San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I had the opportunity to drive through San Elijo Hills yesterday. Lots of homes for (re)sale in the various neighborhoods. Lots of new ones coming on line too. I can't imagine prices increasing there for some time. If you go to the top of the hill, it looks like an absolute sea of new housing of all kinds.

I've noticed only a slight increase of Sale signs in Poway, and more Sold signs to match. From Dec - end Feb I saw 2 sold signs, and since then, many more. I think people still are buying houses in Poway. It's a popular place for families who want the good schools but can't afford the $1.5mil and up homes in the good school districts near the coast.

The (somewhat light) forest of for sale signs showed up in Clairemont last Summer. Not alot of signs now, but many of the SAME signs have been up for several months. Lots of overpriced properties, too. A few for sale signs replace by for rent signs. I do notice lots of open house signs on Sundays.

FYI, Prices in Poway are only 5 to 10% cheaper than the coast for a comparable home in a top school district. No more...no less

The large number of open house signs posted in North Park has receded substantially in the last month or so, after blossoming abundantly this spring.

Also, open house signs are no longer typically displayed mid-week as a few had been.

For Sale signs are still abundant in the neighborhood, but there has been a huge decrease in open house signage.

The last month has seen "Price reduced" signs materializing in Coronado. However, only a few months ago sellers were listing housing at prices that were hundreds of thousands of dollars above the last comp.

There is a area in Imperial Beach that is loaded with houses for sale. The strange thing is that it seems to be located in just one area. Other neighborhoods don't seem to have as much for sale (although there is plenty).

I started tracking the listing prices in those areas. I only have data starting two weeks ago. It looks like there is a small downward trend in pricing but it could just be a natural fluctuation.

"Price reduced" signs are only relevant if you assume the initial listing prices were reasonable to begin with. Realty agents are sometimes forced to list properties at unreasonable prices as a condition of obtaining the listing, and then they have to wait for their sellers to get serious enough about selling to consider more reasonable pricing.

I pretty much ignore price reductions in a listing just as I ignore active listings as value indicators. Most of the time the only thing an active listing is good for is in establishing an upper limit of value. In a declining market that means that at least some list prices will be below some of the more dated closed sale prices.

You're right. However, it is a new development and could indicate a new trend.

Not a lot for sale in RPQ. There were actually many more for sale signs earlier in the spring. It seems that many people may have pulled homes off the market after they realized things were cooling off. Of the signs that I do see, it's the same ones and they stay up for a loooonnng time.

How about LA Costa Oaks New houses. Anyone knows ??

There does not seem to be much activity at La costa oaks, although Stoneridge seems to be having a hard time finishing out their sales.

Just up the road Rancho Carrillo seems to be hurting. I have been tracking houses there since October and many are still on the market. I've seen many houses that have been reduced by about 5-10% (whether the original asking price was reasonable is another story). I think that Rancho Carrillo is an anomaly, however, because of so many new develop coming up around it. Furthermore, despite being in Carlsbad it is located in the San Marcos school district. Why pay a Carlsbad price for San Marcos schools?

Almost sold out. Very succesful development. Early speculators taking profits with a half dozen or so resales on the market.

I went to 4 open houses in RC a couple of weeks ago. The agents were practically begging for an offer, 'any offer', on 3 of the 4 homes I went in. The 4th was staffed by a non-interested college kid "associate". I am honestly not exagerrating. By the way, if you want to see some dancing, go out there this sunday for the weekly show and start asking how long the houses have been on the market. But be sure to ask the follow up question of whether they have been relisted at a lower price. You'll feel like you are have a Perry Mason moment with just two questions.

Friends with a very nice townhouse for sale near Rancho Bernardo are about to drop their price down to 15% off the high and they aren't sure if that will be enough to move it. They have already reduced once before. They are worried about ending up one step behind the downward trend as they chase it down. This is going to happen to a lot of people!

Yup, chasing down the price...Sellers have got to be realistic or they chase down the market.

I went camping out near Campo this weekend.
Was surprised by all the for sale signs out there.
Lots of land for sale too - 120 acres, 30 acres, 18 acres, etc.

I agree with you.Thanks for the Info. Is all of RC in the San Marcos school district? The Mello roos and HOA fees are monstrous in San Elijio
The agents seem to play dumb on questions. The prices should be in the 550 -585 range as the newer subdivisions are lowering the prices.
What do you think??

Any data on how many of the sold units in San Elijo were done with ARMs, interest only, or negative amortization financing?

Any updates on prce erductions in Bressi Ranch and other developments in Carlsbad area?
Thanks for this forum. It really helps a newcomer to the area.

Any updates on price reductions ny builders in Bressi Ranch and other developments in Carlsbad area?
Thanks for this forum. It really helps a newcomer to the area.

If the house is built and ready for occupancy within 30 to 45 days you can negotiate big time deals!

So check this out!!!

This house I've been looking at in Cheesapeake Bay has actually GONE UP IN PRICE the last 30 days...it was orignally offered at 1,695,000 and is now asking 1,740,000! In looking over their latest price sheet, they have RAISED the prices on most of thier remaining houses.

They are definately on their way to being sold out so maybe they are trying to squeeze a little juice from the last ones left?

What do you negotiate on from a new builder? Price or concessions or both?

It depends on the house. Most likely they may have gotten past a construction deadline whereby they had to make upgrade choices (i.e. flooring). The increase in pricing is likely the cost of the flooring they added. I heard a story about someone that walked into the Bay Collection and negotiated $120K off the asking price, $40K for a landscapin allowance and $15K credit if they use Standard Pacifics in house lender. The key is the house has to be ready for occupancy with 30 to 45 days. Builders do not want to hold onto standing inventory.

Negotiate every thing you can. Dont be afraid to walk out the door and leave your number.

Wow, that's about 10% off the asking price. Do you think it would make sense for people who really want to buy right now to start their offer much lower and work their way up, like 15-20% below list price?

I've noticed a considerable increase in inventory in the past month; although, the sales side is still soft. However, we get a great influx of people from San Diego who move to Southern Riverside County because of the low-cost for new housing. Don't get me wrong, I love San Diego and lived there for 10 years. But can you buy a new home over 2800 square feet for less that $460,000 in San Diego? You tell me.

Dennis Tormey is a licensed attorney and real estate broker serving the Menifee Real Estate and surrounding communites in Southern Riverside County.

How many of the 44,000 people leaving San Diego last year ended up in Southern Riverside County? Probably quite a few...

Welcome to the forums, Dennis. How are sales going up there?

No you cant...not even close. But soon you'll be able to buy on in Menifee under $400,000.

No you cant...not even close. But soon you'll be able to buy one in Menifee under $400,000.

No you cant...not even close. But soon you'll be able to buy one in Menifee under $400,000.

You can't buy it for $460k but unless you work in Menifee as well, you'll be paying between 400-500/month in gas. Not to consider the many hours you spend in trafic, which either you can spend w/ your family or work overtime, I think it's not that simple to compare one to one. I'd rather spend more in SD for a similar house that's w/in 5-10 min from work than buy it for 460k in Menifee. Can you drive 10 min to the beach in Menifee? There's a reason it's cheap. You don't have to go as far as Menifee to get cheap house, You can get a 3000sq-ft house on a 22k sq-ft lot in Vista for $599k right now. You're still w/in 20 from the beach.

On second thought, that $460k house will cost you around $3000/month. I can rent a house that size for around $3k/month that's w/in 5 min of work and be w/in 10 min of the beach. Tell me which is smarter?