San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Three words: look out below!

Three words: look out below!

LOL.. don't drink the kool-aid at that open house!

There seem to be more down the street for even lesser money (slightly smaller square footage ~3300) ...

8x4 Antilla Way : $775-850k.

Lots of new houses (3000+sq ft) coming up for less money ~700-750k

8x4 Antilla is on the non-view side of the street so it's an apples-to-oranges comparison. Incidentally, this guy has been on and off the market since November after buying in October for $743k.

More great news from San Elijo!

I went to the sales office for the new home community below this week. They are offering 4-2-1 financing (6.7% or so fixed 30 year, they pay 4% the first year, 2% the second year, then you pay the 6.7% rate...). Also, they said to 'make a reasonable offer.' What is reasonable? They pointed to a 850k house and said 800 might be. I'm thinking 750 would be too because a friend in the new home business told me that 100k off is reasonable right now. No plans to buy for me though. But look at the sizes of these homes:

Atherton
Richmond American
Single Family Homes
3,399-4,171 Sq. ft.
Priced from the low $800,000s

Jim,
Wow ! People listing 1 month after purchase, this shows the insanity of this whole ponzi scheme. Glad it is finally starting to unravel.

JES,
I also visited RA homes in their lower end neighborhood (Luminara not Atherton) and same buy down schemes being offered with list prices starting 60k below their website price !

SEJ Hills about to pop I truly believe. I am on business for a few days in San Francisco. Pulte homes in SF are running TV ADS offering $99,000 incentives and reductions.Flooring including.The Ads are on the radio also
There are a lot of short sales being advertised here.
Mariners landing, Atherton will soon be lowering list prices.
Does any one know about Short sales, what to look out for??

San Elijo Hills is definitely a bad market right now. Resale houses in newer tracts, where the builder still has inventory to sell next year, are going to get hammered vs. established areas without new housing available.

Okay. It looks like the noose is finally beginning to tighten. I read Steve Beebo's comment about San Elijo Hills market being bad, to be closely related to the "it's different here" comments I've read from all over the country the last six-months or so.

We all know it is not different here and once we (the Beebos of the world) begin to point out that "yes, maybe that neighborhood across the street will go down, but mine is special...everyone wants to live in Del Mar or Lakeside, etc." we have reached a critical milestone...the proverbial "chicken" has come home to roost locally!!! It's about f**king time, too!! The bubble is officially beginning to burst here in San Diego.

Beebo...your house is going down, bro, and there ain't nuthin' you can do about it. Pre 2003 prices, bro. It's going down clown.

lending bubble - Are you suggesting all zip codes will depreciate by exactly the same amount?

dude...no...I am attempting to assist sdrealtor in getting Beebo to pull his "head out of the sand" (from the Median Officially 7% off the peak forum topic) as it seems he wants to believe that San Elijo Hills is in trouble but other places without new inventory will be fine. I sense that he feels a bit too secure with his presumed cozy equity gains during this bull run and I'm sharing my opinion that his home, likely in one of those older established areas, is going to get dinged very hard like most everybody else's will.

Certainly there will be differences in depreciation across all zip codes. We all know that.

I thought his comment was interesting.

Just a suggestion - if you want to hammer someone, don't hammer a decent post, just because you don't like some of their prior posts. It devalues your own posts.

Sorry,

I always feel like the guy is trolling and a bit insincere about where this market is headed. Whatever.

Truth be told, I rarely post because there is no point to it. Why do any of us post? Screw it. Every now and again I see something to call bullshit on and I post. End of discussion.

Does anyone have an MLS number for the property? If I can confirm the details I'll post this on my blog.

http://sandiegomarketmonitor.blogspot.com/

Mr. B,

066078490

I think you read way too much into Steve's comment. He was specifically talking about the impact of increased competition among resales in a subdivision that is still under construction. I thought the comment was both accurate and very supportable with the data.

He did not suggest that there would be neighborhoods that are immune or insulated from a collapsing price structure.

Steve and I disagree as to the extent of the market correction but we don't disagree that all the segments of the housing market here are ultimately connected and that all will be affected to one degree or another by widespread price corrections.

Bugs-

I'm sure you are right about me reading way too much into his comments. Back to lurking...

Lendlingbubbleco:

Did you really use the phrase "It's going down clown"? Nobody has ever said that phrase to me before. In fact, I don't know if anyone in the history of the world has ever said that exact phrase. But - no offense taken.

I do sometimes like to play the devil's advocate, because even though the market in San Diego is not very good, and is likely to get worse, I don't see a future freefall of prices to the tune of 40/50/60%.

The median price of an SFR is now $555,000, unchanged from 12 months ago. I'll agree that there are more concessions this year on resales, but not much more than 2% average, if that. If the median drops 10%, to 500K, I think that more buyers will jump in. If it drops to 475K, a 15% drop, even more buyers will show up, as long as the job market stays OK.

Of course, my house can NEVER drop 15%. And I did sell two investment properties in the last two years, so that proves I'm not a complete idiot.

Steve Beebo- Maybe other people who've been around here longer than I have understand why you think your house won't drop, but I don't. Why is it that your house can never drop?

I'm not even trying to be a trouble maker. Rather, I'd like to use your thoughts to my advantage.

SDCellar,
he was kidding

Not necessarily. If he has paid it off, it will NEVER drop 15% in value, because he would never sell it for less. You only take the hit if you actually sell.

Josh

I was actually paraphrasing Happy Gilmore while he was miniature golfing. He said: "You're going down, clown."

So, no...it's not original...the scene was freakin' hilarious, though.

Median shmedian, anyway...what is important is that the schadenfreude can commence at once...Steve- I hope your house goes straight up one hundred trillion bazillion percent...what I'm looking forward to is all the formerly smug sh*thead genius "investors" from the last four years, eating steaming piles of their own feces.

sdr and Steve Beebo-- I need my winky smiley!

There's been another serious blink in SEH. This one is at 8*5 Hollowbrook.

This home was originally purchased in May 2005 for $800k by what appears to be an absentee owner/investor. I first noted this house in early summer when the asking price was $750-850k. That was later reduced to a flat $750k. It has now been reduced to a range of $675-750k. The comments note it is a short sale subject to lender approval.

My question for the pros out there. Would the lender (in this case Countrywide for both a first and second TD) have already agreed to the low end of this range as a selling price?

Also of note, the next-door neighbor with an inferior lot is also selling with an asking price of $910k.

Great information, North County Jim. Thanks for keeping us updated on SEH.

I have a feeling that after that house sells, some of the neighbors will be blinking too. ;)

The house closed two weeks ago for $915k. Included in that number is a $35k credit to the buyer for closing costs and "loan organization". So the effective selling price was $880k.

With a purchase price of $932k and at least $75k into it (we viewed the home, the backyard had some serious work done), the loss on this place was at least $175k. At least in this case, the seller could absorb it.

As for the buyer, 29 years old with a first and a second TD and an annual tax liability of $15k. The insanity continues.

The 29 year old probably thinks living it that house makes him look like he's somebody.

Wait until we have a real recession, either mostly local or nationwide or worldwide. Why do people think economic cycles have been banished?

I bought a house with another investor in 2002, and I noticed that the price of the house in Euros never went up. Even when I sold for a profit in dollars, the Euro price was the same.

This shows the price gains in real estate in San Diego are partly an illusion.

I'm not quite following you. I was going to post this chart , but the piggington server kept timing out in when I selected "add image". (By the way, I get the timing out message frequently and a snail's pace web page loading on every piggington page, does anyone else?) The second graph shows the dollar vs the euro since 1999.

gold, when did you sell the house? Are you saying that houses were more expensive only because the dollar is devalued?

Just resurrecting old posts -

Today's market for homes on Antilla - http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080073755-87...

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080078889-82...

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-87C9DE0...

Antilla homes have dropped from 2005 at about mid 800s or more to mid 5's.. Thats totally nuts and whats even nuttier - it could drop further.