September 2010 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 10, 2010 - 8:04pm
Now that I have a version of Excel that allows a greatly expanded color selection, I took the opportunity to update the graphs to match the site's muted theme.  (I'm using a loose definition of "now"... I figure there is wiggle room to the effect of a year or so... but let's not quibble about the details).

What's that you say?  You're interested in the actual data, and don't want to read a discussion about color schemes?

Well.  It takes all kinds, I guess.

Price-wise, the data didn't have anything too exciting to offer:



The median price per square foot was down a hefty 5.2% for condos, which are always volatile.  It was up by 1.3% for detached homes, however. 

Because of the larger sample size and lower volatility, I consider detached homes the better bellweather.  But even here, prices were lower than they were two months prior, and for that matter lower than they were for the entirety of the stimulus-goosed spring/summer rally earlier this year.  So while this price measure was up for a single month it could still potentially be trending down from frenetic springtime levels.

Here's the vanilla median:



The 3-month smoothing in the Case-Shiller proxy also implies a price downtrend:



Closed sales were down for the month, having gone down in a pretty straight line since June:



And pendings, have blipped up last month, dropped again to get back in line with the post-June trend:



Inventory was up again -- that has been straight up all year, though the rate of growth has tapered off lately.  We are nearly back at late-2008 levels at this point:



The drop in pendings and the rise in inventory bumped the months-of-inventory figure above the storied 6-month level.  This is the highest that months-of-inventory has gotten since 2008:



Readers may recall that six months of inventory is the level that has had a historical tendency to mark the line between upward and downward price pressure.  The somewhat unfavorable level of supply in comparison to demand, along with the weak price charts above, imply further price stagnation if not an outright decline in the months ahead.
(category: )

Submitted by urbanrealtor on October 11, 2010 - 8:34am.

Any chance you could post a graph of price and ppsf as a function of income since the peak?

PLLLLEEEEEEEEEEAAASE?????

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2010 - 8:52am.

Here is price (Case-Shiller, which correlates strongly to PPSF) as a function of income as of a few months ago:

http://piggington.com/shambling_further_...

Submitted by urbanrealtor on October 11, 2010 - 9:58am.

Rich Toscano wrote:
Here is price (Case-Shiller, which correlates strongly to PPSF) as a function of income as of a few months ago:

http://piggington.com/shambling_further_from_affordability

Yeah I know that one.
I was hoping for something with a bit tighter temporal focus.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2010 - 2:07pm.

If you tell me exactly what you want I will try to get to it. But fwiw, over the short term, changes in the price-to-income ratio are entirely driven by prices, which move much more wildly than incomes.

Submitted by urbanrealtor on October 11, 2010 - 3:29pm.

Rich Toscano wrote:
If you tell me exactly what you want I will try to get to it. But fwiw, over the short term, changes in the price-to-income ratio are entirely driven by prices, which move much more wildly than incomes.

Okay.
What I am looking for is a chart showing media pti but only since peak (or the last 5 years, whichever is easier), or even more recent past.

My curiosity is about the relevance of general economic downturn since 2005.

Just looking for more detail than the shambling graph shows.

While month-to-month, I see your point, i suspect that broader income shifts in the last 5 years show up somewhat.

I could be wrong...

Submitted by justinmac on October 15, 2010 - 3:49pm.

That's it Folks...I'm on the record here calling the end to this recession. Got the 6 month stock market precursor recovery run going on since last week imho. GLTA

Having said that-- here's a good article for the newbs (including meself) out there:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/16/your-m...

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 1, 2010 - 5:47pm.

For Dan:

house p/i since 06house p/i since 06

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.