San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Hi saneesing... I live in Scripps and need to run off to work. Will respond later today or tonite.

SD Realtor

I'll give my less bearish view than most here. I think that house should be 450K...I think we have another 20% to go.

Put your flak jacket on tomorrow, though...it's going to be a wild ride.

Stan

I am going to roughly guess that these homes were going for about $450k in 2003, and $325k in 2000.

So, it depends, I guess, on how far you think that prices will fall, and regress to what year.

I personally would consider buying around the end of 2009 (possibly later, but not before).

I'm looking at pretty much the same thing in Scripps. I'd like the prices to fall back down to the 300s, but just because I want it to doesn't mean it will. I think that area's downturn will be on the later side, probably seeing some real adjustments in 2009. But of course, it's just too early to speculate. Who knows what new scheme will drag this out?

As far as a fair price - I'd say upper 300s for that. Too bad life isn't fair.

I have commented on this before and will do it again. If you are looking for a price point that fits your budget, then picking a number and looking for it, is the way to go.

Make no mistake though, the price at which we bottom out (anywhere including my home base of Scripps) will have nothing to do with my budget, or any of your budgets. It will not have to do with 2001, 2002, or 1999. It will have to do with indicators such as volume, such as foreclosures, such as interest rates, active/pending ratios, etc...These indicators will tell you where we are in the depreciation cycle. The median price of the home you want at the time when those indicators are signaling that the depreciation cycle is slowing down may or may not have reached your personal threshold. You guys see what I am saying? These other metrics will help you make sure you didn't go in to early and that maybe you don't miss the bottom either.

Now the only thing that I worry about is a false bottom. That is, in 2009,2010, or 2011 we MAY indeed see alot of these indicators signal a significant move such that the depreciation cycle may appear to be ending. However the second wave of resets for prime properties or something of that nature may then come in and who knows, maybe we have another shot downward after a year or two of calm. This may be paranoia on my part. I don't know.... I just cringe every time I read people saying things like, "what price point do you think is the bottom, or where would you buy at?"

Finally, this afternoon I saw a black car driving up I15 with a license plate that said sd bear!

bear was that you?

Ha! No that wasn't me, I'm much too cheap to buy a personalized plate. Though I would like to know who is driving around town impersonating me...

Yeah I thought it was kind of funny as I chugged along in the old Murano.

SD Realtor

Thanks SD Realtor and others for your replies. SD Realtor, although I didn't like your response at first blush - I was looking for a simple hard number - it definitely makes sense. Home prices in 2001 or 2003 don't tell us much about the future prices.
But, for argument sake, even if we used the past prices as a reference, don't we have to throw inflation into the mix to figure what the future home prices ought to be? For eg, if we wanted to consider 2001 prices as reasonable(325k, as someone pointed out), don't we have adjust it upwards by the amount of inflation (that would make it worth around 400k now)?
Another related question - are Rancho Bernardo and Rancho Penasquitos ahead of Scripps Ranch in terms of price decline? Do people consider RB and RP as reasonable alternatives to Scripps Ranch?
Thanks once again everyone!

don't we have to throw inflation into the mix to figure what the future home prices ought to be? For eg, if we wanted to consider 2001 prices as reasonable(325k, as someone pointed out), don't we have adjust it upwards by the amount of inflation (that would make it worth around 400k now)?

I would say that you do have to consider inflation, but it will not necessarily push home prices upwards. You have to consider it in relationship to household incomes. If incomes rise at a slower pace than inflation, then fewer families can afford the high priced homes. After paying for the necessities that have all been going through the roof (like health insurance, food, gas, utilities), people actually have less money to spend on housing. This should have the effect of pushing housing prices down.

noone your response makes alot of sense.

sanseeing, I know my answer was not pretty but it is the one that I personally would love to be able to live by. Unfortunately it is highly unlikely that I will be able to due to family needs but IF I had unlimited time then that is the strategy I would apply.

So your question about using past prices as a reference and factoring inflation into the mix makes alot of sense. However as noone pointed out, higher inflation also means less to spend on housing as well correct? I don't know...if you analyze it to much, you start chasing your tail and you go nowhere. I have seen some posters do something like take 2001 prices and apply a 3% appreciation rate and that may be considered reasonable. Again, hard to say what works.

In the end, for me, all I can do is make sure I buy what I can afford and will hopefully not have regrets if/when the market goes down after I buy. If I can hold off until sometime into 09 that will be better then 08 but by no means will it be the bottom.

As far as RP/RB as reasonable alternatives to Scripps... well that is in the eye of the beholder yeah? Lots of people think so. I have no problems at all with either of them but personally I like Scripps a bit better. RB/RP get the Poway school district so the nod goes to them for that category. It really is personal taste. I lived in RP for awhile and had no problems with it at all. I have lots of friends that live in both places and like them.

As for measuring the depreciation of each neighborhood to compare to each other. If I didn't alot other work to do I would do that and post tonite... However I am gonna procrastinate by reading a few more posts, run some simulations for my other job, do some more real estate work, then go to sleep. If you want shoot me some email and I will do it in the next few days. adam [at] 1800grrealty [dot] com

SD Realtor

Reasonable price for me for 1700-1800 3bdrm in SR would be about 39,000,000 Yen.

(I'm starting to quote in a real currency whose conversion rate to USD can be fairly obtained by simply moving the decimal point a few positions left or right depending on which way you want to do the conversion)

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!