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Scruffy Dog post revisitedUser Forum Topic
Submitted by BuyerWillEPB on January 8, 2008 - 9:12pm
5-1-09: Once again, Rich's latest chart reminded me of ol' Scruffy dog's call to shut down this website. This makes me smile everytime. ------------------------------------------------------- Ok folks! With the release of Rich's December home prices chart it's a good time to revisit an old post. Also, it has been exactly 6 months since I cached this infamous post by Scruffy Dog and my response to it. As I promised, here it is. Be gentle and enjoy. :) Housing & economy doing great…shut down this site! User Forum Topic Unfortunately many of you missed out on the last real estate boom. Now you spend your time on this site hoping that real estate or the economy will crash so you can buy in. Sorry, not going to happen. Piggington now appears to have reverted to a religious / political debate site. Is it because you are now beginning to realize the real estate collapse will not happen and you have nothing else to write about? Real Estate Minimal RE downturn in CA is limited to areas where there was land to build new houses: ie San Diego, Sacramento, and Riverside county areas. Metro LA, Orange county is all built out – very little land left to build on. LA median is up ~ 6% yoy, average cost of home is up $50k. Also coastal property prices are setting new high price records weekly! Economy Almost any day of the week, any time of the day I have a difficult time finding parking spaces at stores or malls because there are so many people out spending money. I've noticed some stores can’t keep items stocked on their shelves fast enough because they are so busy (Target, Trader Joes). I let my Costco membership expire because the store is ALWAYS so crowded with shoppers I couldn’t deal with it. My Response: Oh dear God! Somebody Oh dear God! Somebody PLEASE cache this fools post. We absolutely MUST check back on this one in 6 months to a year from now. This is gonna be Classic!
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where is little Scruffydog now?
In the magical raindrop forest with LostCat, PussyWillow, and BunnyMeadows!
Reality does bite!
Awesome post.
I tell you one thing. This guy could qualify for a CEO position with: CountryFried (or any lender), Starbucks, any home builder, or HomeDepot... and if I may stretch......he could be in line to become the next FED chairman (replace Bernanke).
I Just couldn't resist dragging this one back from the past. :)
it is very hard to predict the future though. at the time, i remember thinking in 07 that well, maybe the bulls are right, maybe it will all double again. i suppose it could have with the right conditions. but it didn't. its easy to look back and laugh butit's difficult to knwo exactly when a bubble is too inflaeted, when it will burst and when th e madness will end (if in fact it does in your lifetime.). still, it's pretty funny.
So entertaining to see the post again! :))
The post did it’s job refocusing the site back to r/e and away from religious / political debate.
I just remember during the bubble up thinking we're in a bubble and it's gonna turn around soon. But it kept going and going like the EverReady Bunny Battery. And I was amazed at the stretch and length of the ascent up.
I think the cycle down will equally amaze the bulls on the descent down.
You are thinking of the Energizer Bunny.
What you mentioned is something you can order here.
http://www.goodvibes.com
Or so I have heard...
Sorry.
My posts are just getting progressively more juvenile.
Apparently, 34 is the regression age for me.
LOL. Thanks for the correction.
The point was I kept thinking we reached peak and it kept going up. Now the bulls keep calling bottom yet the decline continues.
i have no real estate expertise, and maybe this sign is meaningless, but when i look around redfin and continue to see loads of substantial bimonthly reductions on lots of house prices, it doesn't seem like as a matter of common sense the bottom is in.
The post did it’s job refocusing the site back to r/e and away from religious / political debate.
Oh, ok... so the spin job you're trying to sell us now on your wildly, totally, completely incorrect post of years back is that it wasn't about the prediction, per se, but rather it was about "refocusing the site back" to real estate?
Please.
You completely missed the boat. Totally. Forget the ballpark, you weren't even on the same planet as being correct.
The only good news for you is that this doesn't disqualify you for a job at Treasury, the Fed or the White House.
The post did it’s job refocusing the site back to r/e and away from religious / political debate.
Oh, ok... so the spin job you're trying to sell us now on your wildly, totally, completely incorrect post of years back is that it wasn't about the prediction, per se, but rather it was about "refocusing the site back" to real estate?
Please.
You completely missed the boat. Totally. Forget the ballpark, you weren't even on the same planet as being correct.
The only good news for you is that this doesn't disqualify you for a job at Treasury, the Fed or the White House.
Dave: Scruffy's response also indicates that he's been lurking this entire time and watching this slow motion train wreck with the rest of us. Scruffy hasn't been posting, but instead has been laying low and watching his "prescient" posting get shredded by events.
What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".
His post was a howler when it was originally posted and it's only gotten funnier.
What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".
Sometimes... I dare to dream... only to have such dreams dashed on the rocky shores of reality.
What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".
Sometimes... I dare to dream... only to have such dreams dashed on the rocky shores of reality.
Dave: If we forced all the idiots to wear signs, what fun would that be? Think of all the endless frustration, anger and pisstivity that you would miss! No more pointless arguments, headaches from trying to get the completely obtuse to understand simple logic, or the near state of grace you encounter when confronting the totally mendacious, only to realize that they have no sense of self awareness at all.
C'mon, Dave, what would do with all that spare time?
What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".
Sometimes... I dare to dream... only to have such dreams dashed on the rocky shores of reality.
Dave: If we forced all the idiots to wear signs, what fun would that be? Think of all the endless frustration, anger and pisstivity that you would miss! No more pointless arguments, headaches from trying to get the completely obtuse to understand simple logic, or the near state of grace you encounter when confronting the totally mendacious, only to realize that they have no sense of self awareness at all.
C'mon, Dave, what would do with all that spare time?
Well, I can't argue with that. The entertainment value is pretty high.
Come on people, it's just a wind up.
I truly have nothing against scruffy dog personally. Really.
I think it's the way this post demonstrates the pervasiveness of the housing boom that makes me remember it. The way the housing boom was so "Sure thing" and the way us Piggington's were so "crazy" is why I bring this back from the past.
I think the cycle down will equally amaze the bulls on the descent down.
Agree 100%. It would be interesting to see how people's perspectives would change if the downturn were to go in waves for 10 or more years.
Not saying that it's going to happen, just saying that it might...and the reaction would be interesting to observe.