San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Sell.

Sell, if you can!

Hire me as a consultant. For 500 dollars I'll tell you what the last two just said, only I'll print my opinion out as a report and hand deliver it.
Josh

Thanks Josh for the offer. You've rightly pegged me as sufficiently insecure that I might actually pay for advice that others just gave me for free!

Thanks too for the two other votes. I don't follow the larger economic trends in SD closely enough to make an intelligent prediction about where the market will be in two years, so I certainly value your take!

If you don't love the place, or want to move up to an newer area then sell.

But, if you love your house and want to be there for 5 more years, then keep it.

If you anticipate a job change in 2 years that would either require relocation, or change your income such that you can't comfortably afford to stay in your home - I think you should sell. No one can say with certainty where real estate prices will be in 2 years, but it is hard to imagine that they will be tremendously higher than they are today. If you have a buyer "today", why risk selling later? It seems like there is way more potential downside than upside. Besides, renting will give you much more flexibility if your job change happens sooner than you expect.

Thanks PadreBrian and JustLurking.

We do have a buyer today-- I need to respond in the next few hours. Solid funding and everything.

Downside potential + increased flexibility is what I was thinking too. It's just hard because we DO love our house...

But life is full of hard choices and so forth...

Thanks again!

Fletch. Two years from now after you've sold, you'll look back on this as one of the smartest things you ever did!!
Get out of debt and into cash or highly liquid assets. A storm is brewing!

Sell! Sell! Sell!

Have you looked at the area(s) where you would need to rent yet? That might be a factor influencing your decision to sell. I lean more toward the buy and hold side of the equation, but I don't think we are at or even near the bottom. Selling now might be the best depending on the market conditions. I think the sellers see a looming crash in the economy(not just a deflating real estate bubble) and prices going even lower. Have you decided where you are going to park your money? That is also something to consider. Good luck.

Rental area or costs should be separate in the decision making process of holding a six figure depreciating asset. You can always rent smaller or in another area but don't let that influence your decision for holding vs. throwing a ticking financial bomb.

A quick update for the folks who were kind enough to share your thoughts...

We got three offers over the weekend, and accepted one that was over asking and have another as a back up. Financing is solid so hopefully it'll close on time.

When all is said and done, I'll be selling for about 17% less than what I bought for... I'll be walking away with enough to modestly jump start my savings, or more likely, buy a few hundred plastic bottles of Early Times bourbon.

I hope it closes fast for you!

Sell are you all crazy???? Keep your home!! It will go up for sure, maybe even by the end of 2008. Well at least that was what all the "quote unquote" economists said a few months ago. Now all of sudden our old friends in the media seem to paint a different picture.

If you can break even on a home in this market consider yourself a lucky person. As of Black Monday yesterday, I am quite sure that everyone now understands the certain gloom of our country's economy and housing market.

As of Black Monday yesterday, I am quite sure that everyone now understands the certain gloom of our country's economy and housing market.

What makes you quite certain? A flood of price reductions on Redfin? Perhaps an unrealistic belief that most people know or care about the wider economy? Oh wait I know! Ryan Seacrest came on during a break on American Idol and said, "we'll the economy has just gone to shit!" Must have been one of the episodes I missed.

Josh

The real reason I see for you to sell is that you do not plan to be in the house for anything more than a year or two. In that time it is doubtful you will get a cent more than yesterday, but rather possible you will get less.

I know you have already accepted an offer and all, but with our economy looking like it is gonna be hurting for a while, just reasses that new job possibility. If you realize that you are not going anywhere for a very long time (since you love your house) and are gonna keep your current job, then stay. If you are still planning on bailing out in a year or two, then sell and save that difference in rent for whereever you are going.
Best of luck to you.

How do you "break even" when you lose your original downpayment? That is not breaking even...you lost money on the house. If you put down 17%, but sell the house for 17% less and walk away with not having to put in any more money, you lost 17% of your equity. If you put down $0 as a downpayment and the house lost 17%, then you actually saved yourself 17% of the house price.

Jeeman

Jeeman-
You are absolutely right-- I should not have called it "breaking even". I will in fact be losing most my downpayment.