San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Hi Sunny

I am very familiar with Stonebridge as it literally is right down the street from where I live.

I believe your opinion is valid but personally I am a little more pessimistic about Stonebridge then some others may be. If you compare Stonebridge to say 4S you get much more home and much more lot in Stonebridge. However you do not have any of the nice infrastructure that 4S has. No new schools, no nice shopping mall, nothing of the sorts. Access into Stonebridge is poor.

We have seen dramatic reductions in Stonebridge dues to distress. I see that Stonebridge is particularly susceptible to future distress because of buyers who purchase there with little or no money down and toxic loan structures. If you can be patient you may find great deals later in 09 and beyond. I have shown quite a few places there so sit tight if you can or lowball bigtime. Beware though that the denial still runs deep there.

SDR, what would you say would be a decent $/sqft for one of the homes there?

In my opinion I believe 200 psf is something that would be "decent" with some slop built in for the size of the lot and the location within the entire subdivision. I am a little concerned about the Sunrise Powerlink that will go through but I think they will just put up another set of lines adjacent to the current set that runs on the south boundary. I think one of the lamer places dropped into the mid 600's awhile back but I don't recall what it sold for. There is a pretty wide margain of quality between the lower and higher end homes in Stonebridge.

True about denial in Stonebridge. This was featured on OC's blog and it's still for sale. Over a year now. Hasn't budged on the price.

Someone told me centuries from now, archeologists will find it and it will be the new Stonehenge, w/a for sale sign still on it.

SD realtor,

Thank you for your comments. Could you tell me which homes in "Stonebridge" you consider higher and which one lower quality homes based on you experience? Also, are there be any schools and stores planned in "Stonebridge"? It would be very inconvenient for the residents if there is no infrastructure within this neighborhood...

We are looking in Stonebridge as well. We plan on submitting a few offers next year. We will keep all bids under $200.oo per sqft. There is a Catholic school that will open in fall 2009. We will be using that school so the location works for us. I would agree that the builders and individual home buyers are in denial regarding home values.
Local Guy

The catholic school is St Gregory and it will serve K-8. Stonebridge residents do enjoy the Poway school disctrict. However in the case for high school the commute to either Poway, Westview, Mt Carmel or Rancho Bernardo high school is non trivial. All of them are quality schools so that is cool. Stonebridge has very cool walking paths and trails with some very nice plans to hook up to the Sycamore Canyon and Mission Trails areas. There are 3 nice parks in there as well.

I think there are good deals to be had and continued opportunities. I had a client who I was representing last year and we were working with Davidson last year at the Scripps Preserve but they would not come down to my clients offer. This is my personal favorite of the homes in there. However I have heard they are dealing a bit more aggressively now.

Scripps Preserve has indeed lowered the price for some of their homes. Model 1 homes are being offered for around $900k (4,600 sqft), model 2 homes start at $950k (4,750 sqft)and model 3 homes (5,400 sqft) at $1,140k. I think they are willing to negotiate even better prices now due to the slow economy. The drawback of these homes is that nice upgrades and landscaping are quite expensive due to the size of the homes (lots). Also, the location is very inconvenient as the homes are in the far east end of Stonebridge. I can only imagine how bad the traffic will be once Stonebridge has been built out.
This is a recent press release: "In time for holiday celebrations in their new homes, Phase 4 homeowners have begun moving in at Scripps Preserve at The Estates at Stonebridge, according to the builder, Davidson Communities. With the model homes all sold and the final homes now under construction, the neighborhood of luxury home is nearing completion. Just eight homes remain available for sale."
Personally, I like "Serenity", but my understanding is that these are cheaper versions of the "Calabria" models.

It is not a big surprise that San Diego is amongst the top 10 worst real estate markets. Just look at the new homes currently sold in "Stonebridge". There are a lot of foreclosures in this area and the new homes are moving very slowly. Despite the slow market the builders have not be willing to lower the prices to a reasonable level which would be around $200 per sqft. As long as there is such a surplus of preexisting homes the new homes will not be sold. Also, the high Mello Roos is scaring a lot of homebuyers away.

It sure likes like prices have dropped significantly now. Is there more downside?

See this link: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090041971-14...

Hi SDR,

We have been considering a location in Sanctuary. I think I saw a model 2 come up for sale below $1M last week, but I don't have access to my email here to check. Any comments on what you have seen in that tract?

Hi Bob

To be 100% honest I have not been tracking Stonebridge for about 2 months now as I am kind of busy. I will try to take a look at it in the next few days.

The prices have really dropped out here for an existing home. The remaining builders are still asking in my opinion pretty high prices. You can walk around the corner though and pick up a near new house for quite a bit less. We purchased a new home in Scripps Preserve, April 2009, and are really pleased. There are some good homes for sale under a million dollars. There is no reason to pay more. I have noticed within the last month more people driving through the area and at the sales offices, Montoro & Tiburon.
Localguy

I saw the model houses in Stonebridge, the house seems to be a million dollar house, but the view is really bad.. for a million dollar house, the view has power line, that's the big problem. If they sell it cheap, I still won't buy a house closed to the power line, the power line tower there is not small. The effect from it can spread wider.

I have to agree with you. We almost bought a home in the "Calabria" division but weren't able to find a lot with a decent view. You either look at power lines or warehouses in the distance. Also, the access is difficult and shopping is very inconvenient. We did like the house but eventually backed off due to the high price and MR.

Were you trying to bargain with the sales people to get a getter deal? I heard that they were willing to discount the selling price after the sales slowed down and the number foreclosures started to go up in Stonebridge. The same happend at "Scripps Preserve" where prices went down significantly last year.

We tried to bargain and offered 10% less than their asking price but they only came down by about 3% by offering some upgrades for "free". They stated that the interest was great at that time. We also looked at "Scripps Preserve" which appeared to be a better value but decided against it due to high MR and inconvient location.

The Calabria homes are poorly located in relation to the power lines. They tend to be really packed in close to each other as well. The current phase they are building now are really crammed in.
Regarding the MR's, you have to factor those into your payment. They are what they are.
For some, myself included, the 5 minute drive in on Stonebridge Pkwy is worth it. It is really quiet out here. In contrast our previous home was close to everything, shopping, freeway, etc., yet we had quite a bit of noise and traffic. A big factor in our decision moving here was that we only have to walk 2 blocks to school. Everyone has different priorities.
My overall take on Stonebridge is to search out value in an existing home that is in distress. Don't get caught up in the remaining builders hype regarding the state of the housing market.
Localguy

guys, take it from someone that lives there, listen to localguy. calabria sucks to the max, every one of those homes are within a few feet away from high voltage lines, something that folks with the means for million dollar homes will simply not consider.

localguy said to look for existing distressed homes instead of going to the builders, I think I know what he meant:

here's a 5390 sqft "Tiburon" that went for $975,000, or $180/sqft, this one already has the built-in fridge plus flooring and everything else:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090004189-15...

yet, someone was stupid enough to buy the cheaply built Montoro at 5000 sqft for $966,000.

Compared to the "Scripps Preserve" homes "Montoro" is definitely overpriced in my opinion. Also, the location is awful, some of the homes are sitting deep down in the canyon with no view whatsoever and the lots are so big that it will take a fortune to landscape them. I think the builder will have to lower the price significantly before any buyers will come...
As for "Calabria", the homes are quite nice abut also overpriced and if you consider a resale it will be almost impossible to even break even. We are very glad we didn't buy here as some other nicer homes in Scripps Ranch have come up for sale with lower MR and location.

I don't live there BUT I must say CALABRIA is the best community out in Stonebridge! The Standard features are excellent. Compared to Scripps Preserve, Tiburon, and Montoro. Calabria has a single story home that is amazing and it is the best single level home I've ever seen.

Model 1 of "Calabria" is quite nice if you look at the floor plan and if you can get a lot like the model home with a decent view without power lines. I don't think any of the other models offer a single level home. BTW, I believe the model homes are coming up for sale soon.

calabria and powerline

we been to calabria a few times over the last couple of years. loved the models, the floorplans are very nice.

but bottom line, most of the calabria homes, including the models, are within 500 feet of high voltage lines. i know the jury is still out on this issue health wise. but from a resale point of view you'll simply have a very difficult time selling a million dollar home that sits so close to high voltage lines.

omg..is that a real picture ? it looks terrible... even it is free, I won't put my life in risk there.

It's not free (yet). The owner paid close to $1 million for this house...

Hi all: I just noticed this blog. I live in Sanctuary, and like it here. The five minute drive to town does not bother me, and the country feel is nice. Yes the power lines are everywhere up here, but nowhere near Sanctuary, except for a very distant view. Not my favorite view either. I have not seen anyone mention lot size. If you want to do well, avoid the small lots. A 5000+ sf home should be on a substantial lot. Sanctuary averages closer to a half acre, and that is phenominal (and expensive to landscape). Don't spend a million on any house you can barely put a pool on. My opinion, if you can find a 5000+ house on a LARGE lot with a view for close to a million, buy it. There are several short sales, like the model two noted above, which is a great deal. I know they have at least $1.5M in it. Sanctuary is the real deal, not a power line community or a row house with no yard. By the way, they just sold out at the sales office (including the models pushing $1.4M, so once the short sales are gone (there are three), prices may escalate. At least I hope and think so. I wish you well.

Who are you? I would not want to pay the taxes or the payment on a million dollar home and even if you believe half of the bank holiday topic, you have to consider that we are not at the bottom despite what TG and some of the bulls say. I say it is wishful thinking and I think you are either under the influence, a realtor or both.

losinglouie, so how much is your water bill every month?

So far, I haven't seen such a home. Are you saying this will happen within the next year?