San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

"In order to prevent myself from catching the falling knife and buying I have decided to make up things to distract myself, it's working."

LOL

That's a pretty sweet idea. I think I'll start tracking prices for condos with 2 car attached garages since that is my ideal for a first home.

Yeah what a fun way to kill time! I'll start tracking the things some realtors seem to think is important, like:

"New front door" (WOW!)
http://sandiego.craigslist.org/rfs/38191...

Wow that new front door really distracts me from the 14 utility lines strung from the pole to the roof, you can hardly tell.

Can't wait until somebody comes up and says "I want a three car garage and a brown lawn."

I am waiting to see if home depot names a new paint color "repo brown."

How about this idea? We could track listings that are being manipulated up and down by 100 bucks to keep the "reduced" label. Here is one example. I have seen one or two others today. Is this what passes for being a proactive agent these days?

http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/h...

Or we could track prices that have been INCREASED and actually appear to be serious. Maybe this seller will get the higher price:

http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/h...

Finally we could make a list of all listings that DON'T claim to be a "steal" or waaaaaay below "market value" or have extremely "motivated" sellers making a plea to save them from foreclosure.

By the way, I'm getting tired of hearing about the supposed "market" value of all these homes. For all you delusional sellers out there:

(sarcasm on)
Go ahead and dream about whatever market value you want. Just sell your house and THEN tell me what the market was. You will get your price .......some decade. That's what makes RE such a can't miss long term investment. You can always count on inflation to bail you out in the long run.

P.S. If your house has been on the market around 180 days you might want to look up the definition of aggressive.
(sarcasm off)
(end rant)

Here in Portland, Oregon, I have made it a habit to carefully watch out for "Tyvek Homes" (Homes half built where builder ran out of money, covered in waterproof paper). In fact, I think quantity of Tyvek paper sold may even be a good indicator of builder pain!

Update, there are now 11 with three car garages but one is a tandem 3rd car and i'm not sure if I am going to include those because I hate them.

Gary, nice rant, I love the plattitudes on the MLS. Motivated seller, priced below comps, etc. and then you see what a lie it is. Here's and example from a local townhouse development.

Prop A claims to be the lowest price in the complex, it's the smallest model and the ask is 318k for a short sale and claims the price reflest the need for new carpet.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/li...

Further investigation reveals three other untis at 299k, the model match is nicer and the other two are larger. Why claim to have the lowest price when you don't, do they think the sellers agents won't check the one accross the street. Sure one could argue that the others came on the market after the listing agent wrote the narrative but I remember when it came on the market and there were still others priced lower. Even so, leaving that in the ad seems counterproductive, it doccuments a minimum 6% reduction during it's time on the market, where's my checkbook I better buy it before it loses another 6% next month.

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/li...

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/li...

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/li...

Chasing the market down much?

How about your favorite listings of high DOM, multiple price reductions? Check out these sellers. I'll bet they would have got their current asking price a year ago.

8866 LAMAR ST #4, Spring Valley, CA 91977**
MLS #: 066058699
387 days and counting....

Purchased: 07/09/2003 $240,000

http://www.listingssandiego.com/search/h...

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logg...

In case you don't have a free ziprealty account:

Original List Price: $390,000
Price Reduced: 07/29/06 -- $360,000 to $350,000
Price Reduced: 09/01/06 -- $350,000 to $345,000
Price Increased: 09/27/06 -- $345,000 to $365,000
Price Reduced: 01/21/07 -- $365,000 to $280,000
Price Reduced: 04/06/07 -- $360,000 to $332,000
Price Reduced: 06/08/07 -- $332,000 to $330,000
Price Reduced: 06/17/07 -- $330,000 to $300,000
Price Reduced: 06/28/07 -- $300,000 to $280,000
Price Reduced: 07/21/07 -- $280,000 to $275,000

Gary and temeculaguy, thanks for those. Really hits the spot... as satisfying as a nice cold beer on a hot day.

Patient renter in OC

It's been two weeks and we are up to 13 with the new low price leader at 365k

Twelve days later, now it is 16 resale homes under 400k with three car garages and a new low price leader at 355k

Today's update, 21 homes under 400k in 92592 with a three car garage. 4 of them for 350k

I am not sure why I continue to update this, stop me if you get bored.

Today's update 26 , new low price leader 329k

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1_3_1/li...

I think it's interesting, I just wish the prices would start reflecting something like that down in SD

Keep it up....

Do you think some of these areas will end up with rows of boarded up homes because nobody will buy them?

TG - Please keep this updated. I am interested in seeing 3 car garage homes transition to below 300K. I believe that will indicate an approaching "stationary point" { bottom of the curve}

O.K. I'll stick with it, actually bsharma there are 46 total in Temecula and 6 under 329k, 2 under 300k if I run the whole city. My little study is only of one of Temecula's zip codes, 92592 which is the south side and has been the stickiest with prices in the region as far as tract homes go. The bottom six are all on the North side but you can get a 3 car at or under 300k there right now. Still I don't think the bottom of the curve has been reached just yet, however if a 3 car on the south side begins to average below 300k, then north teme and murrieta will find 250k and french valley will be at 200k, it seems hard to fathom numbers like that.

Most of these are not mcmansions, 1700-2500 sq ft average homes but they all have a 3-car.

Deal of the day is nice redhawk pool repo in a nice area for 375k.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Still on a blistering pace for those of you scoring at home.

Today's update, 39 homes with a three car garage in the mls for 92592 under 400k. 13 are under 360k and the new low price leader is 320k.

Citywide there are 66 with 279k as the citywide low price leader.

No sign of slowing!!! 55 homes in 92592 with 3 car garages for under 400k. One had a four car garage!! 304k is the new low price leader.

Citywide the number is 97.

For fun I ran Murrieta and the MLS search maxed out with more than 250. I had to break it into two searches, below 350k and 350k to 400k, the total....drum roll...282!!! With 16 at or below 300k and lots close to or at $100 a square foot.

How do you spell meltdown?

It's gotten so bad up there and the houses/ neighborhoods so nice..........I have been looking!

Temecula guy

Can you suggest a good neighborhood, with good schools, that also has RV parking...I haven't had much luck.....

Thanks in advance, if you can.........

TG Sighting...

good to see you aren't catching knives

I can FEEL
the lowball cannon being loaded...

Voz

I'm waiting for 2700 sf for $175k in Murrieta. I'll give it a year. By that time, I should be ready.

"I can FEEL
the lowball cannon being loaded..."
Voz

I didn't know you were like that? But then you are very strange.......come on, bring a different personality up so we can go back and forth, and spend a lifetime battling. You've got nothing better to do...sit home in your dirty underwear, fantasize about how nice it would be to get a little on your honeymoon(if only you could find a dead body noone new about), and make up people to make life more exciting.....it is so boring and lonely sitting at home with nothing to do but blog all day!

You never have anything worth while to contribute.

Wow, three responses, I can usually hear an echo in here. VO, you are right, I keep loading and unloading the cannon. On one hand the banks are desperate and I keep finding repo listings that have gone six months without an offer by talking to realtors. I keep thinking that they can't ignore a 25% off offer if nobody has ever looked twice. It's a mixed bag, some realtors are angry because the bank loaned 550k, list for 375k thinking they are giving it away and I come walking talking like Trump Jr., citing closed sales, days on market, the fact that they have had no offers in six months and almost no showings. Then I say that they will be begging me for a 250k offer in six months so they might as well take it now, save us both the trouble of waiting. As of yet, I haven't written any offers, just conversations to get a feel for my strategy, we will see, I have about 30 days to decide which way to go.

Little lady, R.V. parking and cheap is a wicked combo. If it allows it it is either in an area with 1 acre lots and very expensive or in a place you wouldn't want to live (unless you want to live amongst the tattooed yahoos and their desert toys in the yard). I do find them but they are all falsly advertised. Here's an example:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Decent price at 375k, top notch schools and Redhawk HOA with R.V. parking. Two catches. First, I have no idea how you get the R.V. into that spot, it seems to be an impossible turn. Second, the Redhawk HOA forbids it. Notice the listing says R.V. parking (buyer to verify). They know you can't park it there. Long term R.V. parking is not permitted by municipal code on any street in Temecula and I know of no HOA that allows it on the side of the house, so you need to be in an unincorporated area or an area of customs on land. I do know of a Murrieta development that has a communal R.V. parking lot located within the gated community, you can walk to your rig but not keep it at the house.

If you want to spend the money, there are some sweet ones in Morgan Valley that have 4 car garages and the coolest feature I've seen in a big house, garage doors that also open to the backyard. You can open the bays and drive into tha backyard. There's also a tract in Morgan hill with three car garages and the third bay is R.V. size. You get two choices, pay a lot more, or store it. Heres a few ways to go for R.V. parking and good schools. 750k to start

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Marion, good luck with $64 a square foot, I wouldn't plan my life around that because it costs more to build than that. Why don't you shoot for 1750 sq for 175K. It's one thing to be a bear and another to be unrealistic. Why does a single woman with 2 kids need 2700 square feet? I don't want to start an argument with you because I really don't want to get you riled up and have you fire off some barbs about my hedonistic lifestyle but Mcmansions in So cal for 175K? With a modest 25k down payment, that is $750 P&I, I think the car wash guy can swing that. I wasted a good chunk of my higher education in economics classes so I feel qualified to say that when 90% of the population can afford the largest homes the supply and demand law will have been violated. For the same reason shacks couldn't remain at unsustainable price levels, your goal price wont be reached. Feel free to rebuke my point but lets keep this to math and housing, I'm way too fragile for psychoanalysis and one of my dearest female friends who loves cats and ice cream called me on the phone and chastised me the last time I engaged you on these boards. Tread lightly.

little lady, let me apologize for my weird friend VOZ. He was referring to a past thread where i mentioned that after the 1st of the year i was going to load the lowball cannon and see what I could hit ( my original words, not his). Sure he's a little different but this was all my fault and a bit of a joke on his part. If we were all the same it wouldn't be interesting. Don't run him off or be put off by him, he's harmless and entertaining, what more can you ask?

GREAT HOUSE that's all I want! But it's bull, right? We looked @ Redhawk and thought "PERFECT". We were told absolutely NO RV parking. I didn't know about the schools, that sounds great too. 750k is a little too steep......but beautiful none the less.....

We have the toy hauler and desert toys, but no on the tattoos thanks......I am a middle aged woman with 2 boys who like to ride...not my thing, I just like camping.....

I do remember you or someone else posting about the Temecula area being the best, if your buying in that area. I heard the west side because of the breeze. We had a breeze that sounds simular in our last home in Santee(similar climate). So I definately was interested in that area.

Thanks again, and thanks for always keeping us updated,always informative. What goes on up there, ends up down here eventually........

Oh voz, he's one mean spirited character...he can be quite insulting along with others here......you know what I mean....but I appreciate your thoughtfulness....thanks again...ttfn

Tg...About getting me riled up, my bark is worse than my bite.

I have no reason to go off on you. SO, why would I? In 1997-1998 that's where prices were. I just don't see why they can't get that way again. The couple who bought a home next to my parents, the wife worked at 7-11.

If you don't want to engage me, you don't have to.