Scripps and Mira Mesa Monitor | Piggington's Econo-Almanac | San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis


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	~Navigation~ Home Commentary Housing market Credit market VoiceofSanDiego.org Bubble primer FAQ User forums ~User login~ Username: * Password: * Create new account Request new password ~RSS~ piggington.com articles		Scripps and Mira Mesa Monitor User Forum Topic Submitted by SD Realtor on July 2, 2007 - 10:40pm Okay guys... trying to keep my promise from earlier today. This will be the baseline post. It will be for detached homes only, it will be for the 92131 and 92126 zip codes. While these two zip codes are adjacent there is a fairly wide disparity in median income so it will be an interesting set of data. First off, props to sdr for starting and continuing both the short sale monitor and the carmel valley monitor. With that said... 7/2/07 - 92131 Actives - 114 Pendings - 44 Change from last week (unknown) Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 7 New pendings from 1 week ago - 4 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 1 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 1 No new expireds *************** 7/2/07 - 92126 Actives - 174 Pendings - 60 Change from last week (unknown) Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 7 New pendings from 1 week ago - 10 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 2 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 4 New expired from 1 week ago - 5 ‹ Bush's mortgage bailout just might work? Memories › Login or register to post comments Printer-friendly version Scripps Submitted by renter on July 5, 2007 - 1:46am. Scripps Ranch: http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-F570885... 65k less than 10/2004 price 160 DOM Login or register to post comments Another 40k+ loss in Submitted by g2006 on July 5, 2007 - 9:30am. Another 40k+ loss in scripps http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-07D3BF7... List Price: $550,000 04/08/2005 $590,000 09/05/1996 $167,990 Login or register to post comments One quick tip that has Submitted by sdrealtor on July 5, 2007 - 9:31am. One quick tip that has helped me a lot. Pick a day and time to run the numbers to keep them as consistent as possible. I run my submarket numbers (Active and Pendings only) as well as the Short Sale (actives) and SD County Inventory numbers (actives) every Monday after lunch. I do it this way because it is a snapshot in time. For Carmel Valley, I am running a week to week comparison of what's happening. In this case, I use the "days back" search and wait a day or two after the end of my tracking period to allow for some late reporting. Cheers Login or register to post comments Whats the market like down Submitted by what_a_disasta on July 5, 2007 - 11:56am. Whats the market like down in Stonebridge, 92131? I went to see the models back in '04 and they seemed like nice buildings, but a little bit far into the boonies for my taste. I saw this one: http://housing-crash.com/2007/06/24/pote... and wondered whether that was indicitive of a general post bubble malaise down there, or is that an exceptional case? Login or register to post comments sdr thanks for the tip. I Submitted by SD Realtor on July 5, 2007 - 3:27pm. sdr thanks for the tip. I will be doing a Wed - Wed week so to speak. Disasta, Stonebridge is should have your username on it... I have seen several short sales there already. To me it is going to be hit pretty hard and is already taking on water... Characterwise it is not my type of town... The homes are okay, big homes, okay sized lots but to me it just looks like east east east (and a little south) extension of Carmel Valley... lost of scrub hills flattened out with pads and built to the hilt with 800k - 2M dollar homes. Nothing against it... just not my cup o tea. SD Realtor Login or register to post comments This area also has hefty Submitted by MANmom on July 6, 2007 - 8:24am. This area also has hefty mello-roos taxes and HOAs...no wonder they are selling short. Login or register to post comments Update time. 7/10/07 - Submitted by SD Realtor on July 10, 2007 - 2:14pm. Update time. 7/10/07 - 92131 Total Actives - 116 Total Pendings - 44 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 4 New listings added in the past week - 11 New pendings from 1 week ago - 6 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 0 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 1 New expireds from 1 week ago - 2 So aggregate gain for listings active is + 2. ************* 7/10/07 - 92126 Actives - 188 Pendings - 56 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 3 New listings since last week - 20! New pendings from 1 week ago - 6 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 3 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 4 New expired from 1 week ago - 1 Aggregate gain for listings active is +14 SD Realtor Login or register to post comments Very nice and useful post Submitted by donaldduckmoore on July 10, 2007 - 3:33pm. Very nice and useful post and stats, SDR. Is it possible to do one more area, that is 92129 please. Thanks. Login or register to post comments Can do DDM... I will put it Submitted by SD Realtor on July 10, 2007 - 3:43pm. Can do DDM... I will put it up later tonite after the kids are to bed. SD Realtor Login or register to post comments you are wonderful Submitted by donaldduckmoore on July 10, 2007 - 4:15pm. you are wonderful Login or register to post comments 92129 Actives - Submitted by SD Realtor on July 10, 2007 - 11:42pm. 92129 Actives - 112 Pendings - 50 Change from last week 7/3/07 (unknown) Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 5 New pendings from last week - 8 New withdrawns from last week - 1 New cancelled from last week - 3 New expireds from last week - 1 SD Realtor Login or register to post comments SD Realtor, Here's another Submitted by WaitingToExhale on July 11, 2007 - 8:00am. SD Realtor, Here's another appreciator of the Penasquitos data. Thanks for adding it. Login or register to post comments Update time. 7/17/07 - Submitted by SD Realtor on July 18, 2007 - 4:17pm. Update time. 7/17/07 - 92131 Total Actives - 117 Total Pendings - 44 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 5 New listings added in the past week - 6 New pendings from 1 week ago - 6 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 1 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 1 New expireds from 1 week ago - 1 So aggregate gain for listings active is + 1. Comment - The one cancelled listing was a home on Reisling that was listed by Help U Sell and it was PREPOSTEROUSLY priced. It was listed at over 900k and they sat for 2 months with no activity. It is now listed with Keller Williams at 725-775 and THAT is to expensive. I knew the owners (who have since relocated to North Carolina) and they laughed at me when I said they should list in the 700's. More distress noted in Stonebridge. ************* 7/10/07 - 92126 Actives - 191 Pendings - 57 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 7 New listings since last week - 17 New pendings from 1 week ago - 11 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 3 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 0 New expired from 1 week ago - 1 Aggregate gain for listings active is +3 ************************* 92129 Actives - 108 Pendings - 51 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 4 New listings since last week - 9 New pendings from last week - 11! New withdrawns from last week - 2 New cancelled from last week - 3 New expireds from last week - 1 Comments - RP is actually pretty hot as witnessed by the active/pending ratio. SD Realtor Login or register to post comments Hi SDR, regarding 92129, why Submitted by donaldduckmoore on July 18, 2007 - 5:17pm. Hi SDR, regarding 92129, why did you add a ! next to new pendings from last week? Thanks. Login or register to post comments I thought it was worth a ! Submitted by SD Realtor on July 18, 2007 - 10:11pm. I thought it was worth a ! because the new pendings alone represent close to 10% of the total number of actives. SD Realtor Login or register to post comments This is perhaps a silly Submitted by WaitingToExhale on July 19, 2007 - 10:07am. This is perhaps a silly question, but with active vs. pendings are the pendings a subset of the actives, or counted separately? For example, if actives = 100 and pendings = 50, does that mean 1/2 of homes (50 out of 100 total) are pending, or 1/3 (50 out of a total of 150)? Thanks! Login or register to post comments Not a silly question at Submitted by SD Realtor on July 19, 2007 - 10:17am. Not a silly question at all... Pendings are in escrow and not considered actives. You can view a pending listing and in most cases submit a backup offer. Everyone plays with stats in their own way. In your example I would call the active pending ratio 2 to 1 (or 1 to 2 if you like) but others may not. SD Realtor Login or register to post comments Update time. 7/17/07 - Submitted by SD Realtor on July 24, 2007 - 4:46pm. Update time. 7/17/07 - 92131 Total Actives - 115 down by 2 from last week Total Pendings - 42 down by 2 from last week Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 6 up 1 New listings added in the past week - 10 up 4 (one was a relist) New pendings from 1 week ago - 5 down 1 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 6 up 5 (however 2 of them were mistakes on the MLS) New cancelled from 1 week ago - 1 same New expireds from 1 week ago - 3 up 2 Comment - Another home on Reisling that was listed originally at 725 then went to 698 and now is at 653! Unfortunately it is on a busy street and a cruddy home. A home on my street had been on the market awhile originally in the 800-875 repriced at 725-800 went pending about 10 days ago... That sucks as I was hoping for it to drop below 700. I am noting in some of the withdrawns that people are not under mortgage distress so they are bailing out on the idea of selling the home and will ride out the storm. ************* 7/10/07 - 92126 Actives - 193 up 2 Pendings - 58 up 1 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 10 up 3 New listings since last week - 18 up 1 New pendings from 1 week ago - 15 up 4 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 0 down 3 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 2 up 2 New expired from 1 week ago - 1 same ************************* 92129 Actives - 102 down 6 Pendings - 49 down 2 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 6 up 2 New listings since last week - 9 same New pendings from last week - 11 same New withdrawns from last week - 3 up 1 New cancelled from last week - 3 same New expireds from last week - 1 same SD Realtor Login or register to post comments can someone explain the Submitted by betting on fall on July 24, 2007 - 4:52pm. can someone explain the difference between withdrawn, cancelled and expired? Login or register to post comments withdrawn - this means that Submitted by SD Realtor on July 24, 2007 - 5:05pm. withdrawn - this means that there is still a contract in place between the seller and the broker. The home is technically not active for sale though. While a home is withdrawn the days on the market at not counted. cancelled - this means that the contract between the seller and the broker has been cancelled. The home did not sell. The seller will either find another broker to sell the home and relist or not go back on the market. expired - this means that the contract between the seller and the broker has reached the expiration date. The home did not sell. The seller will either relist with the same broker, relist with another broker, or not relist with anybody. In general the withdrawn, expired, and cancelled indicators show how many homes are NOT selling in a given period, (in this case a week) As markets deteriorate, these numbers grow as homes grow stale and do not sell because of lack of demand, and/or incorrect pricing. SD Realtor Login or register to post comments Hi SD Realtor, Can you Submitted by waitingtobuy on July 29, 2007 - 8:00am. Hi SD Realtor, Can you please add 92127,92128 and 92129 to the " Scripps and Mira Mesa Monitor" blog? Like me, a lot of folks may have a search-radius that includes scripps, MM, Rancho PQ, 4s Ranch and alike. Would be really helpful. Thanks Login or register to post comments 92129 has been added 2 weeks Submitted by SD Realtor on July 29, 2007 - 2:37pm. 92129 has been added 2 weeks ago and I will add 92127 and 92128. SD Realtor Login or register to post comments Update time. 7/31/07 - Submitted by SD Realtor on July 31, 2007 - 3:03pm. Update time. 7/31/07 - 92131 Total Actives - 120 up by 5 from last week Total Pendings - 43 up by 1 from last week Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 4 down 2 New listings added in the past week - 14 up 4 (I didn't count but there were several relisteds I believe) New pendings from 1 week ago - 7 up 2 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 0 down 4 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 2 up 1 New expireds from 1 week ago - 3 same Comments - None to speak of. A few more places came up for sale south of Pomerado. Would love to be there but they are in the mid to high 900's. Not gonna happen for me at that price. ************* 7/31/07 - 92126 Actives - 187 down 6 Pendings - 66 up 4 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 10 same New listings since last week - 8 down 10! New pendings from 1 week ago - 15 same New withdrawns from 1 week ago - up 3 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 6 up 4 New expired from 1 week ago - 1 same Comments - Still alot of activity in MM. We will be opening escrow on a listing in Summerset that has had alot of activity. ************************* 7/31/07 Update 92129 Actives - 102 same Pendings - 40 down 9 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 8 up 2 New listings since last week - 10 up 1 New pendings from last week - 6 down 5 New withdrawns from last week - 3 same New cancelled from last week - 3 same New expireds from last week - 1 same 7/31/07 Update 92128 Actives - 179 Pendings - 70 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 6 New listings since last week - 18! New pendings from last week - 14 New withdrawns from last week - 1 New cancelled from last week - 4 New expireds from last week - 7 7/31/07 Update 92127 Actives - 241 Pendings - 72 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 13 New listings since last week - 15 New pendings from last week - 9 New withdrawns from last week - 5 New cancelled from last week - 3 New expireds from last week - 5 SD Realtor Sorry but no more zips to be added. Login or register to post comments SDR, you are getting busier Submitted by donaldduckmoore on August 1, 2007 - 8:51am. SDR, you are getting busier apparently. But thanks for your nice work. Really appreciate it. Login or register to post comments Update time. Note that I Submitted by SD Realtor on August 7, 2007 - 11:01pm. Update time. Note that I screwed up on the search and did not include 8/6 in the numbers. I am to tired to revise the numbers. Sorry bout that. 8/6/07 - 92131 Total Actives - 124 up by 4 from last week Total Pendings - 39 down by 4 from last week Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 8 up 4 New listings added in the past week - 9 down 5 New pendings from 1 week ago - 4 down 3 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 0 down 4 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 0 down 2 New expireds from 1 week ago - 1 same Comments - sdr you are ALL TO CORRECT...I have been hawking Scripps for over a year now and in that time only 5 properties have come on the market that I really like. On 8/4 the listing on Red Cedar that I was going to lowball went pending. It was purchased for 925k in 04 and they had it listed for 875k-925k... To refresh one point that sdr has made consistently is that there may be alot of better deals as prices decline but not alot of great properties. So far this is VERY TRUE for me at least. Hopefully that will change. If I don't post anymore it is because my wife has killed me. ************* 7/31/07 - 92126 Actives - 191 up 4 Pendings - 68 up 2 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 4 down 6 New listings since last week - 16 up 8 New pendings from 1 week ago - 8 down 7 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 2 up 2 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 3 down 3 New expired from 1 week ago - 3 up 2 ************************* 7/31/07 Update 92129 Actives - 105 up 3 Pendings - 40 same Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 2 down 6 New listings since last week - 6 down 4 New pendings from last week - 5 down 5 New withdrawns from last week - 1 down 2 New cancelled from last week - 3 same New expireds from last week - 5 up 4 7/31/07 Update 92128 Actives - 183 up 4 Pendings - 65 down 5 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 12 up 6 New listings since last week - 15 down 3 New pendings from last week - 5 down 9 New withdrawns from last week - 3 up 2 New cancelled from last week - 2 down 2 New expireds from last week - 6 down 1 7/31/07 Update 92127 Actives - 241 same Pendings - 70 down 2 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 6 down 7 New listings since last week - 23 up 8 New pendings from last week - 9 same New withdrawns from last week - 3 down 2 New cancelled from last week - 7 up 4 New expireds from last week - 9 up 4 SD Realtor Sorry but no more zips to be added. reply SDR, you are getting busier Submitted by donaldduckmoore on August 1, 2007 - 8:51am. SDR, you are getting busier apparently. But thanks for your nice work. Really appreciate it. replySD Realtor Login or register to post comments Dear SD Realtor Thanks for Submitted by fromnj on August 8, 2007 - 7:26am. Dear SD Realtor Thanks for posting. Great info! I have noticed the same thing. The great property is very difficult to find and it sells very quickly too. I found two good looking houses [with good location] in 92129, but they went to escrow right away in past few months. I have been trying to convince my wife to wait for another year or so for a past few months because existing houses are still very expensive and also not mnay good looking houses avaialale yet. Login or register to post comments Update time. 8/13/07 - Submitted by SD Realtor on August 15, 2007 - 10:49pm. Update time. 8/13/07 - 92131 Total Actives - 124 same Total Pendings - 35 down by 4 from last week Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 5 down 3 New listings added in the past week - 11 up 2 New pendings from 1 week ago - 3 down 1 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 3 up 3 New cancelled from 1 week ago - 4 up 4 New expireds from 1 week ago - 1 same ************* 8/13/07 - 92126 Actives - 197 up 6 Pendings - 48 Down 20!!! Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 8 up 4 New listings since last week - 13 down 3 New pendings from 1 week ago - 5 down 3 New withdrawns from 1 week ago - 2 same New cancelled from 1 week ago - 2 down 1 New expired from 1 week ago - 3 same ************************* 8/7/07 Update 92129 Actives - 109 up 4 Pendings - 33 down 7 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 7 up 5 New listings since last week - 10 up 4 New pendings from last week - 3 down 2 New withdrawns from last week - 1 same New cancelled from last week - 2 up 1 New expireds from last week - 0 down 5 ******************** 8/7/07 Update 92128 Actives - 184 up 1 Pendings - 60 down 5 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 9 down 3 New listings since last week - 15 same New pendings from last week - 7 up 2 New withdrawns from last week - 0 down 3 New cancelled from last week - 2 same New expireds from last week - 0 down 6 8/7/07 Update 92127 Actives - 245 up 4 Pendings - 65 down 5 Closed escrows (sold) in the past week - 3 down 3 New listings since last week - 19 down 4 New pendings from last week - 6 down 3 New withdrawns from last week - 5 up 2 New cancelled from last week - 5 down 2 New expireds from last week - 4 down 5 SD Realtor There are some peculiar numbers here. I don't want to draw any conclusions yet. Also without plotting the numbers it is hard to analyze the data. Login or register to post comments W/O agonizing over your Submitted by sdrealtor on August 16, 2007 - 9:47am. W/O agonizing over your numbers I see two very clear points. Actives have been relatively stable to slightly up which I interpret to mean people are reluctant to list in this market combined with fallouts of previous escrows. Pendings are down in every ZIP in the middle of the month. No interpretation needed on that one. Login or register to post comments sdrealtor- off topic a bit, Submitted by lendingbubbleco... on August 16, 2007 - 9:51am. sdrealtor- off topic a bit, but what do you think happens if the inability to obtain non-conforming jumbo loans in California comes home to roost for a few months? big leg down? Login or register to post comments I wish I knew. My best guess Submitted by sdrealtor on August 16, 2007 - 10:23am. I wish I knew. My best guess would be a frozen market. Sellers in denial hoping it gets better in Spring, buyers very sparce, lenders gradually giving in etc. The real recognition wouldnt occur for close to a year form now. People dont like change and move slow. Greed is motivating while fear is immobilizing. Give it time grasshoppah! 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