San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Nice.

Quick history...

The home was purchased in 2006 for 2.15M. The home was listed back in 8/07 for 2.195-2.395M and the listing expired back in 12/07. The home was relisted in January at 2.395 and is currently at 1.6-1.995 and is a short sale. Looks like they owe a bit more then 2M on it. I would bet that they already have an offer on it the way this goofy market has been this spring.

SD Realtor

There are three offers in, according to the listing agent - all above the $1.6 million.

Jim the Realtor

Submitted by jimklinge on April 17, 2008 - 4:25am.
There are three offers in, according to the listing agent - all above the $1.6 million.

My rule of thumb for evaluating suspicious claims is divide the number in question by π. In cases when the source is particularly untrustworthy, it's permissible to divide the claimed number by π².

Are you talking about me? You better bring everything you got if you are going to call me 'particularly untrustworthy' - them are fightin' words.

Jim the Realtor

No, Jim, I am actually a big fan of yours. Seriously. I think you've earned the respect of this community and mine personally time and again. I apologize for giving you that impression.

I was talking about the listing agent and the number of offers. I think it's a reasonable estimate to divide that number by PI.

That's cool, I'm a big fan of yours too.

I like the agent, and doubt she's lying about the number. But yes, I'd question the ability of the offerees to withstand the next 3-4 months of short sale proceedings. By the time the lender's negotiator gets around to making a decision, those three offerees will be long gone, and the two foreclosures-in-process down the street will be ready for harvest.

I have shown this house a couple of times, and it definitely has it flaws. It could slide a lot further down the scale, the longer it takes.

I think the banks are in for a big surprise in the 92127 high-end market. This year 90 new listings have come on the market over $1,400,000, and only two of those have closed escrow, one for $1,500,000 and the other for $3,800,000.

I know all the homeowners around there are probably thinking they are worth $2 million-plus, but there isn't much evdience of such.

Currently there are 94 active listings in 92127 between $1.4 and $7.4. There just aren't enough willing buyers for 94 homes in that price range - especially buyers willing to pay $500 to $1,000 per month in mello-roos.

JTR

Thanks everyone, I appreciate the candid thoughts. I like that area a lot and agree that it's probably ripe for steeper drops. I'm going to watch it closely over the next 12 months.

There's also been some interesting activity in the Lakes, particularly on San Antonio Rose Ct. A few homes in the low 300's per sq ft. as well.

Lennar recently announced that there would be 2 new communities opening in the Lakes this summer (Espada & Revena) in the low millions...seems like a rough market to spark up a new development in...especially when Lennar revenue is down 60+% and orders are down 50+%.