San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I think the same thing is going to happen in Santaluz this time that happened in Fairbanks Ranch last time. They got caught with a ton of high-dollar inventory in varying stages of development going in and took some really big losses by the time it was over. I'd guess that 90% of the homes in construction over there are spec homes, not owner-builders.

There have been several recent sales in Santa Luz for over $3,000,000 - I don't get it. They're great homes, I'm sure, but it's still a Rancho Bernardo zip code. For that price, think what you could buy in RSF, Del Mar, or La Jolla.

I always drive around Santa Luz at night to put my daughter to sleep in the car. I agree some of the homes are quite nice, but I also agree it's WAY out there -- lots of driving involved just to do your basic shopping, and only a handful of mediocre restaurants at that small shopping center near Hwy 56. Seriously, you'd have to drive 20 minutes to buy a beer at a bar!

Apart from its isolated location, the other reasons we never seriously considered moving there are traffic and, of course, the cost of ownership. I just don't think Camino del Sur is going to be able to handle all the commuter traffic once Santa Luz and Del Sur are fully sold and occupied. And as someone else pointed out, between HOA and Mello-Roos, you're at least $1000 out of pocket each month before you even start to pay your mortgage. Add to that the inflated prices, and total cost of ownership would be well above virtually all of Carmel Valley and probably very similar to the nicer parts of Encinitas or Solana Beach.

Anyway, since I drive my daughter around there regularly, I have noticed a significant increase in the number of 'for sale' signs posted at / near one of the main Santa Luz entrances. As I recall, the HOA had strict rules about how you can market your home (no garish signs, etc). Now, it's a free for all -- lots of big signs near all the entrances!

Yes, thank you for confirming my impressions. I think this is an area with beautiful homes but it does not have the attractions of locations such as Coronado, Del Mar, La Jolla to command prices of 500-600 dollars and more/sq ft. At least Rancho Santa Fe homes usually have spacious yards to enjoy......
I am glad to hear that I am not the only one that just doesn't get it. I felt like the child wanting to say something about the Emporer's clothes as I walked with the realtor and looked at the prices of the homes in this area. I think the high end homes in certain areas are going to take a bigger hit than people realize. I have heard some say that homes above 1.5M are not effected as much during a downturn because people looking in this price range are not as strapped for cash.......but from what I have seen people making 200-300K/yr stretched themselves as far with ARM's etc. in the past 2 years as the median income folks. I think the full spectrum of the housing market will feel the blow this time around.

I had similar feelings cruising the area a while ago.....my main question was Why ? Jeez, your out in the middle of nowhere and its dusty, barren (except for the urban sprawl) and underdeveloped I thought. I have played that golf course also, its HARD because they didnt spend the HUGE amounts necessarry to make it playable, they got cheap in a few area's.

I have seen houses (lots) around the course that dsont have any landscaping and have sheets hanging in the windows, not drapery.

There will be some blood baths in Santa Luz....And sooner than you might think in my opinion, the noveau riche always get hit the hardest and fastest during economic downturns 

Whenever I drive through Santaluz I think of the old Roadrunner cartoons with a slanted signpost in the middle of nowhere and arrows pointing in every direction.

Where exactly is SantaLuz? As you go along 56, it's obviously not in the Westview school area since I saw Rancho Bernardo mentioned, as it's school system. I realize that Westview and RB are both Poway schools, I just mean that for some reason I had the impression Santa Luz was along the 56, when clearly it must be inland a few miles.

Also is there any decent connector from the highway that goes from RSF to Escondido, that allows you to get into Rancho Bernardo? We have some old friends from Ohio that moved out here and everytime the kids want to get together it's a pain driving from Encinitas to RB. I keep thinking "man there must be a way to cut through", so I end up just doing 5-56-15, because the back way ends up taking me so far north of my RB exit it isn't worth it.

Santa Luz is the community that you see to either side of Camino del Sur as you head north of Hwy 56. Technically, I guess it begins as you pass Carmel Mountain Road heading North, and it ends when Camino del Sur ends a couple miles beyond that intersection. Keep heading North and you'll get to the new community of Del Sur.

The part that is East of Camino del Sur is generally low density (near the golf course), while the part West of Camino del Sur features homes in the 3000-4000 sq ft range on fairly small lots, similar to Carmel Valley.

Lastly, you CAN get to Escondido / Poway from RSF if you just take county road S-7 (?) that heads due east from the village of RSF. It's mainly a 2-lane road that goes past the new Crosby / Links / El Cielo subdivisions and then along the Western part of Lake Hodges. It's hardly an interstate, but probably a bit quicker than heading down to 56 and then over to I-15.

Its called the Del Dios highway.

Josh

Regardless of the name, is there a way to sneak into Rancho Bernardo, insteading of going all the up to Escondido and crossing back to the 15?

I have been following Raptor's comments on his search for homes in Santaluz, RSF and FB. I completely agree with his assesment of Santaluz ........it seems as though not much has changed in past year.

I have toured about 1/2 dozen homes in Santaluz in the $3M-$4M range. I had first heard about it from an acquaintance who sold his very nice home in Rancho Sata Fe Farms and bought a house in Sataluz back in 2004. Since I generally thought well of this guy, when I decided to shop down there this year, we added Santaluz to my search on our third trip.

Before hand, I had heard about the "dessert" motiff, which turned me off. In person, not so much. For what they are going for there, it is well done IMHO.

Location? Compared to some other areas in RSF I am looking at, it is more conveient for a commute and for shopping. This is relative, of course, to places like the covenant or Cielo, for example. I did like the more open feeling of the area and subtle views.

Now I am not a building expert, but the quality of the homes I toured were quite impressive. My measure is not just quality of build, but design, finishes, style etc. Those homes do tailor to my tastes quite well. So I thought the homes were great, quite honestly. Great floor plans, beautiful houses, very very nice. They were in the 6,000-7,500 sf range with 5-6 bedrooms.

My first knock on the area is that the yards I found way to small for the size of the lot. What I learned is that lots are circular without a frontage. What that apparently means is that you can orient your house any way you want. Some had the entrance in the back and the pool in the front, for example. Most have traditional orientations. Pools were miniversions of what you would expect. Very little lawn. Again, another rule is that you can only have 25% of the "inner pad" whatever that means, as lawn. You can only grow drought resistant plants. For example, the rules only permit 2 types of palm trees. So most of your free land will be "dessert like" and most of it not usable. There will probably be a fence that will mark an area 60% of what you actually own.

Another knock of course is the zip and schools (not the system so much as where your kids are actually going to go, Del Sur?).

My biggest issue is the same as the previous posters, the prices. Overall, I must say, I do like the Santaluz area. I like the homes, the 4 acres per home rules, even the terraine theme. It grew on me. I would be happy living in one of those houses I toured. But no, not at those prices. The average price of the homes I toured was probably $3.5 million or so with an average size of 6,500 sf (rough guesses). At those prices, you can get comprable size homes in RSF, even Fairbanks Ranch. For that you get the RSF zips and schools WITHOUT Mello Roos. That is my problem. Like others here, I am also concerned about the market hurting this area more, since it is still being built out.

Now I tried talking price a little with selling agents (through my agent) and they seem to be a bit arrogant/intransigent about the market. If we note a comp that sold for much less than they are asking, they say that comp is built by another builder and an odd floor plan/orientation yada yada. Of course they pick the high comps. Now this is not an exclusive tactic of Santaluz agents mind you, but my frame of mind is that homes there are more overpriced than anywhere else I am looking.

For me to take real interest in buying there, prices will have to be at least 20% lower. I will keep looking there, because I do like the houses and maybe, just maybe, somebody will list a home at an appropriate price. But I compltely agree, that the large ones I have toured are too expensive, not so much for what you get for the investment (i.e. the home itself) so much as the fact that they are not in RSF, have huge Mello Roos, are likely to depreciate significantly in the next few years, have too many question marks with schools, and have minimal back yards relative to RSF. Compared to my other options, they are too much, period.

But please do note. I am not knocking the area. It may not be for everybody's taste (neither is Cielo, FBR, or Del Mar for that matter (some people are afraid of oceans. ;)), but for my taste I do like the area. I think I like FBR much more, but Santaluz is a nice community IMHO. I may indeed end up buying a home there if the price is right. But yes, a bit overpriced for this market and I won't be paying anywhere near the asking prices of the homes I toured.

BobS
Raptorduck: Have followed your posts about your search for some time, & enjoyed your comments about Santaluz, where my wife and I have lived for 2+ years. Our satisfaction with Santaluz gets higher the longer we live here. The low density, strict landscaping and architectural controls, the gated aspect, and the dark skies lighting policy fit us fine--but are not for everybody. Read the CC&Rs carefully & be prepared to live with them.
Remember that part of "Santaluz" is west of the Camino Del Sur and is high density or impacted by huge power lines, so is not in your league. Also remember that there are only two gated entrances so don't by swayed by comments by another poster about all the signs out in front on Camino Del Sur pushing open houses. There is nowhere else to put the signs for this rather large community, so they'll bunch up there.
Given your deep analysis, I suspect you already know more about the comparative merits of Santaluz vs. the competition. You probably know more about the schools, building possibilities, etc. than I do. I only weigh in as one who has experienced the place, and who, frankly, likes tough CC&Rs.
Another observation about Santaluz: Lots of young families! This surprised us, and a lot of other residents. Where do they get their money? I dunno...techies I suspect. Anyway, with a large and growing family, that may be a consideration for you.
As to the arrogant and all-knowing RE agents...you are smart enough to not be swayed by anecdotal evidence. I've observed good ones and bad ones here, and with the direction of the San Diego marketplace, the pompous ones will (should) soon be humbled by the trends. Time is on your side, and if you are patient and knowledgeable, you will find the optimal place.

Raptor - Half of the battle is finding something you like. If SL fits that bill which it sounds as if it may indeed, then you are in a great position. The fact that it is overpriced is not a worry because time is on your side and it will come down. All you need to do is peg the homes you really like and ask your agent to keep watching them. There is no way that they will all sell and they will slide eventually. Perhaps later this year but if you are looking for a 20% reduction you are more then likely looking at fall of 08 at a minimum.

Again though, finding what you really like is the hard part...ooops... strike that... according the Tom Petty the waiting is the hardest part. (Sorry raptor that last reference is to a song I used to like about 20 years ... or maybe 25 years ago...)

SD Realtor

Raptor, this is a home in your range that I followed for a while in Santaluz. It appeared to be high end construction with large central courtyard.....ie no strange floorplan/ location etc. If I remember correctly it was for sale for 4.1M at one point. You may want to include this one in your comps...

Parcel Number: 303-174-23-00
Property Location: 8173 DOUG HILL
Purchase Price: $3340000
Living Area: 7293
Bedrooms: 5
Bathrooms: 5
Document Date: 7-26-2007

BobS

BobS. Indeed I think they should stick to their CC&Rs. Clearly the developers were going for a particular theme. I think that it works and even though I am a lover of water wasting tropical plants, large lawns and trees etc, if I move there I have no intention of wanting to mess up the theme or griping about it. While I am no big fan of HOA restrictions, if I go in with eyes open, then I have signed up to the rules. Because the theme is clearly planned out there, it works for what it is and it works for me. Only the prices don't.

My own current neighborhood was overpriced when I bought here. It has lots of HOA rules. It is cramped with tiny lots, like most of Carmel Valley (it remains one of the most CV like neighborhoods I have seen in the Bay Area). But I like it, I like it quite a bit. Arguably, it is still over priced (except for my house of course, since I am selling. ;)) It was all I could afford when I bought my house and after some remodling I like my house and my neighborhood, despite the HOA rules. I liked living in CV too, quite a bit. Despite the same issues.

I just enjoy seeing how you wealthy folk look for homes, it sounds pretty fun. My goals will be more along the 1500-2000 Sq. Foot range, but it will take a few years. I can't ever imagine living somewhere like Del Sur or RSF. I am pushing 40 and work at a place with no stock options, so I doubt I'll ever have a big enough windfall to buy into those sorts of areas. Of course debt load, and losing $$$ on midwestern house after moving here didn't help. We had to maintain that house longer than expected and the final sale caused me to have to bring $$$ to the table.