San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Scripps has been very tough because it did experience depreciation but not nearly as much as other areas. I think it did provide a stark example of the old money verses new money differential in play. By far the biggest drops were out in stonebridge which represents new homes in scripps. This is not to say old homes didn't depreciate but on a percentage scale not nearly as much.

Right now scripps is showing very poor inventory and strong demand. You will most likely experience depreciation but to me it is not any different then any other nice area. Don't get in over your head.

Do you get jet noise from the marine base in scripps ranch?

We do get some noise from the Marine base. The only time it's really something noticable is during the annual airshow and we sometimes get a low flying jet or helicopter. Given our proximity to the base, it would seem that it would be more than it is.

Overall, it's pretty quiet around here during the day.

What size and price are you looking for, Strawberryfields?

Do you folks think there's much chance of a 3 or 4 bedroom single family detached home in Scripps Ranch dropping to median price of below $250/sq-ft within 2 years? According to Redfin, current median is $280/sq-ft.

Looking for something under 3000 sq ft, priced under $750k.

I have to believe that prices will come down to at least the $250/sq-ft range. How can a "starter home" be $500k? So that's where my original question comes in - when, what and where? Did we already see the big dip and now it will be a long slow ride down? The market in this neighborhood has gone crazy again. It seems that there are plenty of people who believe that there are real deals to be had - and they're buying. I'm not seeing the "deals" for the most part but maybe I've gotten unrealistic...

Straw the deals will come but you need a catalyst. Without a substantial catalyst there will be no deals. Hope for either a substantial rise in inventory due to reo properties. Hope for another increase in unemployment for several more consecutive months. Hope for a drastic change in interest rates. I think you will need to see them at least crack the 6% mark for anything to start to get pulled down drastically in Scripps.

Your best bet will be the reo increase. Anyways as long as Obama gets the heck out of the housing market then you should see your target in another year or two as long as one of the catalysts mentioned occurs. Prior to that you may see some onesy twosy stuff happen, maybe in Stonebridge.

I was just wondering how you interpret the fact that the inventory has dropped drastically in the last month or so without a significant drop of the prices. I am checking www.sdlookup.com frequently and have been noticing a lot of sales. I agree with you that employment data will deteriorate further for at least a few more months before bottoming. Obama will not be able to turn things around as quickly despite huge efforts.

I do believe Scripps Ranch is still priced pretty high. I have watched the area for 2-3 years. That being said, we did just purchase a brand new home in Stonebridge for under $200.00 a sq. ft. The value for an existing Scripps Ranch home compared to the new Stonebridge home was a factor in our decision. Buy a home to live in, enjoy, raise a family, etc. "but in the long run it may be okay given the lot size, home layout, etc."

SD Realtor and Localguy, you guys seem to like Stonebridge. Why is Stonebridge cheaper than old Scripps? how do you think about the School District? Some people say that the school district of Stonebridge may be reclassified from Poway to SD District. Do you know more about this? Is this a major factor for why Stonebridge is relatively cheaper than old Scripps? I just want to know more about Stonebridge. thanks.

A big reaon Stonebridge is cheaper is because the houses are MUCH bigger. Price/sq ft drop drastically as homes get larger because most of a home is fixed costs. Bigger home is more sq ft to amortize those fixed costs over. Also, those Stonebridge homes are new so there is likely a 6 figure expense coming for landscaping, paint, window treatments, appliances etc.

Also not mentioned are the HOA & MR for Stonebridge is close to $600 a month on top of your mortgage. That's a big disadvantage vs. old Scripps.

The HOA & MR are no doubt a huge cost. Regarding the school district, the MR's are tied into the Poway school district. A couple factors driving our decision were the Catholic school 2 blocks away that we will be using, a huge view lot, large living spaces, being off the main road, a lot of open space around us, distance from the neighbors, and having a brand new home to set up as we like. For us, Stonebridge works. There is a lot of denial out here, one couple in the hood said "you know this is a million dollar neighborhood". I didn't have the heart to burst his bubble that myself and others didn't pay a million. I must have missed that memo!

Which development do you live in? Most of the new homes are selling now for at least $900k.

I think it purely depends on your priorities.

for the price localguy got his house, he got a near 5,000 sqft home with a huge usable lot with Poway schools.

but for others, they would rather buy a near 3,000 sqft home with minimal lot in Carmel Valley for that same exact price.

for some folks that 2,000 sqft difference and the "reach out and touch my neighbor coziness" is well worth it just to have that Carmel Valley address.

But for guys like localguy, driving 25 minutes to the beach is ok if it means 2,000 sqft of additional space along with a huge flat yard with a view.

whatever floats your boat.

Is Stonebridge in a fire zone area? Did the Cedar wildfire in 2003 come anywhere close to it? If yes, that can be a hinder as well.

You can add the fact that most of the homes in Stonebridge were sold during the peak years. This is why Stonebridge will show more signs of distress then old Scripps Ranch.

recordsclerk nailed it. Plain and simple, Stonebridge is a perfect example of new money verses old money and the fact is that on a percentage basis, the distress level in the entire Stonebridge subdivision is much higher then anywhere in Scripps.

sdr also pegged it right on the ppsf discussion. Of course stonebridge offers the best ppsf in scripps because of the size of the homes.

As for Scripps itself I like it alot but no more then I would like other places like Encinitas, some parts of Poway, and other places in the county. Like it or not Scripps is a very tough place to get in and out of. My personal preference is not really for a new home but I would take Stonebridge in a heartbeat over 4S or CV because of the larger lot sizes.

With respect to being in a fire zone I would say welcome to Southern California which is pretty much all chapparal, desert, and coastline with lots of suburban sprawl in between. Pretty much most of the county is a firezone. I would live in Elfin Forest if I could afford it and that is a fire zone as well.

Anyways for my money Scripps is still well overpriced just like most of the more desireable areas. I don't think the unemployment picture is going to bring the house down like some have predicted. I am getting more cynical/skeptical about the depreciation cycle and am starting to wonder about things. Again, my best hope lies in foreclosures hitting the market.

As an engineer though, relying on hope is usually not a winning ticket.

I agree with the others on this thread - Scripps still has a ways to fall. I think ppsf average of 250/sq ft is very likely in SR.

However, remember that Scripps Ranch is not "starter home" territory. It is an upscale community. You find typical "starter homes" in places like Mira Mesa, Linda Vista, and the counties (East, North, and South).

I'd be willing to bet that the vast majority of Scripps owners are on at least their second house (barring the condos/townhomes).

Like SDEngineer said, Scripps is not a starter home area. However, I'm a little confused by your requirement? You said you're looking for something under 3000 sq-ft and priced under $750k. Isn't there plenty of 2000 sq-ft for under $750k? Unless you mean around 3000 sq-ft for under $750k. If you want a 3000 sq-ft house for under $750k right now, there are a few options that's closed to what you're looking for. Such as these:
House 1
House 2
House 3
House 4
House 5

Thank you for all the responses.

The comments about SR not being a starter home neighborhood are what make me think I've become unrealistic in what to expect from the downturn. Ten years ago, it was possible to find a starter home here with prices in several developments under $300k. It seems that the consensus is that we won't see prices go anywhere near that again.

As for the houses listed above, I know where they are and the first three either face or are alongside busy streets. The other two are out of our range.

Seems like we'd need a heck of a lot of foreclosures to make much of a dent in these prices!

"Ten years ago, it was possible to find a starter home here with prices in several developments under $300k."

Can you show an example of a 3000 sq ft home that sold for under $300K in Scripps Ranch in 1999?

Yikes - I didn't mean 3000 sq ft homes selling for that. I meant starter homes - older homes on streets like Tribuna, Ironwood, etc.; smaller but newer homes along Scripps Trl and the streets that move off it - La Vita, Rue Des Amis, Weatherwood, etc.

A 3000 sq ft house is a "starter home"?

you can easily find a "starter home" in scripps ranch in 1999 for under 300k. For example:

11368 Red Cedar Way, detached SFH, 3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,384 sq ft, sold on 01/22/1999 for $194,000. A little small, but it's good for a starter. That's just from 10 minutes of zillow browsing. I'm sure you can find many larger houses for under 300k in 1999.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/charts...

This one is on the market right now:
11959 Handrich
5 beds, 3.5 baths, 3,217 sq ft, Sold on 12/01/1999 for $300,000! Now it's listed for $799k.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11959...

This home's value went up 2.6 times in just under 10 years. How can this price be sustainable, when people's income did not go up 2.6 times in the last 10 years (even adjusting for inflation)? Shouldn't the value of a home track local income? Based on the numbers, I think Scripps Ranch has a lot to fall still.

Here's the Scripps Ranch $300K 'starter home' of 1999: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080051698-11...

It's 10 years later and now priced at $549K. That's about a 6% annual appreciation rate. You'll want at least that appreciation rate (probably more) when you sell the place 10 years from now.

With some good negotiating skills and a little patience, you may get the price down to low $500Ks.

11959 Handrich was destroyed in the 2003 fires. Here's what the property looked like after the fire:
http://www.scrippsranch.org/special/Fire...

Here's the complete list of destroyed homes:
http://www.scrippsranch.org/ProjectPhoen...

If you would just read the description of the 2nd house, you'd understand why they're expecting $799k. It's a newly rebuilt home, probably got burn down in the last fire that swept through Scripps. Although I don't think it's worth $799k, it's not an apple-to-apple comparison. What was the size of that house in 1999? The original house was built in 1976, so in '99, it was a 23 years old house.

Regarding the first house, that's a 1300 sq-ft house. A 1300 sq-ft house in MM in 1999 was around $140k. So, $194k would be ~40% premium. A 1300 sq-ft house in MM today is ~$350k today, 40% premium would put it ~$490k today. Which those houses are going for today.

Yikes! That makes sense why the price went up so much, since it's a "new" construction. Well, I was just doing some casual searches, and Redfin has it listed for sale with historic prices. Interestingly though, Redfin says the house was built in 1976. I didn't read through it to realize it was a rebuilt.

DataAgent's got some mad web data mining skills :p

"DataAgent's got some mad web data mining skills :p"

Thanks. We almost bought a house near 11959 Handrich back in late 2007. I negotiated a great deal but the wife wouldn't go for it. She wanted to live closer to Mission Bay and PB. So we bought a totally remodeled place in Bay Ho (Clairemont). She's right... we really enjoy coastal San Diego. It's cooler in the summer and the bars are much closer!

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Does this seem almost reasonable? Or still overpriced?

10037 Avenida Magnifica
Old Scripps Ranch
$589,000 ($316/sf)
Year 1973
1,866 sf, 8300sf lot
4 bedroom 2 bath
no mello-roo/hoa

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090028261-10...