San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Stonebridge has taken a pounding and will continue to do so albeit maybe at a slower pace. Someone on this site had emailed me a listing below 600k if you can believe that.

Think of Stonebridge as a 4S Ranch but without any of the nice community that 4S has. Stonebridge is served by PUSD which is great but there are not any schools within Stonebridge. All of the infrastructure is outside it which can be a chore to get to. On the flip side the spacing and lot sizes of Stonebridge is vastly superior to 4S.

As you commented we have hit a dead spot with respect to inventory. Inventory levels are down and things are sticky right now. Lenders are dragging feet on short sales because of the possibility of pushing the bad loans off to the government and recent legislation has thrown foreclosure processing timelines for a loop. So everything is dragging longer then usual. The slowdown has resulted in decent activity for homes on the market that are priced right and show well in desireable areas. People still looking to get price premiums are still in denial though. I know many of them.

Any info on Tiburon by Cornerstone? Those homes are stunnning...albeit a bit too large for the lots. When I was last there a few months ago, they were still sticking to their $1.2mm asking price for the Residence 2 plan.

Here is some recent data from Scripps Preserve. I'm not sure what floor plans these are.

15571 Camden Pl $800K 4-30-2008
15579 Camden PL $905K 8-08-2008
15587 Camden PL $929K 6-10-2008

I have heard that Davidson is willing to deal on these homes, so you can probably get the price you want.

Not exactly the place I would want to be now. Been there, long way in and out.
But, 20 years who knows?

homeshopping, some of those prices are at pre-01 pricing. I think the builder took a loss on those.

Any idea how flexible these builders are on price after lowering the base? And how much are the tricked-out houses that you see in the virtual tours? If the REO we're trying to buy doesn't work out, we may be looking at Stonebridge.

This guy has got to be bummed out. 13348 Shadetree

FYI.. I called Cornerstone. Apparently they're only on Phase 3 of 7. Prices really haven't changed much since I last saw the models in the first quarter of this year. Residence 2 still starts at around $1.2mm (~$210-230/sf).

Cornerstone is also going to be launching a new community very close to Tiburon called Montero. The models will ready in January 2009. Floorplans will range from 3500sf - 5000sf, so a bit smaller than Tiburon. Good news is that the lots will average about 25,000sf (0.6 acres) of flat, usable space. Stay tuned for pricing.

Why would s/he be bummed out? S/he paid $1,080,000 last year. Looks like a flip attempt to me. Now the original owner who paid $1.457M? S/he is probably the bummed one.

That's a nice house, but if I'm going to live out there, I'm going to want a way bigger yard than that.

nybuyer, if brookfield's serenity (to replace calabria) is any indication, cornerstone's montero would be very cheap replacements of tiburon.

brookfield was going to build calabria on all of the lots currently slated for serenity. calabria went for $1.2 to $1.5 million. they changed strategy last year and phased out calabria to build "serenity", which are very cheaply made homes of the similar sqft going from high 800k to $1 million.

cornerstone's lots for montero come straight from lots slated for tiburon before and they are likely going down the same path as brookfield.

what you should do is go and see the models at calabria and then go see serenity, you'll see the difference instantly. that will be the tiburon-montero difference.

for more info on 13348 shadetree, see here: http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/searc...

interesting...and that's what i thought at first, so i asked the agent if they were continuing to build tiburon through phase 7 or if montero would take over. she said they are two different developments, and that they will be continuing with tiburon. also, if i recall correctly, the tiburon lots are only 12,000-15,000sf, compared to what she was saying for montero at nearly 0.6acres.

We were out at Tiburon/Montero yesterday and they had a price sheet. At least for the first phase, the lots are on a big flat cul-de-sac with good proximity to the recently finished park and green area, although you do obviously have the drive into the neighborhood to deal with [it's about 4 minutes average speed to get back to the corner of Spring Canyon and Pomerado];-)

Models are set to finish in Jan, but they can walk people through on the weekend (when work isn't taking place).

Residence 1: 3655 sqft, Lot sz 19660, $804990
Residence 2: 4285 sqft, Loz sz 15663, $839990
Residence 2: 4285 sqft, Lot sz 30692, $874990
Residence 2 w/casita: 5015 sq ft, Lot sz 29167, $924990

Can you explain what you mean a bit more by "cheap replacement"? Are the finishes cheaper or the construction itself?

they are different developments my a$$

if you pull up a stonebridge master plan map from just last year, tiburon was going to encompass all fo the current lots slated for tiburon as well as the cul de sac lots now becoming montero.

the idea in 2005 was to start building on the smaller lots and the larger lots on the cul de sac would be the grand finale with obviously much higher pricing.

this is similar to davidson where they had phase 1 homes backing to stonebridge parkway but with the last phase homes with canyon views.

and similar to calabria selling phase 1 homes facing the high voltage power lines first and leaving the lots higher up the hill for later phases.

what I mean about construction differences is you can have the same 4000 sqft home, but one constructed as a mega-tract home, in other word an overgrown 3000 sqft 4S type home with additional loft and a bigger master with a retreat. or one that's a true luxury home.

despite similar size and from the same builder, you can spot that difference between calabria and serenity right off the bat. that's why I say if you want to see the difference between tiburon and montero, go see the calabria/serenity difference.

I'll put it to you this way, let's assume the builders all got the lots at $500k per.

with calabria brookfield spent $100/sqft to build true luxury homes at 5000sqft, that gives us $1 million in capital investment per home, but if brookfield can sell the home for $1.4 million, that's fine.

now that the 1+ million market is gone, brookfield now spend $75/sqft to build 4000 sqft mega-tract homes on these same lots, now they can sell at $900k and still come away with some profit.

cornerstone is following the same playbook.

if you are impressed by tiburon, you'll be vastly disappointed by montero.

that's a shame because i think the tiburon homes are absolutely stunning - specifically plan 2.

if the plan 2s were on the large 0.6acre lots and priced in the $800s, i'd pick one up in a heartbeat. guess we will have to wait a bit longer for that to set in...

compared to brookfield, davidson, and warmington, cornerstone and shea have been the most resistant in price reductions. both builders have not dropped prices below $1 million.

the problem with waiting for cornerstone to drop prices is if you go in to tiburon to offer your lowball, they can just point you to montero.

kinda like if you try to get the price down on a lexus, they just tell you to go across the street to the toyota dealership.

well, maybe more unemployment will put pressure on these developers to lower prices. just read on friday that california unemployment reached 8.2%, the highest its been in 14 years. not sure where most of this is concentrated, but i'm guessing all parts of so cal will be affected.

nybuyer, developers are already hurting because the banks are pulling line of credits from under them. that's why some of the developers are actually taking offers for less than replacement cost. of course, some builders are more flexible than others. in the case of brookfield and cornerstone, knowing that they switched strategies and decided to build cheap knock-offs of their original grand productions do make it harder to bargain with them. so you are left with other builders that did not go that route.

generally, $100-$150k off latest discounted asking will likely be taken.

any prediction on what the price will be or should be for serenity and montero, considering the increasing lay-offs and price falling everywhere?

Not so Mello, Roos...

Has anyone really thought about the true cost of these home in 4S and Stonebridge, not to mention Del Sur? I can tell you the one reason most of these beautiful homes are not selling or are in foreclosure is because of those damn hellatious Mello Roo and high HOA fees.

For us, we could afford to buy in any of these great locations, but simply refuse to do so because of those fees. And some may think..Well, if you can afford it, you wouldn't worry about the fees". Well the reason we CAN afford it is because we haven't and won't make bad financial choices like paying Mello Roos because to us it's simply throwing cash away.

Think about how much more home you could buy without them? And what the heck are they for anyway? Roads, Schools, Libraries, Parks? Come on! School's are losing State funding this year, libraries are closing, roads suck and parks can't afford to be watered.

If you take these non-tax-deductible Mello Roo and HOA fees and amortize them over say 15 years..you have a huge loss to add to any gain at the sale. Most of these bonds are for 30 years and can go up each year.

A 1-million dollar home in Stonebridge has an average Mello Roo of $5K per year and HOAs around $1,800. That's (average) $6,800 a year, minimum. Were you to invest that same $6,800 a year in say a mere 4% account, you would have earned around $140K in 15 years. So go ahead and deduct that from your profit, at time of sale. BTW - 30 years @ 4% will be $400k that you could have stockpiled or invested someplace else. What a drag!!

Another way to look at it is that same $560 per month translates into a $100K home loan. Simply put, you can either buy up $100K someplace else without the Mello Roos and take the tax deduction or buy an investment property someplace and grow some real profits!

I just can't stomach those fees..It's just craziness..ONLY in CA!

http://bubbleinfo.squarespace.com/journa...

Hate to break the news, but 99% of the Mello Roo payers just report the taxes paid that is reported by the bank on your 1098 form they mail in February. Which is includes both taxes. I know it's not 100% right, because you have to deduct the infrastructure costs out of the MR, but that's what is being done.

paranoid, I say $700k for serenity and montero.

could be ocr but not in the near future. maybe fall of 2010.

I say anyone who bought one of the last of those Davidson beauties when they were dumping them at the end of year defitinely caught a nice window of opportunity to get a great new home that may not come again. Kudos to any of you that had to foresight to do so........

Brian- Thanks for the news flash, but I already am well aware - I am a tax accountant by trade and I have constant contact with the FTB and IRS, who are also both well aware.

I do not include my tax clients Mello Roos payments in their returns because they ARE NOT tax deductible. And you are correct..it's not 100% right, it's 100% wrong..

As for the infrastructure cost: "a deduction is not allowed where a tax is assessed against property to fund local benefits and improvements tending to increase the value of property, unless such tax is specifically allocable to maintenance or interest expenses. Local benefits include streets, sidewalks, and other like improvements."

On another note: many of these homes are above the 1 million threshold anyway, and most of my clients who can afford to buy these type of homes are already limited in itemizing due to their higher incomes. So they truly don't get the full deduction either way.

The debate over right or wrong to deduct is a similar debate one can have about speeding on the freeway. We all know the limit, but we take the risk and go above that limit irrespective of getting caught. Most buyers know that they cannot deduct Mello Roos, but they take the risk of possibly being audited and do it anyway.

I think that sdrealtor is referring to the homes at Scripps Preserve listed below:

3-12-09 15572 Via La Ventana $735K
3-02-09 15533 Mission Preserve Pl $750K
3-30-09 15581 Via La Ventana $798K

Those are some nice homes, ranging from 4600-5800 sf. Lot sizes averaged around 16,000 sf.

I think at those prices that Davidson may have sold below cost. I agree that we may not see those kinds of prices ever again.

If only the community were not so far from the freeway ...

I also think they got the best value in terms of dollar/square feet that won't happen again. There won't be homes like that.

These homes are great, only the location is less than desirable. Shopping is miles away and the scenery is rather uninspiring.

just wait another 2 years, and check this again.

how is the school district?