San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Great area but there are others that know far more about it than I. I'm sure you will hear from the likes of AN and SD Realtor shortly as well as a few others.

The 92126(MM) side were built b4 the 92121(SV) side (early 90s vs late 90s). Price wise, for similar sq-ft, 92121 usually fetch about 10-15% more than the 92126 side. 92121 side have a lot options for larger homes vs 92126 side (~1500-3000sq-ft vs ~1500-2100sq-ft). The dividing line for zip code is Camino Santa Fe (west of it is 92121 and east of it is 92126).
92121 w/ canyon view tend to have larger backyard vs 92126, where you'll have canyon view but the backyard tend to be smaller. I'd say canyon view probably fetch ~5% more in price.
I can't really answer who lives here question, but my guess would be people who work around 92121 and don't want a long commute.
Rent for a 2100sq-ft house is around $2400-2600, depending on season, condition of the house. There's not a big rental price difference between 92121 and 92126 for similar house.
If I didn't already recently bought a house and IF a decent house at decent price come up, I would buy there. The key word is IF, since supply in that area is very slim (~8-10 SFR for sale right now), it's hard to find decent place at a decent price. Both areas goes to MM schools, so school are the same for both. Commute would be slightly better on the 92121 side to LJ and downtown, since it's closer to the freeway. The west end of 92121 will always be about ~3-5 degrees cooler than the east end of 92126 too.

Yep - what AN said.

I have coworkers that live there. But they've "choiced" their kids into a different high school.

It's a decent amount of house for the money. Same weather as Carmel Valley, but cheaper prices and less stellar schools.

We considered purchasing there - but factored in private school for our budgeting. If you don't have kids and /or don't plan to sell in the future, the school issue is a non-issue.

You get what you paid for, if you have kids and want the best school you can find, then CV is definitely better and you'll pay for it. But if you want to put up w/ the hassle, you can always do inter/intra-district transfer. I don't get why it would matter if you have to sell in the future, since you bought a house in 92121 for cheaper, you can't expect to sell it for the same as a house in 92130.

I lived there for a while. Everything that AN says is correct. Few other negatives that I would add are

(1) Even the basic shopping like groceries can be too far. You have to drive. (But now they opened a small grocery store on Camino Santa Fe.)

(2) People drive really fast on calle Cristobal and Sorrento Valley rd. (small annoyance)

(3) Carefully choose your street. Some rented houses are full of partying college students.

Good stuff on the comments.

The school question is the big delta. We don't have kids but understand that school districts have real impact on house prices.

It seems like Carmel Valley has a golden halo on the school front...

I always thought school district is non-issue as far as selling the house. Because if the school district is not good, you get to buy the house for cheap also.

This can only be an issue if schools that had good reputation when you bought, suddenly became worse when you sold.

Thus if you don't have kids to send to school, it might be actually better to buy in not so good school district. You pay less and hold a lottery ticket if somehow the schools change for better in future.

If you buy in a good school district (but not use its schools), you are in exactly opposite situation.

In the Calle Cristobal area, drive the streets of interest both during the day and at nite. You'll see several houses with 4 or more cars parked out front. Lots of shared rental houses in that area.

I'll agree with this.

And as I mentioned - if you do have schools you have options - you can apply to magnet schools or charter schools in SDUSD. You can also try to "choice" into better schools. I have friends in Kensington that have done this successfully. And as I mentioned above, my coworkers did this.

Everyone is different, but I wouldnt buy anything that was close to Sorrento Valley Blvd/Calle Cristobal. I have been in two differnt houses that border the road, and both have alot of road noise in the back yard. Most of the houses that are for sale in 92121 but-up-against that road. Where else can you drive 50mph legally 20 feet from houses, especially 700k houses?

Most of the people who live in the area work in the Sorrento Valley area, or very near by (carmel valley/La Jolla/pill hill.

Everyone pretty much captured it well. I lived on Cheryl Ridge, north of Calle Cristobal and paid in the rental range that AN mentioned. The home was decent and we were in a cul de sac. Of the 9 homes (I think) in the cul de sac, one of them was a rental with 4 cars in front of it. No problems to speak of. Calle Cristobal is noisy and there are usually a few accidents a year from people racing on it. However we didnt have a problem with the noise where we lived and I am really sensitive to noise in a big way. The quality of the homes are okay, not great, not crappy, at least the newer ones built after 1990. Yes the school district is the issue most people have. Overall it is not a bad area IMO. Of course some people here will badmouth it and others will not. We used to go to the park at the end of Camino Ruiz ALOT as it is a nice family park. When I worked in the tech center it was awesome driving to work in 5 minutes as well. I know the area there very well, almost as good as AN so if you do have questions just post em and I will be glad to try to answer them.

1st, thanks for all your comments. I appreciate the insight. I do have a couple more questions

1) Is there a sense of community? It seems like a really isolated spot (which I kind of like)
2) Is it good value for money given what's been said? I am leaning towards the 92121 now but would target a smaller house (2000-2200, not 2800+ SF)
3) Is there good access to the RP canyon? I would guess so I usually start from the trailhead
4) Is Torrey Hills/Bluffs different / better? i.e. Would you consider it as well?

The sense of community will be dependent on the street you live in, your neighbors, and how active you are in talking w/ your neighbor. But MM as a whole, there are events throughout the year. It is an isolated area, so you can be left alone if you wanted to.
I don't think 92121 is as good of a value as 92126 for the same house, since they rented for about the same, go to the same school, have similar HOA, etc. Especially if you're looking for the 2000-2200 sq-ft range. I think access to PQ canyon is better on the 92121 side.

I have always wondered if there is a school district bubble.

Maybe some Pigg w/ time on their hands will plot prices in CV vs. prices of similar houses in the nicer parts of MM to see if the difference in price per sq. ft changed during the bubble years and if that has popped.

On the cul de sac we lived on it was kind of a 50/50 sense of community. Our immediate neighbors on one side very much kept to themselves but the two homes at the end of the cul de sac had two block party bbqs during the time we were there.

Good value for the money is probably the most subjective term I hear... That is because it is 100% dependent on when you buy. Is it good value right now? Well yes compared to 2004 but no compared to 2000 and not as good a value as it was 6 months ago. Is it less expensive then similar sized homes in say 4S Ranch? Yes. However what monetary value do you assign to the schools at 4S as opposed to the SD Unified.

Those of course are rhetorical questions but it is hard to answer your question.

Yes there is good access to the canyon. Depends on which canyon, (lopez to the south and pq to the north) and it is very nice to ride or walk down there.

Torrey Hills/Bluffs is very much different then here. Is it better? Well the homes are newer but are they worth the additional price including the HOA and Mello Roos? My personal answer is no I don't think so BUT that is NOT BASED ON ANYTHING BUT MY PERSONAL taste. Would I consider Torrey Hills/Bluffs? Yes.. it is a really nice spot. Our man FLU can give you the skinny on that area.

It is a tough call. It really depends on your budget, where you work, how you feel about Mello Roos and such, yard size, and other factors. Don't rush into anything, take your time, look at lots of different stuff. Make sure you study the comps and such. Right now we are still in the rally which hopefully will slow as we head into winter.

How successful is using the "choice" option for kids and schools? What is the criteria they use? Is it more common that you can or do they tell you that you have to go to the neighborhood school?

I live in a condo on Calle Cristobal. The 92121 side seems to keep their yards nicer. The 92126 side has some nice yards, but more people who don't upkeep them as well (maybe because they are cheaper). I personally like Mira Mesa's multi-ethnic aspect (lots of people from Vietnam, Philippines, India, etc.). I think the other areas being mentioned are probably less diverse.

3) Is there good access to the RP canyon? I would guess so I usually start from the trailhead

The 'proper' accesses are located at the east and west end of Calle Cristobal. The west end is located at the south side of Calle Cristobal at the bottom of the hill (large parking lot with a gate). The east end is supposedly at the park located at the north end of Camino Ruiz (intersection Camino Ruiz and Calle Cristobal). I have not checked the access from the park yet. It is possible to mountain bike from the west access, heading to the east - all the way to 15 and past by a bit.

I have two friends who've done it successfully in San Diego Unified and I'm familiar with what they did. The info is available on the sandi.net website.

You pick your "choice" schools... Keep in mind EVERYONE is picking the la jolla ones... so your odds are worse.

My one friend lives in Kensington. She selected a magnet to apply for, a choice to apply for, and a charter to apply for. The choice school was Benchley/Weinberger. They got in. There is nothing saying you can't apply to a different school in more than one way... I'm pretty sure the magnet she applied to was Spreckels. I forget which charter she applied to.

The other friend (her sister) was in the Kate Sessions area - but really wanted her daughter to go to Birdrock. They figured it wasn't the end of the world if they didn't make it - and only put in that one choice application (no magnet/charter apps). They got in.

I know people who choiced their kids OUT OF DISTRICT into La Jolla High School. I don't know the full process of how they succeeded - but it involved a lot of friends who lived in La Jolla writing letters to support the application.

The process is on the website here:
http://www.sandi.net/20451072011450793/s...

Oh - and to answer your other questions.

- The odds of choicing in are based on space/availability and, I think, order of application. So if you apply to a very popular school (like LJHS) your odds are worse than if you apply to a less popular, but still decent school (pt loma high school for example).

- The charter schools seem to be semi-easy to get in. I have friends sending their kids to Muir and they said it was easy...

I'm not sure - but my friend may have applied to Benchley both as choice and as magnet. I know she got in under the "choice" avenue.

It's an odds game - if you apply to more than one school, you have better odds. My kids go to Curie - and a LOT of their classmates live outside of the neighborhood. Fine by me - shows they have active/involved parents who took the time to work the system.

Point Loma High is a decent school? I don't have personal experience with PLH but their API scores is pretty low. Based on API scores, SRHS, MMHS, and UCHS are all better. Am I missing something?