The Many Faces of Shadow Inventory

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 20, 2010 - 2:53pm
After the last entry on foreclosure activity, a couple of readers sent in articles with more data relevant to the topic of "shadow inventory."

A commenter at my own site linked to a May Union-Tribune article about mortgage delinquencies.  Delinquencies are defined as mortgages on which payments are late by a certain number of days (60 in this case).  The reason this figure is interesting is that it captures all currently troubled mortgages, not just those that have been served with Notices of Default.  So delinquencies are a more inclusive measure of potential shadow inventory.

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Submitted by capeman on June 20, 2010 - 7:00pm.

That's the data I will include if a counter offer is needed on an REO we just put an offer on.

This game can go on for as long as cash flow is still positive for the banks but at some point is going to put even harder downward pressure on pricing when the music stops.

Submitted by jpinpb on June 20, 2010 - 7:12pm.

Rich, thanks for covering the all-encompassing forms of stealth.

In reading the UT article, "4.4 million mortgages in technical default" is alarming and I agree w/Sharga that I think the market is tenuous:

RealtyTrac’s Sharga called the current market “fairly tenuous” because a rise in joblessness, unemployment claims and housing construction could precipitate another downturn. He estimated a 55-month backlog of distressed properties needing to be resold.

But he said the nature of the inventory locally is changing from low-cost starter homes to higher-priced properties.

“You’re moving upscale into more expensive homes and a second wave of foreclosures,” he said.

And I do tend to agree w/Maddox on some areas it's true:

“I think San Diego is going to have a slight recovery for a little bit, but I don’t think it’s going to last,” Maddux said. “I think what is going to happen is there’s going to be another dip. There’s only so much stimulus money you can do, only so much government can provide. Ultimately, values are still overpriced.”.

Submitted by peterb on June 21, 2010 - 12:08pm.

It would be nice to get an update from Ramsey regarding his analysis of the current situation and where it's headed.

Submitted by 34f3f3f on June 22, 2010 - 10:50am.

With the gulf oil disaster, these issues are still on tender-hooks, and are being conveniently side-stepped. At some point soon, the media needs to ask Obama what he plans to do next?

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