San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

So, what would you say....ya do here??

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I think this is the next revolution. Govt at the state and local level is gonna get down sized. There's no other way. The pensions are completely unsustainable and their current levels of employment are as well. It's got to happen.

So, what would you say...ya do here??....

It's going to take a while for Obama to shrink government to a rational size given the enormity which it grew while Bush was President and the Republicans were in control of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Hopefully Obama can inspire state and local governments to shrink also.

IT'S GOING TO BE AN OBAMA NATION, BABY! SO LONG BIG-SPENDING, WAR-MONGERING, GOVERNMENT-EXPANDING REPUBLICANS! DON'T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU WHERE GOD SPLIT YOU! YEE-HAW!

And if those same employees were to buy something from your business, would you accept their ill-gotten gains?

If so, doesn't that make you part of the problem?

Obama shrink government, that's rich.

Fidel Obama is going to be a painful 4 years. Thankfully, there's no way in hell he'll get elected a second term, if he even makes it through one....

The market may be the one that shrinks govt.
Since all govt's run on debt and debts going up...they may have no other choice. Oh, wouldnt that be so cool!! The sharp knife of the market spanking those friggin politicians and all the groups they cater to... I know, I'm dreaming. But a guy needs his dreams.

I think you will see a lot of civilianization, down sizing, right sizing, out sourcing (where possible) and ultimately regionalization where there are duplicate and over lapping responsibilities. Regional law enforcement and fire fighting would make more sense than every municipality having its own small army. The overhead costs of administration are egregious and the taxpayers are not getting the kind of service they pay for in many cases. Many agencies will not send an officer out to take a report in certain cases, but instead have the "victim" drive to the station or call in the report. Some of these cost savings make a lot of sense, but it also is a way of scaling back service to cut costs. The costs are up and the service is down.

Who are these right-wing goofs talking about fiscal responsibility?

Government grew at the biggest pace in history under Bush/Republican rule. Most of was funded with borrowing, long-term debt hanging over my generation.

Because of the GOP, we're unquestionably in worse shape now with respect to energy, foreign policy and the economy.

Obama/Biden '08

a·bom·i·na·tion /əˌbɒməˈneɪʃən/ Pronunciation Key - [uh-bom-uh-ney-shuhn] Pronunciation Key – noun

1. anything abominable; anything greatly disliked or abhorred.
2. intense aversion or loathing; detestation: He regarded lying with abomination.
3. a vile, shameful, or detestable action, condition, habit, etc.: Spitting in public is an abomination.

Didn't Clinton cut deep into the Government [Military] and Welfare.

I remember the Welfare cut because my aunt and her two children had a tough time b/c of the reduced benefits. She finally got off welfare and went to work.

take secret photos & vids.

anonymously sell footage to Fox for $200K. Fox News air the segment. Congress had a hearing. Two possible scenarios
1. everyone gets laid off, incl your wife.
2. this being the gubmint, nothing happens - life goes on.
either way, it could be great if the Obama/McCaine camp knows about this. But it's a little late in the campaign.

is she a contractor or a civil service employee?

they are cutting jobs from contractors.

Lest we not forget that the current pension for the wonderful city of San Diego GAURANTEES an 8% return for the pension money. So regardless of how the money is invested the city makes up any shortfall.

Awesome!!!

Kewp got it right.

Most govt employees are the same ones who spend almost all of their income and live paycheck to paycheck.

Guess where all that money goes? Right back into the economy -- your private business.

Directly or indirectly, we all benefit from government employment. It's unfortunate so many people can't make the connection between private and public employment.

Additionally, unions benefit those in private industry as well because their employers have to compete with union and public employers, effectively raising the wages and benefits of workers in private industry as well.

Ultimately, the unions are the only thing holding up what remains of our middle class right now. Be careful what you wish for.

CA Renter wrote: "Most govt employees are the same ones who spend almost all of their income and live paycheck to paycheck.
Guess where all that money goes? Right back into the economy -- your private business.
Directly or indirectly, we all benefit from government employment. It's unfortunate so many people can't make the connection between private and public employment."

So, let's imagine a desert island economy of 3 people. One person fishes well, and catches 3 fish per day. One person collects coconuts, and manages to pick up 3 per day. The last person catches seabirds that land on the island, and catches 3 per day.

It's easy to see that, with a little trade, they can all make a good living. Now let's say the bird-catcher negotiates an agreement with the other two to be the island's government employee, and gets 1 coconut and 1 fish per day, guaranteed, if he spends just 1/3 of the time catching birds, and continues to give 2/3 of his daily catch to the other 2.

When there was no govt, the total daily bounty of the little community was 3 fish, 3 coconuts, and 3 birds. After the reorganization that removed the incentives for some of the people to be as productive as possible, the total bounty was 3 fish, 3 coconuts, and 1 bird = Less.

Sure, the government employee is passing along 2/3 of what he produces to the non-govt emplyees, but they are all worse off for having let a system develop that fails to encourage everyone to be as economically productive as possible.

So arguments that it's OK if SOME govt employees are not being as productive as possible because they spend their money and thereby spread it to others, simply misses the point. Spending money does not provide goods and services to others. People's contribution to society should be measured by the open market value of the goods and services they provide to others, not how much they get to spend because they had political leverage to get sweet job contracts.

As long as Democrats are running things there will be more hiring not less.

This is why local pols love earmarks, federal spending: As long its other people's money its OK. These Fed Govt employess/contractors are a big boon to SD economy because SD is not paying for it. Not true for City/County employees, who are a big burden to local taxpayers. So we should fight the City/County jobs first.

Now let's say the bird-catcher negotiates an agreement with the other two to be the island's government employee, and gets 1 coconut and 1 fish per day, guaranteed, if he spends just 1/3 of the time catching birds, and continues to give 2/3 of his daily catch to the other 2.
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Totally false argument.

What evidence do you have that shows the govt employee is less efficient than the other two?

I've worked in both public and private industries.

-The standards for public employment (education and experience) are much higher than equivalent private employment.

-Oversight of public employees is standardized, more thorough, and has provisions which help minimize nepotism and favoritism, giving superior employees greater ability to move to more responsible positons. Nothing is perfect, and one can certainly take issue with some seniority clauses, but overall, it's much more likely to reward better and more efficient employees.

-Public employess are held to a much higher standard due to liability issues. Let's take a public vs. private police force. With public police, the city is liable for any wrongdoing on the part of an officer. The city has deep pockets, and is constantly aware of the liability issue. Because of this, they institute very stringent controls over their officers, and the quality of service reflects that.

In my experience, the private industries don't worry nearly as much about liability, because they figure the worst case scenario would force them into bankruptcy. Because of corporate protection, the owners/executives are rarely held responsible, so they are free to persue other ventures. There is much less quality control, IMHO.

It's a bit like how our houses are built. Back when contruction workers were unionized, you got MUCH higher quality, though labor cost more. Now, we hire non-union illegal immigrants and other "unskilled" workers, pay them less, and the quality of workmanship suffers greatly. Oddly enough, though it's cheaper to build homes today, they are more expensive than when built by journeyman craftsmen (even taking into consideration labor alone). What happened to the spread? It went to the HB companies -- in the form of bloated compensation to executives and shareholders (a little bit). IOW, the cost savings will NOT be realized by the general public, and the housing stock will deteriorate more quickly...causing more environmental pollution (through tear-downs, R&R cabinets, roofs, siding, etc.) and taking more capital out of the economy to maintain and replace those structures.

So, you get lower-paid workers, still-high prices, and greater wealth for the very few at the top (you're likely not one of them). This is what's been happening to our country. As jobs have moved off-shore, the labor costs go down for the corporations, U.S. wages are fairly flat/down, and they still expect Americans to pay prices that would be more in-line with higher wages. We've used credit to fill-in the gap between lower wages and higher prices, and this credit bubble is the end result.

Nice going...

My grandfather use to tell me about the same stories about ALCOA. When he was a young guy and couldnt make ends meet as a barber he took up a second job at ALCOA in Phoenix. He told me quickly figured out that it would only take him 20 minutes to reach his qoute on a pressing machine then he would go to the bathroom and sleep in the stalls with an egg timer. But while he was busting out his quota the other workers would give him crap for working so fast and call him a brown-noser and generally make the same comments to him that they do your wife.

My grandfather is one of the hardest working men I have ever met. Still works 40 plus hours a week at his barber shop in Mesa and has become a local icon. He's 86. Guess it went on "back when" too.

As for the comment by TheBreeze about Obama's elemintaion of waste... Dude! Are you kidding me? The ONLY reason the Dems would fire anyone is cause there simply wont be any money in the goverment coffers. I am convince that there is very little fundamental difference between Obama and Mc Cain. I was a big Mc Cain supporter at the begining but it is now clear to me that niether of them are capable for this job. I am complete depressed between, as South Park commented, a Douche and a Big Turd Sandwich.

Oink Oink,

CE

Generally speakin anyone with any prespective knows that government is essentially worthless and its employees are generally overpaid and underworked.

I have dealt with the IRS as an Accountant, FHA -Va as a builder, RTC as a staffing provider. I have yet to see any government ran organization that wasn't a joke.

The only reason you have all these employees anyway is because the democrats want them on the payroll for the votes.

John

Amen John.

The disconcerting thing with all of these youngster Obamalytes is that we're reaping the whirlwind of their historical and cultural ignorance planted by forty years of the Left/Democrats controlling education from top to bottom.

It's not what they don't know. It's what they know that just isn't true

My father is a civil servant. I think the statements being ushered are true of any organization. There are some producers and some lazy farts.

My father struggled when beaurocrats tried to prevent him from doing his job. He already had a pension so he said screw them and went over there heads. Can do that when you are 60 and have climbed to the top of the ladder in one government organization. Net result is he saved the state of New York over a billion dollars. SHould see it in the papers in January 2009.

Not everyone is lazy but the system discourages any sense of entrepreneurialism.

I am glad you can atleast achnoledge this point. I have a close friend who works in the Bay area in city gov. She is supper smart, very dedicated, and organized to a fault.

Now she works in gov and is moving through the ranks. Problem is, her bosses keep trying to promote her and the union keeps stoping it because she isnt senior enough. They once had to promote someone who wasnt qualified or ready (according to her) because she hadnt been in her current position for over 6 months and so couldnt be promoted. That is pathetic. She is a minority, a she, not really a looker in ANY way, and an introvert more than an extrovert. She isnt charming the pants off anyone with anything other than the quality of her work, but the union doesnt like it because it makes everyone else there feel bad and look bad. THat is pathetic, and not a system where the employees are sure to be the best. Most of the best ones leave because they can make so much more busting their ass for private industry. Unfornatatley for her, Gov controls what she loves to do.

(I cant wait for the "I got promoted out of the Union" party. Gonna be a knockout!)

Agreed .. i also know of some tax payer funded careers that are a joke.

I've spent my career about 50/50 public/private sector.

In terms of productivity; I'd say its a complete wash. There are workaholics and slackers everywhere.

I will say that there definitely are many more douchebags working in the private sector.

This thread has done nothing to change that opinion.

Ditto, kewp. I run a business now, started it from scratch, as entrepreneurial as you can get. Worked my ass off. Past life, I worked and directed a program on the public sector side. Worked my ass off there as well. Moral? Good and bad people everywhere you go.

Generally, I do think it's harder to let employees go on the public side. I disapprove, and believe public-sector employers ought to have more latitude to fire/replace poor performers. OTH, there are more assholes in the private sector, especially corporate, which tends to self-select a 'get ahead' kind of person, often with 'get ahead at the expense of others' values.

Oh yeah, and Hooray! for right-wing morons... Keep ranting as that's exactly what's helping to elect Obama and Dems. Republicans are pretty much pond-scum at this point. More they spew, easier it is for rest of us to see the way forward.

Back to center with Obama / Biden in '08. (Go to HELL GOP.)

Generally, I do think it's harder to let employees go on the public side. I disapprove, and believe public-sector employers ought to have more latitude to fire/replace poor performers.

I agree with this totally. The government should fire the bottom 10% performers every year as well.

Of course, that would be the whole Bush admin...

I am a civil servant, federal employee with the Navy. Almost 13 years. I have seen some horrid government employees, and some very good ones.

What has been happenning over time, is the government is "outsourcing" the government employees. They become federal contractors. Now, this is a real racket folks. The company that "wins" the bid (usually a prior high ranking military officer) gets to line his pockets with gold---yes, your taxpayer dollars.

The quality of workers that he hires are suspect, and OVERALL quality is bad. These are workers that will accept very low wage, poor benefits, and/or have been unsuccessful in the field. I can guarantee that most of them are losers, and turnover is high. Heh, we had one lady under a different contract some years ago, get fired, and a few years later, get hired by different contractor in a management position. She was really nutty and a year later finally got fired again. Without seniority, comes lack of knowledge and skill, and this is gained with government employees who do not change jobs as frequently.

Now, that is if you can fill the positions. We have some contract positions that are 10 months vacant. The contractor does some special manipulation here....requires extensive degree, license, etc, but pays very low. So, the positions stay open, and guess what? Mr. Contractor can spend 10 months NOT paying an employee and put more money in his pocket!

Please don't be fooled that getting rid of government employees means that your taxdollars will go somewhere else. All it means is that those workers are NOT on the government role, but they are being contracted, so YOU are paying.

Rule #1: You can't expect everyone to have the same level of commitment.

Corollary to Rule #1: Everyone can't expect the same compensation for different levels of work.

Rule #2: If you are really more diligent and efficient than your peers and aren't compensated for it, find another position for which you are.

Corollary to Rule #2: Don't ask for a raise you don't deserve, otherwise you'll get it so you stop your complaining, but you'll be the first to be on the chopping block.

Rule #3: In a recession, good workers find they are asked to do more work with equal pay

Corollary to Rule #3: Poor workers will be unemployed.

Corollary#2 to Rule #3: In a recession, surviving(employment) is more important than getting ahead (raise) (didn't someone post this at the business level from a Sequoia Capital slide deck?)

Be prepared to :

(1) work more to replace your coworkers that got canned

(2) ensure you are working on something with the largest impact, not something that is replaceable

(3) make sure your work is well known across the management ladders (plural, because you don't know if one ladder or the other will survive).

(4) don't f*** up what you promised to deliver.

(5) don't let someone steal credit for the work you created (because it could get vicious)

Rule #4: respect your youthful colleagues (fresh grads). These folks, most likely will be your future bosses.