San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
September 2010 Resale Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 10, 2010 - 8:04pm
Now that I have a version of Excel that allows a greatly expanded color selection, I took the opportunity to update the graphs to match the site's muted theme. (I'm using a loose definition of "now"... I figure there is wiggle room to the effect of a year or so... but let's not quibble about the details).
What's that you say? You're interested in the actual data, and don't want to read a discussion about color schemes?
Well. It takes all kinds, I guess.
Price-wise, the data didn't have anything too exciting to offer:
The median price per square foot was down a hefty 5.2% for condos, which are always volatile. It was up by 1.3% for detached homes, however.
Because of the larger sample size and lower volatility, I consider detached homes the better bellweather. But even here, prices were lower than they were two months prior, and for that matter lower than they were for the entirety of the stimulus-goosed spring/summer rally earlier this year. So while this price measure was up for a single month it could still potentially be trending down from frenetic springtime levels.
Here's the vanilla median:
The 3-month smoothing in the Case-Shiller proxy also implies a price downtrend:
Closed sales were down for the month, having gone down in a pretty straight line since June:
And pendings, have blipped up last month, dropped again to get back in line with the post-June trend:
Inventory was up again -- that has been straight up all year, though the rate of growth has tapered off lately. We are nearly back at late-2008 levels at this point:
The drop in pendings and the rise in inventory bumped the months-of-inventory figure above the storied 6-month level. This is the highest that months-of-inventory has gotten since 2008:
Readers may recall that six months of inventory is the level that has had a historical tendency to mark the line between upward and downward price pressure. The somewhat unfavorable level of supply in comparison to demand, along with the weak price charts above, imply further price stagnation if not an outright decline in the months ahead.
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