[quote=wildta][quote=barnaby33]Do mean that Vantage point is solely, or even mostly responsible for a glut of units for sale? That doesn’t seem to be a realistic statement, because buyers there would seemingly be very different than buyers at BOSA or something more westerly.[/quote]
I concur. I live in the marina district and would never buy in the area of where vantage is located.[/quote]
I have no real opinion on Vantage Point or the area that surrounds it, but… those units are no longer for sale. Sam Zell’s company bought the whole project and they are now apartments. He paid what I thought was an outrageous $340/sq ft.; nevertheless, that’s 679 units off the for sale market and into the rental pool.
Generically, I think downtown prices are still about 20% too high (when comparing the cost of ownership versus renting) and I think that will correct over the next three years. The excess supply is slowly being absorbed and most, but not all, of the specuvesters have been wiped out and foreclosed on. But there are still a lot of short sales going on and there’s still a lot of new, never-lived-in inventory. But there will be zero newly completed units coming on the market for at least the next five years, and so long as interest rates remain low and prices don’t increase (which is unlikely) most of this inventory will get sucked up.
While I still think downtown is generically overpriced there are pockets of value here and there. I just bought a west-facing penthouse unit in a mid-quality mid-rise (built in ’05) with 18 ft. ceilings and a view of the bay and downtown for $270/sq ft. (includes renovation costs). HOA is $328/mo. and includes a decent gym (but no pool). The original buyer paid a whopping $640/sq ft. While not a “steal,” that seems pretty reasonable to me. And there’s plenty of stuff like that if you have the patience to keep at it.