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Submitted by lostcat92120 on December 16, 2008 - 9:21am
Thinking back to early 2000, right after the dot com bubble burst, the market and economy started to slow. I am still a strong believer that if Greenspan didn't lower rates to historical lows to jump start the economy back then, we would be out of the recession that was starting back then by now. Instead of ending up in recovery in 2008, we're just starting to feel a two or three tier collapse of our economy. My feeling is that we have now just reached where we were heading back in 2000, just prior to Greenspan's big move. The housing problem is just overshadowing the real problem, and i didn't get this off of 60-minutes. Anyone want to give a thought on where our economy was actually headed in 1999-2000 prior to the lowering of interest rates and the housing piggy banks? My gut tells me (and I am no economist), we're headed to the same point that we never realized back in 2000. So we have a long way to go. Wherever that is. The basic fundamentals of our economy are still the same = export very little, import everything. The other major wave of problems are coming too. Obama is going to try to infuse the economy with infrastructure improvements. Problem is, our infrastructure system is failed. Our hwy models are failed. IN 30 years it's going to cost trillions upon trillions to maintain our hwy system. That's after we spend billions upon billions bailing out our auto industry. We need to start investing in rail and mass transit and smart landuse. The next time you drive up to Carmel Valley via the 805 or the 5, take some time to think about the size of the foot print of the 805/5 merge. The amount of land that the hwy takes up is unbelievable and to maintain that amount of concrete and infrastructure is going to cost us billions in the coming years. Billions, this country won’t have and tax payers won’t want to pay. I say let it fail now, don't bail out those that don't want to pay taxes. America is no longer the center of the world. The center of the world is all over the place now. The financial capital of the world is no longer New York, it's Singapore and Hong Kong. The Mid-West is not longer the center of the agricultural world any more, it's South America, Central America and parts of South East Asia. America is not longer the epicenter of technology, China, Germany and Japan are. And America is not longer the center of energy, the Middle East, Russia and northern South America is. Additionally, American's are becoming more and more apathetic so our mental capital is dying too. I hate to be a bear, but our economy can’t run on speculation forever. There has to be substance. Right now, all we have is Brittney Spears.
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Lostcat: Speaking of good German words, here's another one: Kaput.
lol
America is no longer the center of the world. The center of the world is all over the place now. The financial capital of the world is no longer New York, it's Singapore and Hong Kong. The Mid-West is not longer the center of the agricultural world any more, it's South America, Central America and parts of South East Asia. America is not longer the epicenter of technology, China, Germany and Japan are. And America is not longer the center of energy, the Middle East, Russia and northern South America is. Additionally, American's are becoming more and more apathetic so our mental capital is dying too.
I hate to be a bear, but our economy can’t run on speculation forever. There has to be substance. Right now, all we have is Brittney Spears.
Please excuse me while I disagree with you alittle here. I agree that the global hegomony American has had in nearly all aspects of global trade/economy is over. We have taken a very explicit direction that our goal was global peace by global development. We had the marshal plan in Europe, we sent our oil services technology to the middle east and South America and such to secure more oil, and some profits for ourselves. We taught Japan and China how to build stuff well and opened up our markets to them and still allow them to manipulate their currencies to support their export economies. We have willingly and deliberalty given up our place as single world leader for a smaller, but more stable role as head chief of many stronger nations.
That isnt to say we dont do anything here. We produce millions of barrels of oil a year, and huge amounts of natural gas, coal and other minerals/materials. The midwest still produces HUGE amounts of food stuffs and we export tons of it. Asia has been trying to block our exports of rice for years to protect their farmers, cause we have boatloads to sell. GM/Ford Europe and Asia branches are very profitable and expanding. We are the leader in numerous different industries including Aerospace, military tech, pharmaseuticals, internet/computers, farming, and (yes even now) banking.
We still produce alot of stuff the world wants and needs. We just dont dominate every market like we use to. Our universities are the best in the world, and we are better than ANYONE at taking research and bringing it to the market place. I am bearish, but not dooms-dayist. We need alot of changes, deep painful changes that are caused by our willful change in global power. We will have to start building stuff or designing stuff, not just selling each other stuff. We will not be able to support the worlds desire to export everything and inport nothing to quell the other countries growing and restless populations. But we are not dead weight, nor Rome cerca 400 a.d.
I think the post that kicked off this thread is simply brilliant.
As for the reply post by DWCAP, I say this: "It is fine and dandy that you are a patriot. We get it. However, if your arguments and money blindy follow your patriotism in believing in the US economy, then I think you'll lose your money and your arguments."
stocktrader,
If the best you have is thin threats that ill loose money buying good companies regardless of their nationality then I will feel safe in my trading strategies. Nowhere in my post did I ever get all nationalistic, and I have no real idea why you think that. I have plenty of money in overseas stocks, and continue to invest in them. I have plenty of money in American compnaies too, and continue to invest in them too. I like good companies no matter what their nationality and am fully willing to admit, to the contrast of some here, that there are still good companies in the USA. Just because we are not the only game in town doesnt mean that we have no game left if you get my drift.
I started the post for this reason. I am trying to be open and learn something. DWCAP, you make a lot of very good points, but I also think times are changing. In traveling over seas a lot, I've noticed a drastic change. We're not the center anymore and the things we are good at, as you mentioned, we're slowly losing. China's is starting to develop amazing Military technologies, and so is Russia, for example. Our schools are not the best, but they are still really good.
Our drug programs are designed to treat, not cure. Other nations are starting to develop medical industries the cure, not treat. If other countries cure, the companies that we own here that treat, will go out of business or ask for a bailout.
There are so many things fundamentally wrong with our economy and our mind set as a nation. We need to change. We need to let go of some of the things we think are "lame" like riding public transit, and start looking at them as a practical solution to some of the shortcomings this country has.
Anyhow, it's just my thought. But the one thing America is great at is changing. If we can change fast enough, we'll again lead the world and not just with bombs and BS.
I like this debate.
I would still be interested in hearing stock expand on some of his more dire predictions.
Specifically where he sees the 8% reduction in gdp come from.
A lot of ppl are disagreeing with what the FED has done or about to do to lower rate and to bailout, and we have been debating over a long time now. What if the FED did not or has not or is not do anything and what will be the consequence now?