September Foreclosures

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2007 - 11:40am

The rate of NODs and NOTs declined in September from a month prior, but both numbers remain well above their levels of a year ago and for that matter anything we saw during the 1990s.

Labor Day week saw an abrupt drop in foreclosure activity, but the pace resumed and even increased over the following weeks. In other words, this month-to-month decline looks more like noise than the beginning of a trend.

The one-week spike downward can be seen in the weekly chart below (current through 10/8), as can the spike back up after Labor Day week fell out of the 4-week rolling average period:

It looks like we may be on pace to set a new record for NOTs and NODs in October. Of course, the price pressure from these properties doesn't tend to come until they convert to REOs, which are certain to rise in the coming months due to all the foreclosures in the pipeline.

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Numbers only declined
Submitted by no_such_reality on October 12, 2007 - 3:58pm.

Numbers only declined because September had 19 working days compared to 23 in August and the coming 22 in October.

On a per day basis, trustee deeds increased 3% over August.

Am I reading this wrong, or
Submitted by JimAtLaw on October 15, 2007 - 5:46pm.

Am I reading this wrong, or did nearly one 1 of 666 (at 0.15%) working adults in San Diego get a notice of default in September? In that month alone?! At a yearly rate if this continues, without even continuing to accelerate, this would be 1 in 55!

And does this count two-income couples as both two working adults and two NODs? If not, and it's counting both people as working adults but only one NOD, you may actually have a much higher proportion-of-people-defaulting number if you properly counted a two-income couple as both two incomes and two defaults! Wow.