San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

If this prediction goes correct then prepare for further next Spring i.e 2011 a drastic severe housing turmoil again- just what we did in the past years 2002-2003 (keeping low interest rates and allow housing only a balloon to pop-up). Just try to grow in all fields uniquiely instead of housing only and that is also up to 30%. If you allow housing just 6-9% then I would say nothing is going to be happened again.

You need our opinion as to the accuracy of that prediction?

I've got a used car that I predict will appreciate 30% in value by next year. Wanna buy it?

While I enjoy Yosemite and the Sequoias, I can't imagine people flocking to CA's central valley. Never once have I heard someone say, "I can't wait to go to Bakersfield."

Has the bubble popped that drastically out there that it can only go up now? I heard Stockton and some towns south of there got hit hard the last couple years. Did they flush all the garbage out of the system already? If not, I don't see how it will see a 30% increase. That realtor is on crack.

On a side note, SDrealtor was dead on with the robust spring selling season. Seems like all the houses I've been following in Murrieta/Temecula are being gobbled up pretty quick. Not sure about the SD area, but it does look like inventory of good homes that show well is low, and people are turning out to buy them.

If Mr. Mortgage is right, we should see more inventory by September or so, and with it, a decrease in house prices. We shall see...

I've loosely followed his stats and comments about the housing market for a few years. I'd take his predictions at strictly entertainment value

"He was not enthusiastic about the administration's plan to modify troubled mortgages. Maaske is in favor of lenders modifying mortgages on their own, but not government mandating a one-size-fits-all approach. Many families can't qualify, he said, and 67% of those who have received workouts wind up defaulting on the new loan anyway."

In one breath he says that the market is going to the moon again. In another he states that people can't get workouts and are defaulting on them en masse if they do manage to get one.

Unemployment in Tulare County stood at 17.7% and climbing in March. Homes in many areas are still overpriced relative to incomes. There are still plenty of foreclosures being held off the market there and even more on the way. I don't see how he can claim that:

"Meanwhile, foreclosures will remain high, but will likely be parceled out over two years without creating a huge wave that will swamp the marketplace."

I'll agree with him that there are multiple bid situations and that incentives and tax credits are getting people out to buy, for now.

Im from Visalia.

If a "professional" from that area said that the economy is hurting I would double check.

Such is the quality of service in that area.

Do you know Bruce Norris? He is considered is one of the best real estate market experts in California. He was just interviewed by For News

http://www.realwealthinvestor.com/real-e...

He predicts banks in CA will have to release some of the "shadow inventory" on the market, which would drive the house prices down (watch part 1 and 2 of another inverview with him at

http://www.realwealthinvestor.com/market...

lol 30%! hahah, no. :|

2 to 5% max.

You actually have to qualify to get a loan now. Prices are going back to normal pre-bubble levels.

Ok I watched most of the Norris stuff, I'm still confused a little, there are some contradictions. I did a little research on the guy and he gets points for being interviewed in 2006 by the oc register and his predictions were fairly accurate, however he loses some credibility because he sells a program and training that has an infomercial feel to it. Plus, he wasn't the only one that thought we were heading for a crash, but to his credit, he was fairly vocal, fairly early.

But I watch the interviews and he advised his daughter to buy in Moreno Valley right now, he says that the prices are below cost and below rent, that makes sense to me. Then he talks of the shadow inventory and the big wave coming onto the market starting now and ending in about 18 months and that graduates of his course have used his methods to buy condos for 30k that rent for $1100, but then he says he bought homes in S.D. in December knowing he could flip them now in the low inventory frenzy and that he will buy and hold in the next wave, not flip. That kinda makes sense too, well, except for the part about the 30k condos if you take his training.

My trouble is he has placed both bets, unless he wants to clarify about micro markets, he never did that, he mentioned various markets and scenarios but then is on the first interview saying there has never been a better time, 4.5%, cheaper than rent, buy, buy, buy! But in the second interview he says the market will be flooded very soon so wait, wait, wait! The interviews were in the same week. If he was a poster on this site he'd be crucified for playing both sides, if he thinks one town is a buy and another is a wait, then he needs to be more clear. Or is he saying everything and the consumer (those who pay for his advice/training) just hear the part they want to hear. I don't have the answer, he seems a lot more in tune than other "get rich quick" guys peddling strategies, but I have these nagging questions, perhaps he doesn't answer them all on purpose so you pay to hear the rest, and that is where you lose me. There are three choices of characters to play in this game, he can be the guy who has all the answers and makes the right plays or you get to be the sage and dispense free advice, or you can be the guy who makes his real money from selling the info without the risk. You can't be a combination of any of them, you can't be the seller of info while being the guy who plays the game, because the real player doesn't want the competition, if he tells everyone the secret, then it's no longer a secret.

If that used car is a clunker currently worth less than $1000, it WILL increase in value by at least 30% over the next 6 months if the cash for clunkers passes.

He's right.
Everybody wants to live in Visalia.

I'm a follower of Bruce Norris because I think he is a really smart guy. Just look at the niche that he carved out for himself: being a hard money lender that carries no inventory and will make money if the deal that he sponsors makes money statistically.
But if anyone wants to be a good student, he needs to be critical of his teacher. Some of what he says are either marketing material or he might be full of himself. Like $30K for $1100 rent condo, I don't doubt it is true, but he is withhelding information that is critical to analyze the return. At $30K, the rehab costs are going to have a meaningful impact on the price tag, how big is that? And for the $1100 rent, how much is condo fees etc? How much is the vacancy rate in those area? So that's why I call it markeing material because he knows that he is not giving the full picture but he deliberately hides it to generate interests (for his training, and subsequently become a borrower of his hard money lending business).
One thing that I am not sure if he is just marketing or delusional is the prediction of market bottom 18 months from now. I don' think anyone could know for sure when the market bottom really is given all the dynamic forces (especially from the government) in play. I think Warren Buffett is much more honest in this regard. When he wrote the article of "Buy America" last year, he clearly stated that he doesn't have the faintest idea where the bottom will be and what the price would be. He just feels that from the valuation point of view, it is a good time to buy. Anyone thinks he can predict the future down to the exact time-frame or the exact price is delusional. The world doesn't work that way. It's all random statistical events, that are only explainable when you look backward.

I've followed Norris for about 12 years and he's been fairly accurate. But not perfect. He called the bottom in 1996, but said we'd top in 2005. Close enough, I think. But saying to "buy and hold" and that prices will drop, in the same week sounds contradictory to me as well. He claims that he keeps some of the "winner" properties and flips that rest. I've analyzed his work very closely and he's no genius, but I think he's honest.

I'll chime in on Norris too. Like others have said, he is not perfect. He makes some of his living from selling his RE services and advice, so expect some marketing from him. But I listened carefully to a lot of his radio shows, and most of it is very good information packaged by a clearly intelligent person, with little of the buy-now-or-be-priced-out-forever twaddle that was common amongst people who made a living out of RE.