San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Leaving CA

This has been quite hot since at least 2004. But why MT & WY; what do they want to do there, other than just retiring? In terms of economic liveliness, South and Southeast seem to have some vitality. Also, with increasing energy costs, cold places are expensive to live.

MT & WY have: lower taxes, cheaper housing, better schools, less congestion, way lower unemployment rates, clean and honest governments, nature in abundance.
CA has: better weather.

I think no one wants to leave but feel they should so they gather strength from others who feel the same way.

John

Weather is too good in San Diego. at some point You have to do what is good for you and your family

About 50% of my high school and college friends have left CA. None have come back. Most of the rest are in the Bay area, and none of them talk about leaving much. Bay area weather, especially in summer, isn't why they are staying.

Alot of the people I have heard of wanting to leave CA are either my age (mid 20's) or my parents age with the kids gone. My parents have friends who are selling their house, buying a small condo, and moving to Idaho. Spring, summer, fall and ski weeks in Idaho; Holidays and March in Santa Barbara. Plus the taxes, and reduced crowds and clean living and such.

I've been to quite a few states, and cost of living aside, I have yet to find a place as "livable" as San Diego. The north (Idaho, Montana, etc.) gets ungodly, painfully cold in the winter. Most of the east coast and south - bugs, humidity. Central - too hot, too dry, or both. Northwest - too wet, overcast.

My wife wants to pay cash for a house in small-town America where they have actual seasons, and I'm all for that, but I haven't seen one that didn't have its own issues - full of ignorant hicks, too small, too artsy, too popular with tourists, too far off the beaten path. If anyone knows of a good compromise, I'd love to hear it.

I suspect once they get one cold winter they will be back to the south-west.

If you are looking for a place to retire Arizona isn't too bad.

For active people it just doesn't get any better than SD. If you like sports and staying in shape, this is the place to be.

I would consider moving, but then I see the fat people talking about life in the South or Midwest...

I almost got in a fight this weekend when someone tried to steal my volleyball and the dude called me a "20-year-old-jerk". It wasn't a very good insult considering I'm 37 but I do lots of sports in SD and he was clearly a tourist from elsewhere (paunchy, pasty, and white).

Maybe it's good that we don't have the best restaurants in the world, yet another reason to keep us in shape.

Sorry for all the geographic fatness generalizations, feel free to thrash me for it.

Way to go. Fit for life.

First, I want to say I enjoy your posts, but this one brought me out of lurkmode.

For how long? And what about professional-type careers?

You have compelling perspective and experience to back this?

That's what expats say about every other place in America, especially the place they moved to. It's hard to take seriously anymore.

Yes, it's hard to match the majesty of the Tetons but the whole mountains, deserts and beaches thing doesn't do it for you?

And what's the median house price in Casper?

hahahaha!

http://www.casperidx.com/search_results.php?site_id=990&name=&email=&phone=&type_keeper=type_0&class_id=1&Submit=Search+Properties&area[]=all&bedrooms=3&bathrooms=2&price_range_low=&price_range_high=&sqft_min=&sqft_max=&acres_min=&acres_max=&street_name=&mls=&srt=&listing_count=10

Ren, I dont think your goldylocks city exists. Everywhere has its problems, and you can always find them if you want to look. San Diego has June gloom or excessive heat, no seasons, a total lack of greenery and trees, Humidity and thunderstorms, Santa Anna's that rival hurrican winds, Fire's that burn the county down, earthquakes, Land slides, Fighter jets that feel it is ok to buzz buildings at 11:30pm.............. you name it and someone can find it. Even here in San Diego, where apparently everything is perfect.

In the late 80's/early 90's everyone from CA was leaving to go to Seattle and Portland. (No state income tax in WA, no sales tax in OR.) Houses were much more affordable... as with any supply & demand - housing prices promptly went up... pissing off the locals. (I was someone who moved up North at the time - to take a job... I'd been downsized here in San Diego... took me 12 years to get back to my native San Diego.)

There will always be people moving out of California and into California.

I've lived in San Diego, Bellingham, WA, Philadelphia, and Atlanta... I liked them all except Atlanta. ALL of them were cheaper than San Diego. But only San Diego has the beaches and year round weather.

You can be active in the midwest and south, I think the fatness is more about culture regarding eating and food choice. Yes, you have the beautiful weather and beaches for year round activity in San Diego, but I don't think you have the worshipping of high fat foods like you have in other regions. Also, I think there are cultural attitudes about physical appearance - like being able to look good in a bikini on the beach.

New hot topic for middle-income adults in CA?

Hot Topics:

RECESSION. HOW TO AVOID GETTING LAID OFF. THE DECLINE OF AMERICA (as nation and as a culture). THE RISE OF CHINA.

This economy has people really scared.

Looking good in a bikini is nice, but I'm more concerned with being well enough to enjoy a long, stress-free life well into my golden years. When you're in your 30's, 40's, 50's it's easy to say health is all about appearance... Later on when the poor-diet-and-exercise-induced illnesses set in, you may find that keeping in good health pays off in more ways than just appearance...

Just before my dad died I asked him if he wanted to leave me with any advice he had learned in his many years (he lived until 91 and was almost 60 when I was born). He was a doctor-- a pathologist. He said: take care of your teeth, and avoid fat. His whole career was spent diagnosing illnesses, the majority of which he believe could be traced to the levels of fat in your body. He learned to skateboard at age 80, the same year I set him up on the internet.

I can't discredit the words of my dad on his death bed and have used his advice since! San Diego is an easy place to do it. Surf all year, snowboard in the winter, volleyball all year, scuba, hiking, swimming, you name it. We have many sports clubs, fitness centers, and plain old nature trails for the outdoorsy types.

Two years ago, a dear friend of mine was OBSESSED about moving back to upstate NY, where she grew up and her family still lives.

She and her CA-born-and-bred husband (who had never experienced "winter") felt that it would be best for their future children to move "back home."

Their first baby was born a few months ago and all they talk about is moving back to SD. The need to be with her family seems to have, well, disappeared.

Apart from holidays, she hadnt spent lots of time with her family in over a decade. Once she was back, she was shocked that everyone wanted/expected her to be the Cindy they remembered - not the Cindy who had lived in San Diego for 10 years.

Sigh. I guess the moral to the story is, people move to CA from other places. They live here for awhile. They bitch about the traffic, the cost, the people, housing, etc. Then, they pack up and move and, within a short time, all they can think about is moving back to CA.

Unless you are a highly paid consultant, WHAT would one do in WY for work? I can only think of working as a ski instructor, bartender, waitron or a kitschy shop owner.

I was refering to why you might see more thin people in southern CA than in other regions in the country. I agree that looking good in a bikini isn't nearly as important as maintaining your health for later in life. But I think in general, in southern CA, the reason you see more thin people is more about culture than staying healthy. Fortunately SD has wonderful opportunitites for a wide range of physical activity.

Man, I'm glad I'm still young and childless enough that at parties we mostly talk about dating, relationships, movies, books and politics rather than real estate! :)
I'm from Minnesota originally, and I'd move back in a heartbeat if the weather wasn't so gosh darn cold. There's also a lot more biotech out here than in the midwest. The non-CA biotech hotspots (Boston and Seattle for two) are pretty similar in terms of cost of living, but with worse weather. North Carolina is the hot, still fairly cheap area. I know one person who moved there from here, but he has family roots in that region of the country.
Thinking about leaving is one of those things that a lot of people talk about, and a few actually pull the trigger on. Most people need a compelling job offer in another city to actually go through a move, especially if they're rooted by family.

Individuals have different priorities and values, of course, and this is dictating their choice of ideal city or state to live in, as revealed in this thread. If you already live in San Diego, that choice probably reflects your preferences.
I suggest that an area's economic health, demographic trends, and quality of life factors largely drive real estate prices, and that San Diego has fallen considerably. Remember, a few years ago Forbes ranked San Diego as the best city in the country for, I believe, business start-ups and quality of life for college graduates. Now we are not even in the top ten.
Montana and Wyoming are way different from San Diego, and I suspect their citizens are just as disdainful of our quality of life characteristics as some of us are of theirs. Different strokes, etc.
Back to data: CA has the 3rd highest unemployment rate in the nation, and San Diego's is rising rapidly of late, and it is not just real estate related. Wyoming's is 2.6%, lowest in the nation. Montana's is 3.8%. Both are energy and agriculture-rich, so their economic future is assured.
Both states have growing populations--the famous U-Haul price ratio reflects this.
Most worrisome for CA is the demographic trends, as we lose middle-class families and high-earning taxpayers to other states, and import low-earning, government-dependent citizens and non-citizens, supplemented by the high birth rate of our existing poor people.
Yes, San Diego will always have its weather and other attractions. But some long-run demographic and economic trends have really turned against us. Real estate prices and rents in the future will reflect this.

EconProf, have you actually been to Mt? I have twice, a good friend of mine moved there from here as his wife is an AF officer.

Montana does NOT have better schools or a better economy. Its highly dependent on mining, oil, gas and the military, as is Wyoming. The few "nice" places to live are exceedingly expensive (Whitefish). The jobs pay nowhere near what they do here; as an example my fellow paragdlider pilot moved to SD after college at U of M. He said that, "UCSD was willing to pay me more to be a grad student than the highest paying job I could get in MT."

Oh and as to the real differences, if you are a contractor, try getting labor to show up on time regularly sober. Now thats a cultural difference. All the people who are dependable moved to SoCal, Seattle and San Fran.

As others have said, everywhere has its problems, but I'd take my long run chances here in a heartbeat over MT and WY even excluding the weather.

duplicate

Barnaby: Yes, been to MT, Missoula specifically, a great university town, cosmpolitan, award winning downtown, fabulous, inexpensive homes, well-educated and hard-working citizenry. Of course, you could pick a mining town, like Butte, and get another result. San Diego has, on average, a miserable school system. Of course, there are some way above average schools, like in Poway, Scripps, wealthy enclaves here and there. But on average, ours lag in national ratings and the trend is downward. The economically improving states, like Montana, are probably already ahead of us, on average. Piggs: lets see some national ratings to settle this.
As to construction work force, my experience tells me otherwise. I've met crew chiefs who had the following preferences: First, workers from the midwest and south. Second choice: Mexican. Third choice: native-born Californians. Mountain state workers did not enter the discussion, but maybe they are all gainfully employed in their home state. OK, that should generate some opinions!
But my main point is that, investing, we ought to look at long term demographic and economic trends, and taxation levels. They largely explain why, for example, Utah and Idaho are doing relatively well, and Michigan and Ohio are doing so poorly. The trends for CA are not good.

Interesting stuff. Thanks for the well-reasoned response. I've somehow missed the unemployment rate figures.

I'm fine with people leaving CA, just don't go to MT...

montana

Ren,

Have you ever looked into Portland. From what I have seen its kind of like San Diego but more livable if you know what I mean.