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The "Real" Economy Is Dying: Q4 "Going to Be a Bloodbath"User Forum Topic
Submitted by Arraya on October 6, 2009 - 11:58am
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/art... Cut and paste from link: The banking sector's assets shrunk by about $300 billion per quarter in the first half of 2009, a sign of banks hoarding cash in anticipation of additional future losses, according to Whalen. "The real economy is shrinking because of a lack of credit." The shrinkage will continue into 2010, Whalen predicts, suggesting the banking sector hasn't yet seen the peak in loan losses. Institutional Risk Analytics forecasts the FDIC will ultimately need $300 billion to $400 billion to recoup losses to its bank insurance fund. (In other words, the $45 billion the FDIC sought to raise last week by asking banks to prepay fees is just a drop in the bucket.) "Investors should think about this because the fourth quarter in the banking industry is going to be a bloodbath," says Whalen, who believes smaller and regional banks like Hudson City Bancorp may come into favor vs. larger peers, which have dramatically outperformed since the March lows.
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Propping up housing prices is expensive. The banks are going to need another infusion of cash.
This morning I was at a starbucks picking up my coffee. I know I know, I've cut back but today I felt like it. While there, I saw these sales type people assembling for a meeting at the starbucks.
Anyhow, one of them was a lady who mentioned to another that someone she knew was giving up on 10 (?) properties and walking away. That guy was going to work as an employee at an engineering firm after walking away from a dozen or so residential/commercial properties. Start Fresh. She said he had no kids but a really good wife.
I didn't know whether to feel mad or bad for the guy.
I heard him on a radio talk show a couple of weeks ago, and he was also mentioning that of the 8500 or so banks that are out there, 2500 are insolvent right now. He is not someone with a political agenda he is just an analyst. I hope he is wrong about that, but what a number. He also said about 2000 are in very good shape, and the rest somewhere in between these two conditions.
He did predict very difficult times ahead due to this and mentioned this was more than what the government can handle in his opinion. It might be in the archives of Mo Ansari's Market Wrap on 1000 AM. I think I have those numbers right, but I might be off slightly with them.
I think if you go to Compak which is Ansari's managment company he said his shows are archived there for listening.
We keep getting forewarnings like this almost everyday, and yet everyone thinks I'm the crazy one for withdrawing all my 6 month emergency cash a couple weeks ago.
Why am I the only one who smells a 'bank holiday' coming soon, or worse?
Why am I the only one who smells a 'bank holiday' coming soon, or worse?
Why would you announce such a move?
Yesterday I attempted to widthdraw 10K cash from Union Bank PB and La Jolla branches. Both said they didn't have the money and I would have to come back later in the week. I was shocked, how could a large bank in La Jolla not be able to service 10K, a negligible amount in the scheme of things? The teller played it off like it was normal but I found it very suspicious. I have never experienced this before as I have make large widthdraws on many occasions. Is there something going on?
Deadzone,
Sorry, but perhaps you're being a bit too nice to the bank here. It is a bit of a rant, and again, sorry if im sounding preachy..... sometimes hearing this sort of thing just bugs me.
You asked: is something going on?
Yeah, something is definitely wrong.
I mean, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?? It's YOUR money. Not theirs. You aren't asking for a loan, or an outrageous sum of cash, you simply want YOUR money back NOW. Period.
10K in cash is not alot for a bank to have. I've bought used cars. 3k, 7k. Cash transactions, never a blink of an eye from the teller. ID, confirm signature, count it out, here ya go.
Personally, I would have started to escalate, informing them quite sternly that them not giving me MY money is unacceptable. "Then exactly how much of MY money do YOU want to give me?" I'd take that, then ask for a cashier's check, or money order, all the coins, have them call a different branch and arrange to hold the funds. If they still refused, or didnt have the cash, it would definitely start becoming a scene.
If you're at Walmart and the cashier refuses to give you your change, and they say "come back next week, here is an IOU" would you? It just doesn't make sense. It is simply wrong. Flat out wrong.
Tell them you're a lawyer and you want to file criminal charges. Theft is a crime. Tell them you're a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and you would like their name so you can spell it correctly in the a story you are about to publish of how their bank is out of cash. I'd bet they could find 10K pretty quickly.
With stories like Northern Rock or IndyMac in the news lately, man, if a bank told me that......wow......I'd run to every ATM and bank branch in town and pull all MY money out. I dont need to be waiting in line at the FDIC.
Again, sorry, bit of a rant but geeze, it's your money. You probably worked hard for it. Good luck with it hope it works out.
J
J
I have to agree whole heartily with your rant. To many consumers have become nothing more then tools for the corporations and companies servicing out economy. Until consumers become educated and bold enough to act as equal partners in our economy we are likely to continue to the the low standard of of business practices which are the standard.
Don't even get me started on the fact that it is impossible to purchase and new car without being presented a contract with the most unfavorable arbitration clause legally possible which every drone in the state gladly agrees to.
buy cars with cash. it is fun to watch the sales folks look at you like you are from a different planet. it is even more fun to watch them *try* to find the right forms for you to complete to finish the transaction. oops, this does not appply. oops, this does not apply. :)
i have never fully read the terms of the bank account contract, but i would beT they ahve to give you your money on demand, probably some federal reg. . i think. like, unless they were just robbed or there's some act f god. . dont' t hey ahve some moneys in another branch they could ship over? maybe they shoudl pay interest on the tme between your requets and delivery . plus a transaction fee (3% sounds about standard for the industry0.
If I remember correctly from the eighth grade, checking accounts are demand deposits. Savings accounts are not. Demand deposits, by law, must be paid on demand. Transfer the money to your checking, and write yourself a check for it.
Call the manager a day before you want the cash and tell them the amount and pickup time. They can make the arrangements/transfers and will have it ready for you.
Depending of the banks layout, you will be ushered to a commercial window or to an out of public view area. You will also be more comfortable than standing at a window watching the teller count big cash in view of other customers.
While $10k is not that much money for a bank, I'm thinking their security measures explain your experience.
I can confirm that I have done what Hobie suggested with my credit union and that they were able to accomodate. They did request a little advance notice.
Usually for larger quantities they request you call ahead for an appt to they are ready for you. I have no problem with this. I am just surprised that for a relatively small amount like 10k, two different branches couldn't accommodate, I think that is more than a cooincidence. Particurly since I have widthdrawn that amount in the past on several occasions without a call ahead and they didn't ask any questions.
If I wanted to be difficult, I could have asked them to pay all they had (in 20s if need be), then go to another branch for the rest, but I didn't have the time to mess around.
All this makes me wonder if this is related to bank problems. I read a few weeks ago UBOC just received an emergency cash infusion from their parent company (a Japanese bank). Since UBOC is not public, we don't really know how good/bad their situation is. The fact that they needed this extra funding implies they must have been on the FDIC watch list for not enough reserves.