San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Whatever floats your boat. 

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----- Sour grapes for everyone!

A big tipping point I've been looking for is for the home equity cash spigot to be shut off. My position is that we aren't going to see the *real* economic fallout of the bust till that happens.

So we will see what happens. But who knows, with Boom Boom running the printing presses like mad the dollar may crap out enough that foreigners start buying up blue chips and propping up the indexes.

Personally, if I was short it would be real estate and financial sectors only.

i've been getting destroyed because of the rumors surrounding the bond insurers. it's incredible how rumors have been jerking things around...

i'm keeping an eye on imb though. earnings are out on the 12th, the stock has near doubled in a week or so due to the stimulated bailout package that was announced..

I'd imagine that the indexes would be pretty much topped by today...probably just tread water and end a little positive or negative. I usually stay away from shorting financials and real estate because those etfs seem a little too volatile for my tastes.

I also wonder if gold will have a few more down days, or resume its climb after today.

I think the market remains bullish to flat until Valentine's day or so. The retail sale data release might be a cause for a reversal.

Trying to time the market is speculation, and it's a losing game.

Long term the market rises, so invest for the long term. It's really that simple.

I agree with ice9, this is the "lazy portfolio" strategy which has proven to be best time and time again. Still, I wouldn't want to start going long right now...

I am admittedly a hypocrite, as I have been playing with shorts here and there.

Regarding the comment on gold, yes I'm also nervous.

I've hung onto my ~25% of portfolio position in gold. Yes, I'm very nervous we could see a significant pullback from profit taking, possibly taking gold down $100 or more off the $930+ top. I'm hoping that does NOT happen. In the mid-term (24 months), however, I fairly confident gold will advance above $1200/ounce.

Regarding stocks, I believe the optimists are having some temporary success convincing the markets that the recession fears were overblown. I think index movement over next few weeks to few months will be difficult to predict, until data comes in (April, latest) that completely confirms the recession has started. So, my strategy is to start taking SHORT positions because no matter the fluctions of next few months, eventually Bad News will take the markets MUCH lower this year.

You know what I really wish for? I want some incredibly OPTIMISTIC (but groundless) news to completely dominate for a day, sending the markets wildly UP...and same time lowering the cost of PUT options on the indexes.

On that day, I will be buying puts, right when they are On Sale.