San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Summer 2012 SD Housing Price Top
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Submitted by sdduuuude on July 11, 2012 - 2:29pm
OK. I'm calling a price top for San Diego and Carmel Valley this Summer that won't be revisited again until 2014 or later.
I can't say I'm 100% confident in the call and it is a little contrarian, given that we are currently in a low-inventory (and low inventory-to-sales) situation, but it is a combination of wishful thinking and my usual thorough analysis - which involves reading other people's stuff and guessing who is right based on whether or not they have recently destroyed or been destroyed in debate.
I'm using the Redfin "Sold $/SqFt" graphs as my metric:
Right now, those numbers are $210 (SD) and $325 (CV).
Some thoughts behind the prediction:
2) Such as the recession of 2012. It looks to be a reality. Indeed, the global recession of 2012 has started and will be making its way into the US very soon. I have always said the next recession would hit the "higher end" folks harder than the last.
3) Quantitative easing is running into the problem of diminishing returns so QE3 will try but not succeed in coming to the rescue.
4) I have often described the housing market (prices) as a ball bouncing down a hill. Look at the red Redfin chart to the right. Looks exactly like that, huh? It'll keep bouncing but off a lower and lower base.
5) Seasonality. Spring is over. Fall is coming. and I think the recession of 2012 will take the "bounce" out of the 2013 spring bounce.
6) Rates. I'm not saying rates are going through the roof, but I can't see them really falling much more.
7) It's a bold and delicious call and good fodder/entertainment for the PIGGS. I'm anxious to be proven wrong or right.
8) I'm not claiming how much farther it'll go - just that we won't see these price levels for another 2 years. Maybe 3.
9) I really wanted to make the bold claim that the top is already in, but late Summer may bring one more bump.
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