San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Stick around long enough and you'll be able to lock up the best of both sides of your choice. C'mon man, 6 more months; it's not that far away.

Personally, most views don't do anything for me, leastwise, not enough to pay a lot for one. I'm in the business at looking at other people's views and after the first 500 or so they really just don't register. I'd go for the neighborhood and having ready access to the services I typically use. I like being relatively close to freeway access. I hate having to spend 15 or 20 minutes on surface streets prior to even getting on the freeway.

Neighborhood > house > price > view

1. neighborhood & schools (kinda joined at hip)
2. work proximity

If 1 & 2 are ok, then -

3. price & other fees (hoa, taxes - again, hard to break out for me)
4. location (off busy street - done it both ways & I can't adjust to noise)

Kinda seems how factors played out for me here & have never regretted my decision.

Other factors include:

5. one story home
6. larger lot size

From eyeballing homes on Redfin, I like Tioga home best b/c of nobody directly across street & not on a corner.

Thanks Bugs, I needed a slap or something to make me finish the marathon, even waiting six months which I probably will and things going down say 50k they will for both and the question remains, do you get all you want or all you need and keep the change, I can have either now, the heavy lifting is over. Freeways and services are the same all the linked ones are within 1 mile of each other, here are two more in the 250 range, different concessions, 2 car garage, smaller but more efficient. Whn they are 200 and 250, I'll still have to decide. I think i only want a view because I've never had one. I've had pools, big lots and a few other things and I don't want those anymore, I rent with a view now and still kinda dig it, but it's still the honeymoon phase with that feature.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45646-...

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33142-...

I love my canyon view - not because of the view, but because there isn't neighbor there. I have 1 neighbor to the left, 1 to the right, and nothing for 300 feet to the rear.

I guess a golf-course view is sort of like this, though I'd rather be backed up to nature than a golf course.

I'd go smaller house, bigger lot. I'd rather have more outdoor space to maintain than indoor space to clean.

Depends on if you mean "status" or "pleasant" when you talk about the neighborhood. If one is gang-ridden or could turn bad as housing drops but the other is nice, then yeah, the 'hood matters. But if the neighbors are good people and kids play in the street and the school district is fine in both neighborhoods, then I don't really think the 'hood matters much.

Neighborhood is important and that changes. When I had kids my preferences changed. I must say I have been happy living in a variety of neighborhoods in San Diego. There are only a few I would avoid.
The benefit of a view for me is that it usually comes with a relative sense of privacy. If you are big into spending time in the yard socializing or doing hobbies and don't like feeling like you are in a fishbowl while doing it, you might like the space around that could coincidentally provide for a view. I like views and privacy for when entertaining or when I am just tending to some gardening alone.Now that I have big yard I enjoy that my place is a little like a retreat for stay-over guests.
My priority though is always a suitable economic situation. I would not stretch for anything. I have always bought so that lots of income isn't needed just for shelter, which is how I tend to view the house.

rbeast, good points, I'm with you on backing up to busy road.

sduude, I agree, canyon, golf, whatever, just comparing view vs somebody else's window, is it a big priority and for those with it, has the novelty worn off after a few years. With regards to neighborhood and schools in my specfic decision, they are all walking distance from each other, same schools, seems to be same folks, that's a crapshoot anyway, but when I said not as nice of a neighborhood, people are the same but a neighborhood with lower fees or older homes seem to have more variance in upkeep, purely from a curbside point of view.

On view of nature, I found out a an interesting thing in my rental, my view is of nature and a creek/trees, nobody for 1/4 mile. I get to listen to a chorus of frogs, almost have to close the window to talk on the phone. One thing I didn't realize was that bugs like water and frogs like bugs. I never walk into the backyard unless all interior lights are off otherwise the house fills with flyers in seconds, didn't see that coming in the dead of winter when I picked it. Haven't sat back there at night for a month. Live and learn. june bug season is upon us, it reminds me of a scene from indiana jones. It has prompted me to come up with a new invention idea, lacing cigars with insect repellent. Not sure if that would be harmful to smoke insect repellent or if it can be made tasteless but it's not like they aren't bad for you already, so what the hell.

Rustico, more good info, seems like I'm not crazy to value no neighbors behind, good reasoning, never thought of it that way but it is a bit of a retreat sans bugs.

Wait 6 months and get your dream deal. Hows that for advice. (why the hell are you buying at the end of spring? No inventory that is worth it and to much hope still in the air.)

Personally, Id go for a view, but I dont really like people traping right past my backyard when I am back there. You dont sound like a garden/nature person (small lot????) so Id stay away from creeks or canyon bottoms, or anything such. Go views from up high.
Maybe ask yourself what helps the resale. If you ever got old and grey and decided to give up the house thing, who is gonna buy your house and will they pay for the admenities. I see houses all the time that they paved the back yard, nothing green anywhere. I would HATE it there and would either not buy, or pay condsiderably less to compensate for all the concrete removal. Think about what your "improvements" will actually get you back.

DW, cmon, i do this every few months when I get tempted by a sultry siren like Ms. Tioga, I know better but she's the one and I need my buddies to talk me out of it so I don't end up in line at health services tomorrow, it worked for me twenty years ago at fraternity house and it's gonna work now. I had been stalking that house through the foreclosure process, bought a few drinks for someone in the know with regards to it and said three months ago that if it lists below 325k, game over. Not a thread of carpet on the ground floor, all travertine, not fouled up, 3 car, no neighbor on one side and none behind, she had me at notice of default. So she finally shows up to the dance, below my guesstimate price and she doesn't seem to shine any longer vs the competition. they are pouring in, spring has sprung, the bounce seems over. 34 listings in my zip in 48 hours, but 65 NOT's in this 7 day period, so that means plenty more in line, I'm weak but I just need a little more strength. Have you ever had a jogging partner and at 3 miles you say you are done, but they convince you to run to the next telephone pole and when you get there, they say lets go to one more, after another mile and seven telephone poles you tell them you are going to knock them out if we dont stop at the next one, that you arent falling for the "just a little bit more" trick. but you do, and you get to five miles and when you are done you are thankful and next time you want to run again with that same friend but you know he's gonna pull that crap again, well, thats you guys. Lets go jogging.

I spent many a night trying to convince brothers in the house to forgo the "vixin" in size 26 pants, so I kinda figured it would be a cake walk to slap one more out it.
When I looked up your pretty girl, I have to admit the attraction. You definitatly are not playing with the paper bag crowd, so it isnt as easy as I thought it would be.

But I have to ask if it is really love, or just the sickness of waiting for too long? I mean, is that really the house? 65 more in a week means the line to get into the party is only getting longer, and NONE of the players I knew were attched at the lips with ANYONE till the line to get in started to get short and alittle too much like the deli meats isle.(girls ALWAYS get in first, and the pretty ones are usually the last in the door) Are you a player or what? Comeon man, look at what is waiting outside, just excited as hell about getting a drink and maybe a dance.

besides, you told us once you only post the maybe and so-so's. You know that cutie from the coffee house is coming, she promised you in Option Arm ink, dont disappoint her.

Neighborhood > price > view > house

I believe that Temecula has another 20-25%+ to drop.....................and it will do so over the next 24 months. Probably half of that drop will occur within the next 6-12 months. Nobody knows better than you what your plan should be. One thing's for sure: there won't be any shortage of inventory if you decide to wait for somewhere close to the bottom.

Personally, the neighborhood is #1 priority for me. That being said, I would never buy a home that backs up to or is very close to a busy road. Too noisy and a bad selling point if you ever want to sell. Pools are a pain in the butt...............too much work and fuss for the little bit that they get used after the kids grew up.

Good luck with your decision.

I agree that priorities change w/ kids. Neighborhood used to be #3, but now it's grown to #1. And for me, school district is probably the biggest component of neighborhood.

After that is house. Not so much sqft but layout for our needs, especially since I work out of the house and need a "quiet place" to avoid unnecessary bloodshed when the kids are home.

Third would be price, and then view.

Probably overly practical, but hey, maybe once the kids are grown "view" will get to move up!

And since I'm waiting and watching the market from the other coast, I'm hoping that delayed gratification in this market will be rewarded!

We have two different types of properties to find. We will definitely be buying a rental or two in Temecula, but we may also be getting something for ourselves for 3-4 years until it becomes practical to buy in Carlsbad, where we want to end up.

For a rental the most important consideration is age (for low maintenance), then neighborhood (for higher rent). I wouldn't look at anything built before 2000. 4-bdrm, no view, small lot, no pool, 1800-2400 sq ft.

For the residence (and eventual rental), the neighborhood is most important, followed by view and then age. Ideally it would be on a golf course, 2200-3000 sq ft, 3-car garage.

I don't think you'll need to choose between the dream and the deal. Wait 4-6 months, and I'm guessing you'll be able to get the dream for $250-280k. The "deal" you linked to is still overpriced, in my opinion.

Man. That's a hard question. Seems like they're all what one would consider. The pecking order. I guess it would be neighborhood. I'd rather rent in an area I want to be in than own somewhere I don't want to live.

Next would be price. If I can't afford it comfortably, I won't get it.

House and view are tied, I think. Maybe view would be slightly more. My house in CV had no one behind it, but not much of a view. (empty lot at the time that's now a church) House is always something you can fix up and modify.

I think the lot would matter more to me, the size, the potential, the zoning (if multi)

On our first house it was the house, then the price, then location, then view. Three houses later to me the house is the least important of the four factors ...

#1 Neighborhood
#1.b. precise location within the neighborhood (e.g. house with wider lot, low-traffic street, etc)

#2. Price

#3. View (e.g. neighbors junk-yard versus area/canyon/water), as well as how much sky you can see. Don't like the "closed-in" feeling.

#4. The structure.

#1 and #3 I cannot change. #2 is driven by #1 and other factors, but I cannot really change I can only try to time the cycle or negotiate. #4, the house itself is the tiebreaker. I go for the thing that can be changed to how I want it for the least amount of total cost (purchase price plus upgrades/remodeling)

TG - regarding the view. For me, it is all about space and a little bit of privacy. Plus - it is space I don't have to pay for. i.e. I don't own the canyon behind me but I benefit from the open feel of the space.

The thing is, others are willing to pay for that golf-course view so the price goes up. Maybe look for something that offers the benefits of space and privacy that aren't priced at a premium the way a golf-course view is priced. Maybe a house with a steep hillside sloping down to the rear with someone else's house down below. This gives you the wide-open space without the bugs, cost or golfers.

We have minimal issues with bugs in Clairemont, even in the summer.

Certainly there are some natural bug-repelling herbs that could be used for those cigars.

I'm with asianautica. We live in a relatively small house on a hill in a neighborhood that is somewhere between middle class and upper middle class. We love the view -- stretches all the way across the city to the ocean (which, admittedly, we can only see on a very, very clear Santa Ana day with binoculars!). But the twinkling night lights are great and the view is unobstructable...unless someone gets a permit to build a house in the middle of the street that leads to our house.

It is interesting, as others have pointed out, how your priorities change over the years...especially in regard to neighborhood preference. Our neighborhood has virtually no young kids. Everyone is older with grown, out-of-the-house children (in our situation, our kid is away at college most of the year). Our first house was in a neighborhood with plenty of kids, who played in the street and in the many backyards. We wanted that then, but not now.

Disadvantage of our present house: People higher on the hill can look right into our relatively small backyard, so I don't spend much time out there. When we are BBQing, I always feel self-conscious about what we're talking about because I know some neighbors can hear us and there is the usual number of nosy neighbors. Paranoia strikes deep!

I think it depends on what would you spend the difference on. If your passion is, say, cars and the cheaper house will let you lease that M6 you were drooling about, that's one thing. If the only difference will be that your monthly savings will increase from $1500 to $1900, I'd stick with the nicer house.

Once in my life I rented the "deal" home, because I thought I'd only need it for 6-7 months. The worst mistake ever, I was really unhappy there.

Sandi, good point and probably something I won't be able to shake out of my head while shopping, so thank you. I have gotten caught up in the game, trying to win the game and not looking at the big picture.

Dear TG,

This will be the chance of a lifetime to buy at the best deal possible. Go for the nicest house you can reasonably afford. You may be living there for a long time, you don't want to get tired of it soon.

1) Price always has to be first. If it has a beautiful view but you can't afford it ...well you can't buy it.
2) House has to come in second. Since houses are more plentiful that either houses with views or neighborhoods, there's more choice, and it's the space within your house that you occupy most of the time, not the neighborhood. However, if you have kids you may decide neighborhood is more important. Also, you don't want a mansion on skid row, but that usually doesn't happen.
3) I would then go for view, since neighborhood in the sense of community is a misnomer in California, at least to me.
4) So neighborhood loses out.

In an ideal world where money is no object, these would not be mutually exclusive.

Sandi makes sense regarding price - what is the opportunity cost?

Will you be burning cash that would sit unused in your bank account? Do you have a hobby that could use that cash which would improve your life more than a nicer home would.

Will buying the more expensive place make your time at home better, or will it be so nice that you will want to spend more time at home, or will it force you to spend time at home cuz you don't have the money to do other things ?