much rather have a small yard, like Abby Road in England, and then have a central place where I can go hang out, feel safe, and see other people living. People just need to get it out of their heads that they need all this space to live. Not that I am moving to Del Sur anytime soon, but they do have great parks. And that’s where you should enjoy your open space playing time and dog crapping.

For those who have been to Del Sur. I'd like to ask you a few questions:

- How "dense" is it compared to 4S Ranch ?
- Most SF homes in 4S Ranch has a decent size yard (in my opinion). Are the yards in Del Sur much smaller ?
- When BobbyD said "... those folks are so arrogant", were you refering to the sale people ?

Thanks very much,
GN

gn--

Density's a tough call, but I'd say so far it's generally more dense due to the generally smaller lot sizes. It doesn't look too bad, but they've still got a lot of building to do. I looked at the master plan a while ago though and I seem to recall that they will have a significant percentage of smaller lots (< 5000 sq. feet)

Yards are generally smaller than in 4S Ranch. Small fronts and small backs. In 4S, it seems like a lot of places at least have one or the other. I have noticed that some of the newer places in 4S seem to be tending toward smaller yards as well however.

Arrogant sales people-- It's like any other place, some are arrogant, some are nice, some are great, some suck. Depends on who you get and the day you come by. I can tell you that they've had some turnover. For one development it helped, for another, it was just a different bad sales person.