San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

You did not hit the current bottom for TV (2009 is my guess) but your probably only maybe a year’s worth of rent from there anyway, really in TV unless you bought at the very tippy top a strategic default was kind of pointless anyway by the time you added all the other expenses and other headaches and guessing and worrying stuff.
I know people who spent more on their landscaping than the difference between top and current price.
If your going to be there 10 years, you are probably going to be OK.
Hey but it’s your call !!

Thanks for the response!

I've seen the prices come down almost 50% in the time since we've sold in 2005 and the current pricing. I agree that there might be some additional downside, but am really considering the alternatives of buying from a builder vs. buying a resale / REO / short.

Any thoughts on how much of a price premium is generally applied to builder / new construction purchases versus resale?

Also, any thoughts regarding the Estates at Morgan Hill or the builder would be a HUGE help!! I've been kinda out of the loop! :)

Wait for Temeculaguy to weigh in or send him a private message. That is his wheelhouse.

Very tippy top in TV for me was mid 2004 to early 2007.
Just felt I had to clarify.

Some areas in TV started to fall very fast from late 2007 to 2009.

I do like that area, and the houses seem nice. And now that the quarry is all but done, I'd say go for it.

If I were to buy in Temecula right now Morgan Hill would be my choice. We bought in Wolf Creek 4 years ago and we are happy but Morgan Hill seems a bit more mellow in general. We are within 2 miles of a high school, a middle school, an elementary school, a huge sports park, a fire station, a casino, and Pechanga Parkway. Not to mention there are 2 commercial lots yet to be built which will add to the congestion.

Every time I drive through Morgan Hill I consider moving there because of its location, views, and peacefulness. Both Morgan Valley and Morgan Hill have some great deals right now.

On a somewhat related note, Temecula was recently ranked the 2nd safest city in America for cities with over 100,000 residents based on FBI crime statistics.

http://www.businessinsider.com/safest-ci...

I like meadowview the very best but my wife wasn't into it.

Check it out-- right by the mall 1/2 acre lots, kind of hidden.

Still cheap.

I love it there.

i like this one:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/29880-...

Wow, guys, thanks for the info! It's nice to hear that we're not completely crazy for thinking about the area or about new construction right now. And I agree about Wolf Creek, it felt a bit uber-burban to me.

Also, Does anyone have any thoughts about Standard Pacific as a builder? Another areas or builders we should be thinking about in Temecula?

Are you trying to decide on Morgan Hill vs. other developments or specifically Standard Pacific's Estates tract vs. other tracts in Morgan Hill?

I currently live in Morgan Hill, and two others who are infrequent posters now but were active in the past (TemekuT and Bearvine) both actually know more than I and did influence my decision three years ago. If you search for "morgan" in the search box on this site yo can read a lot of threads specifically dedicated to morgan or the differences between the tracts. I've lived in Redhawk for 9 years and will always love it. I have immediate family there and other family in Wolf Creek and they love it there. It's just preference, benefits and cost. Redhawk has the lowest taxes of the three (about 1% +1k/yr), the lowest hoa ($35) but other than pretty landscaping and the waterfall, no clubhouse or pool. Wolf is on flat land and is close to stuff like mentioned above, but that sports park is one of the nicest in the country, all three levels of school are a walk away, soon to be some stores, some people dig that, plus it's new. It has the middle level of HOA (I'm not exactly sure but maybe $75) and has a pool and clubhouse and stuff. The taxes are about 1% + 1800 or 2k/ yr. Morgan has a clubhouse nicer than most Marriots, multiple tennis courts, clubhouse that is wedding quality, pool tables, foosball, air hockey, kids art rooms and full schedules, yoga classes, and on and on. It's always staffed, they let you check out basketballs, tennis rackets, even the pool floating noodle things. You don't need to haul stuff there. fingerprint biometrics to enter, full gym and a pool that is epic and never crowded. But you pay, taxes are 1% +3k/yr and $110 for HOA. Other than the elementary school, walking to the middle school is a bear because while it's only a mile, it's all up hill getting home. The high school is a difficult hilly bike ride at best. It's also more expensive, the view lots usually have small backyards. I like it, but I don't dislike the other spots, or even quite a few other places in and around Temecula. Orange County and 4S type demographic transplants seem to gravitate to morgan. I kinda like it because it has a low ratio of monster trucks, but the hoa places tend to be nicer and stay nicer up here because the dirt people avoid them because of the restrictions on their toys so that's not unique to morgan.

Now if you just want to know about that tract. Standard Pacific is a national builder, they use local subcontractors and people who who bought stan pac homes in wolf creek that I know really like their homes, so it should be similar. national builders build a variety of products in different places, I don't think you can knock any builder for homes they build in a different market segment or another area, it's just not like McDonalds, it's not the same everywhere just because the name is the same.

I gave a friend and his wife a tour of the morgan tracts last weekend. The dropped me off and went to the models for a few of the new ones without me so I haven't seen them. I spoke to them afterwards and the prices seemed a little high, in the 400's for the size they wanted and those were about 350k in the 2005-2008 built tracts as repos or resales, so it seemed high to me. They also look kinda plain, but those might not be the stan pac ones, there are multiple builders in morgan, even multiple new builders so I may be mixing them up. My worry is that they might be cutting corners because margins are slimmer, but they also might not be because they bought the remaining lots at a discount. The 2005-2008 built resales were built when money was growing on trees and were selling for 500-700k, so most of them are heavily upgraded and have lots of money put into them in hardscape and stuff by the bubble buyers who took no equity second mortgages. There are some steals to be had but pickings are slim because it is one of the nicest developments. Everyone we looked at on Saturday was in escrow if it was reasonably priced. The majority of the bubble bought ones have turned over so there will be no tsunami, yet it should be fairly steady. Morgan valley is not part of the morgan hill hoa or the clubhouse, it's a different category of housing, 1/2 acre lots and 4k sq feet, 4 car garages in some, rear garage doors so you can drive trough into your backyard, I'm not comparing those, that's another category, here's a morgan valley example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34100-...

morgan hill is primarily tract homes with the exception of frogs leap and arietta streets which are within morgan hill but a class above a tract home. here's a frogs leap morgan hill example

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44752-...

I just checked and the plain ones I was referencing are richmond homes. But my comparison of a 350k home new looks like this

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/34164-...

youll notice its 2100 sq ft, minimal view and a 2 car garage.

but the west side of butterfield looks more like this for 350k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44819-...

you cant see the view because there no pictures of it but its really nice, it's six years old but 1/3 larger and 1/3 more garages for the same money.

This next one is the same size as the new one, same garages but listed for 100k less, Page 2 of the pictures has some pics of the clubhouse, but not great pics, yet worth a look

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44821-...

So my assessment is why pay 350k for a new house with no view or landscaping when for 250k you can get a view. I just think the new ones are priced too high, but they are selling. And truth be told, that 250k went pending instantly, my guess is that it went for 300k, if not more, that was a bidding war listing price, it's fair price is 300-325k, but still, the view is awesome and I know the 3000k sq ft resales are going for 350k, so what makes a 2100 sq ft unlandscaped one worth 350k?

Now my buddy said the stan pac ones had big yards and views and he said they were nice, so I can't give an opinion until I go look at them personally. As far as the neighborhood, I love it. In 20 years in this valley I've owned or rented 7 places, a north temecula, a murrieta, 3 redhawks and now a morgan, I've been in morgan three years and can honestly say, this is my favorite, but the redhawks were a close second in my mind. Lower taxes and lower hoa. Between the three major developments of south temecula, I see it as a personal decision, each has a drawback and a benefit, just pick the things important to you and you can't lose.

I just re-read your post and see that you are mostly trying to decide between new vs. repo vs. short. vs. resale. I mostly hit on that but I think the inventory is tightening up again. Here is an old thread that may help strategy wise because I boguht when it was equally tight, albeit a little cheaper because the wheels were coming off the economy, but the game remains the same.

http://piggington.com/tg_closes_escrow

here's some past morgan hill threads to chew on, some had an influence on my decision

http://piggington.com/morgan_hill_and_mo...

http://piggington.com/recap_on_temeclua_...

That was a nice place WW,

there's cheap ones in meadowview too, it's just everything's kind of old. but it's right smack in the middle of town, with very difficult access roads that hide it, and it has a several hundred acre meadow in the middle.

and an aggressive HOA that is cheap but diligent, and my wife said they would kick us out because I am such a slob.

I like meadowview as well, but it's another type of housing being that it is all half acres+ and customs, not really comparable to a tract house. It's also rarely in the same price range. That one looks to be a steal, but it's pending and we cannot be sure at what price it is pending, my guess is it is peding over list. It's also bank owned, yet it's staged. If the realtor went to the trouble of staging and sprucing up a repo, they are looking to maximize the price, not dump it to the first knucklehad that walks in. Further causing me to think it will go for over list (plus it's zillow is 370k). But's it's a find, if it can be had for 350K, that is it's 2002 price and only 100k over the 1999 price, if I wanted land (which I hate nearly as much as breast reduction surgeries) I would be all over that place in a second.

I've visited.and tracked literally dozens of meadowview places over the last couple years, and it's interesting to me that a lot of people who've lived here a while don't know the place exists.

Thanks all, especially TemeculaGuy, for the awesome insights!!!

Right now, kind of both. I wasn't sure of the impression of Morgan Hill in general since we've been gone - I had heard that it stalled a bit during the 08 timeframe. I appreciate the encouragement, as it seems that's no longer the case. Also, the "Estates" development specifically seems very new, but with most lots >10,000 sf, it's nice to have a bit more of a back yard.

I don't mind the HOA, and actually appreciate with the amenities that are included. Heck, you'd probably pay that much for a gym membership anyway. And having a pool and other amenities is awesome, as we have two boys (10YO & 8YO).

I'm totally with you here. I looked at a few neighborhoods with several trailers and the like. Some seemed to have a lower pride of ownership as well. Nothing against anyone, just not our areas of interest.

I looked at the Morgan Hill Villas and the Estates at Morgan Hill, both by Standard Pacific. I really loved the larger lot sizes at the Estates - the one I was looking at was about 3500sf, $455k w/o the backyard, and on a 10,000sf lot with a bit of a view. Does that seem somewhat reasonable, or do you think that's way too high?

These might be the ones I'm looking at as well. Any thoughts on a 3500sf unlandscaped house on a larger lot/some view @ 450K?

We're thinking that Morgan Hill could be a very good fit, as long as we don't significantly overpay to get there. Also looking at Paseo del Sol, as it seems like a similar type of neighborhood (but maybe not quite as "high end").

Ignore everything I say. I think I'm one of those people you'd not want to live near. The entire front and back if any place I live immediately gets a sort of junkyard/ shantytown look.

I promised my wife I'd change but...I still have buckets strategically placed around the yard for me and the kids to pee in so I can dilute it for fertlizer. And there was a downed palm tree that was lying there for 7 months. And lots of old bikes. And a rickshaw. And some building supplies. And a lot of cars. And tools. And a wheelbarrow. And a big pile of garbage...

Lol - WW. I have two boys, so there are days that I think strategically placed pee buckets could be just the right approach!

California could save 7 million gallons of water per day if we just had our state's boys pee out of doors in buckets. And think of all the urine you wouldn't need to clean off the floor.

Plus it's valuable fertilizer; you call it human waste. I call it Liquid Gold.

What's the Morgan hill hoa position on outdoor pee buckets? Ok in the backyard not in the front? I'd have a hard time with that because I'd want to be able to pee quickly wherever I was.

I have a theory about sphincter wear from holding in urine.

Wow, I think we've set a record for derailing a thread!

Appreciate any other thoughts or considerations in our decision-making process regarding the "Estates at Morgan Hill" or about buying from a builder in this market in general.

Thanks all!

Sorry!

I'm actually not sure where Morgan hill is.

Ah wait I checked tg's links. I was just there a few weeks ago I got a free empty 55 gallon steel drum from Freecycle someone around there cleaning out there garage. It looks nice. I like butterfield stage road wide shoulder for bikes.

Morgan hill!!! Nice!!!

The drum is now in my front yard.

I thought so, too, and love one-story homes of about this size. But I feel if one were to put it in escrow now, their fire insurance binder would give them six months (at most) to replace the (now outlawed) shake roof or be non-renewed. Some companies would insist it be done in escrow (which would require a longer escrow and more negotiations with the seller).

Temecula is loaded with rednecks (IMO) and you will not escape that fact by moving to Morgan Hill.

Sooner or later you'll have to visit Ralph's and you will encounter the rednecks and their lifted redneck trucks.

By the way, is Morgan Hill actually part of Temecula now or is it still an unincorporated area of Riverside County?

Morgan Hill is unincorporated.

Re: Rednecks in Morgan Hill - don't judge that one by the lifted truck. Paramount, spend some time actually getting to know the locals and you will find that most of the residents in Morgan Hill, as well as TG and I, are not rednecks, have significant academic and professional credentials, and still drive trucks, but also own foreign cars.

I am involved in this community and the HOA, I am acquainted with many people in Morgan Hill, and I find your ongoing stereotype tiring and inaccurate.

Get to know the locals? You must be joking.

Oh no I get it, sounds like a phony Morgan Hill culture may be developing (or has developed) whereby they consider themselves a Thousand Points of Light overlooking the Gentiles.

I swear, it never ends...

I know you are a local and I am not a fool. I am just weary of your whining. You don't really know the locals because you like to promulgate the stereotype that we are all a bunch of oafs and rednecks. How many civic and charitable endeavors are you involved in? How invested are you in the well-being of others here? I have posted numerous examples about people I encounter who have moved from more sophisticated and economically upscale areas who are in Temecula by choice. You have posted for years about what a terrible place Temecula is. Why are you still here if you hate this place so much?

That is simply not true.

I love Temecula, I fought hard to stop the quarry for example. I fought hard to get the hospital built (even though my contribution was small).

I work every week to keep my hood safe and clean.

I volunteer at the schools, scouts and I'm at the sports park every weekend cheering our soccer team.

I posted hard hitting videos about how Temecula is getting fleeced by the City Manager who makes more than the President of the United States.

I'm helping to establish term limits for the city council.

I plan to spend the rest of my life in Temecula - and feel fortunate to live here.

Temecula: One of the safest cities in the United States!

Despite all of that - Temecula, aka Rednecula, is a redneck republic. Nothing wrong with that - like the saying goes - it is what it is.

Paramount - I don't know how you managed to slip in between my post and yours and edit your post to deleted the verbage where you called me a fool, but I really don't appreciate it.

And just for what it is worth, I don't recall you posting anything positive about Temecula. That's ok, this place may not be your Nirvana, but still, why are you here if you are so unhappy?

I think Temecula sounds great, with all of you interesting people living together in harmony with rednecks in lifted trucks. It sounds like Lakeside with HOA's. Just kidding, but it cannot be that bad. It has wineries and decent restaurants. Have TG tell you about how he felt when he was lost in East County. He was terrified! By the way, I think Walter would make a wonderful neighbor because of his love of the environment and because he believes in recycling. HH I think you will enjoy living there and good luck to you in your house hunting.

Don't mind paramount - he's just Temecula's Eeyore.

I can't say much about Morgan Hill - haven't been over there in a while (I live in Crowne Hill.)

One day I was on a bike ride with the kids and checked out the models of the new places at Paseo Del Sol, across Butterfield Stage. They were nice but seemed very pricey for what you get.

Don't underestimate the additional costs of buying new. Window treatments, garage shelving, landscaping, etc., it all adds up!