Submitted by WaitingToExhale on September 12, 2007 - 10:06am.
August 2007 Closed Sales: This doesn't look as bad to me as I expected. With apologies to Artifact, I've tried my hand at graphing these data out. I know this is a dangerous forum to ask this, and I certainly WANT house prices to dramatically drop for my family's sake, but is anybody else concerned that it doesn't look worse? Through August, it looks like total closed sales are down 11%... or, looking at it another way, sales are still at almost 90% of last year's, even in this "terrible market!" What's the missing piece here? I want to believe....
Submitted by WaitingToExhale on September 12, 2007 - 10:34am.
Closed Sales + 2005: I added the 2005 data, which helps to put it in perspective. I am still surprised that there's a great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the media this year, with sales pretty much equivalent to last year's, and almost nothing last year when sales were dramatically down from 2005.
It is interesting that the lowest months (Jan and Feb) are pretty similar for all three years, with reductions in bounces for 2006 and 2007. Perhaps 2000 or so sales is the baseline minimum?
Submitted by LA_Renter on September 12, 2007 - 10:35am.
The numbers are actually surprising. I'm looking at these juxtaposed to the OC and LA numbers which are producing dramatic panic inducing "Oh My God!" moments. I guess my thoughts are that San Diego has been leading this downturn with significant drops in volume for the last two years. It's the fact that they are still going down after all this time that is becoming the story. We are getting to a "how low can they go?" moment here. I don't think you will see dramatic declines from here given they have already happened. Isn't San Diego seeing sales volumes at or below what they were in the 1990's without being adjusted for population? Does anybody have any info that?
Keep in mind that Sept will be the month that shows the full shock of the credit event in Aug. There are many reports that pendings are falling out at pretty dramatic rates. Those numbers will be interesting to see.
Submitted by SD Realtor on September 12, 2007 - 10:47am.
"Keep in mind that Sept will be the month that shows the full shock of the credit event in Aug."
LA_Renter... perhaps, but I think that the seasonal decline associated with Sept/Oct/Nov may mask that effect somewhat. It may be difficult to discern that effect. Also I believe that the credit crunch will ebb and flow. We saw a very harsh contraction and now we are seeing things ease up a little bit (much to the chagrin of many posters here). Everyone was all whipped up about it and we saw tons of posts yet I have only seen one post recently by carlover about the fact that it actually has lessened to some extent. I believe we will have a credit market that is tighter then it has been, yet it will oscillate between being very very harsh and just kind of harsh over the next few years. Especially if a recession does kick in.
I think that maybe September will show the full shock but I think that we will see seasonally low numbers because fall is always soft....yeah they may be adjusted somewhat due to the secular downtrend/credit crunch etc...I am just hopeful that the sales volume come spring of 08 will still continue to be below spring of 07.
My read is that at some point the sales volumes will flatten out and not decline anymore. At that point I am hopeful that the median starts to fall some. This of course is a long term projection over the next few years.
Submitted by LA_Renter on September 12, 2007 - 11:05am.
SD Realtor, Pretty much agreed although if you see a big drop in Sep 07 vs Sep 06 the mask will be pretty transparent. It will be interesting to see the REIC go into full gear this winter. That's all they have, the market is basically in hibernation so it gives them an opportunity to play "Lets Pretend". I imagine the FED will be lowering into the winter and this will give to a narrative of a big Spring rebound, They have alot of money and media contacts to drive this story line home. I don't look forward to it.
Note: I now we beat this "dead horse" (inventory and its significance) to a pulp on another recent thread but its worth linking inventory levels to the sales numbers thread.
Submitted by betting on fall on September 12, 2007 - 12:04pm.
What's the opposite of looking for a silver lining? I guess whatever it is it what we piggington's will do with these numbers.
Here's my attempt: just taking the average price for the July and Aug. closings (# of closing/value of closed sales), Aug. appears to have come in 3% lower average price than July.
A 3% price drop in a single month is a big deal.
I suspect lots of buyers saw listing prices being cut and thought they would get a "good" deal.
Still, its hard to believe there are the same number of buyers out there with the demise of subprime and higher priced jumbos.
Submitted by LA_Renter on September 12, 2007 - 12:02pm.
Suppose for argument sake that inventory levels stabilize (by that I mean they stabilize according to seasonality meaning peaking about this time of year and then falling in winter and picking up in spring) according to OC Renter's blog, http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/searc... , we are at population adjusted all time high inventory levels, and lets suppose that sales transactions level off at this level which are running at or below some of the worst levels of the mid 90's. And lets suppose that NOD's and NOT's level off at where they are today, substantially higher than they were at the worst levels of the mid 90's. What are the consequences for San Diego RE if things just level off right now where they are for 24 to 36 mos?? Case Shiller is showing that sales/inventory/NOT's at these levels are producing steady home price declines. Point is right where we are right now is bad enough and if it stays this way it will result in a more pronounced downturn than the 90's.
Submitted by sd_bear on September 12, 2007 - 1:02pm.
From the newest article it states that:
"the August sales data reflects the closing of deals that were primarly made in July. Round two of the mortgage credit crunch probably won't make itself fully known until we get next month's housing data."
Based on this it makes sense that August would look very similar to July. If the trend continues through the September data I think that would be troubling.
Standing inventory tells a story, but the number of REOs and short sale listings in that standing inventory would tell a more important story.
2300+ NODs for August could translate out to 1400 foreclosures by December. Even if the number of foreclosures were to plateau (which basically can't happen at this point), think about what a 1400/month REO rate does to a 2200/month avg rate of sales.
For the period during which we're adding 1400 foreclosures to the standing inventory every month it almost doesn't matter what the other 20,000 listings do. That number could drop to 5,000 listings - not that it will - and it still wouldn't matter because the REOs all have to be sold for whatever the market will bear at that time, regardless of the losses involved.
For those couple of you who can't see this happening right in front of your eyes I can only express my profound condolences. It's people like you who are surprised when the train that's coming down the track you're standing on hits you.
Submitted by schizo2buyORnot on September 12, 2007 - 7:24pm.
Are you blind or just can't read a statistical read out? The link to inventory, not sales, clearly lays out that for the past 2 months the yoy inventory numbers have been essentially flat. Sales have weakened and thus the "months of inventory" has expanded. Actual inventory numbers yoy have been flat. Attack the numbers/statistics all you want' its right there.
Submitted by Artifact on September 12, 2007 - 7:36pm.
schizo -
Like I said in the other thread you posted that data in, I agree that yoy has stayed relatively flat.
I still think that what is interesting in the data you are citing is that last year at this point inventory was falling, this year it is still going up. What happens next month will be interesting - if inventory stays level or increases, the yoy comparison will start changing in a hurry. I do think it is an artifact of the decreasing sales, like you said.
Submitted by happily_waiting on September 12, 2007 - 8:17pm.
I guess i dont understand months of inventory...
From the Sandicor stats, just the last 3 months:
Month / New listings / # Closed Sales
Jun / 7124 / 2468
Jul / 7014 / 2189
Aug / 6936 / 2182
After June we have (7124-2468)=4656 remaining unsold.
Then, plus the new listings in July (7014+4656)=11,670.
After July we have (11,670-2189)=9481 remaining unsold.
Then, plus the new listings in Aug (9481+6936)=16,417.
After Aug we have (16,417-2182)=14,235 remaining unsold.
So, with an average (Jun-Aug) monthly sales of 2280, that leaves us with (14,235/2280)=6 months of unsold inventory. That's 6 months of inventory accumulated in ONLY the last 3 months. If we add in all the unsolds from Jan-May, or prior, it seems like the months of unsold inventory should skyrocket accordingly.
Median house value dips $20K
With sales falling, the median price of homes here tumbles to $475,000, down $20,000 from a year ago and $14,000 from a month earlier
Submitted by schizo2buyORnot on September 12, 2007 - 11:02pm.
little one . . . you'll notice from my posts I don't unilateraly engage in the inane ad hominem attacks or worthless blather of "go ahead buy a house! a huh a huh a huh yuck yuck yuck . . . . etc." I cite hard facts and statistics and ask for feedback from PIGS as to the facts' meanings. But I am amused when my anonymous alias is attacked by someone such as you and I do rather enjoy responding . . . thanks for the entertainment.
Submitted by little lady on September 13, 2007 - 8:25am.
"I cite hard facts and statistics "
NOT
YOU are delusional.........San Diego County housing prices continued their slide in August as home sales dropped to a 15-year low, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday. READ IT and weep sucker...........
Submitted by Ex-SD on September 13, 2007 - 8:32am.
Schizo lives in an imaginary world where facts mean nothing and his inane ramblings just keep tumbling out of his mouth like the prices that are falling all around him. I've been around the horn with him before and it's just a big waste of time. I'm convinced that he's just trolling in an attempt to irritate anyone who will take the bait. If enough people ignore him, maybe he will slink back into his hole.
Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on September 13, 2007 - 8:56am.
Actually schizo is correct that inventory has been flat for a couple of months. But in a vacuum, this means nothing. Sales have been declining as well, resulting in further downward pressure on prices. Salt in the obvious things already stated in this thread regarding mortgage shakedown and I think it's obvious where we are headed.
These facts should provide the necessary medication to help schizo avoid another attack. But at some point the underlying disease will cause symptoms to re-emerge.
I think the following definition says it all.
Schizophrenia, from the Greek roots schizein (σχίζειν, "to split") and phrēn, phren- (φρήν, φρεν-, "mind"), is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a mental illness characterized by impairments in the perception or expression of reality , most commonly manifesting as auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions or disorganized speech and thinking in the context of significant social or occupational dysfunction .
Schizo was talking about inventory stabilizng and the article points out that inventory (despite all the REO's on the market) is actually 2,000 units below last year's level at this point. If you want to figure out what is happening you have to be objective.
I find it strange that the median price for resale homes was actually up YOY in August when it was widely assumed that Jumbo loans were becoming very hard to get. While median is not a great indicator, I would have thought a lot more lower priced homes would have sold in the face of poor liquidity for non-conforming loans.
If you look at the numbers from this article, the overall median (for all homes) was influenced mostly by the big drop in new home/condo sales prices. REO's and new homes are "must sell". As those inventories increase prices (overall) should continue to drift lower. It would be interesting to get an accurate reading on inventories of REO's and new homes and be able to track that.
He is making exactly the only point I have made here. Inventories have stablized, or in Rich's assessment declined 4% yoy. I have always granted its just one factor in a mix of factors which indicate more downside from here taken in total. However, leveling inventories bears watching nonetheless. Nothing "imaginary" or "inane" here just facts cited by the Toscano himself which mirror exactly what I have posited.
Props to FormerSanDiegan for getting my point . . . .
"Actually schizo is correct that inventory has been flat for a couple of months."
I guess its just not in line with the whole "rah rah rah . . . housing is going to crash and we are going to buy at the bottom" mentality/group think crowd's hopes and dreams. It is in line with those who take a dispassionate and objective analysis of what will be perhaps the most important financial decision we will ever make.
Submitted by SHILOH on September 13, 2007 - 2:31pm.
Does the inventory number include properties the banks may be sitting on to keep their balance sheets looking better than they are? If the inventory that banks are sitting on is not represented from foreclosed property - then it's hard to say how much inventory is out there.
August 2007 Closed Sales: This doesn't look as bad to me as I expected. With apologies to Artifact, I've tried my hand at graphing these data out. I know this is a dangerous forum to ask this, and I certainly WANT house prices to dramatically drop for my family's sake, but is anybody else concerned that it doesn't look worse? Through August, it looks like total closed sales are down 11%... or, looking at it another way, sales are still at almost 90% of last year's, even in this "terrible market!" What's the missing piece here? I want to believe....
Time Exhale... it just takes time man...
SD Realtor
Closed Sales + 2005: I added the 2005 data, which helps to put it in perspective. I am still surprised that there's a great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the media this year, with sales pretty much equivalent to last year's, and almost nothing last year when sales were dramatically down from 2005.
It is interesting that the lowest months (Jan and Feb) are pretty similar for all three years, with reductions in bounces for 2006 and 2007. Perhaps 2000 or so sales is the baseline minimum?
The numbers are actually surprising. I'm looking at these juxtaposed to the OC and LA numbers which are producing dramatic panic inducing "Oh My God!" moments. I guess my thoughts are that San Diego has been leading this downturn with significant drops in volume for the last two years. It's the fact that they are still going down after all this time that is becoming the story. We are getting to a "how low can they go?" moment here. I don't think you will see dramatic declines from here given they have already happened. Isn't San Diego seeing sales volumes at or below what they were in the 1990's without being adjusted for population? Does anybody have any info that?
Keep in mind that Sept will be the month that shows the full shock of the credit event in Aug. There are many reports that pendings are falling out at pretty dramatic rates. Those numbers will be interesting to see.
"Keep in mind that Sept will be the month that shows the full shock of the credit event in Aug."
LA_Renter... perhaps, but I think that the seasonal decline associated with Sept/Oct/Nov may mask that effect somewhat. It may be difficult to discern that effect. Also I believe that the credit crunch will ebb and flow. We saw a very harsh contraction and now we are seeing things ease up a little bit (much to the chagrin of many posters here). Everyone was all whipped up about it and we saw tons of posts yet I have only seen one post recently by carlover about the fact that it actually has lessened to some extent. I believe we will have a credit market that is tighter then it has been, yet it will oscillate between being very very harsh and just kind of harsh over the next few years. Especially if a recession does kick in.
I think that maybe September will show the full shock but I think that we will see seasonally low numbers because fall is always soft....yeah they may be adjusted somewhat due to the secular downtrend/credit crunch etc...I am just hopeful that the sales volume come spring of 08 will still continue to be below spring of 07.
My read is that at some point the sales volumes will flatten out and not decline anymore. At that point I am hopeful that the median starts to fall some. This of course is a long term projection over the next few years.
SD Realtor
SD Realtor, Pretty much agreed although if you see a big drop in Sep 07 vs Sep 06 the mask will be pretty transparent. It will be interesting to see the REIC go into full gear this winter. That's all they have, the market is basically in hibernation so it gives them an opportunity to play "Lets Pretend". I imagine the FED will be lowering into the winter and this will give to a narrative of a big Spring rebound, They have alot of money and media contacts to drive this story line home. I don't look forward to it.
The sales are down, time will tell where they go from here.
I believe it will snowball from here.
I have seen 45 houses for sale in my area under 400k. I haven't seen that in a few years.
In addition to sales numbers that are not dropping off a cliff. We have stabilized yoy inventory numbers as well for about 2 months running.
http://www.housingtracker.net/askingpric...
Note: I now we beat this "dead horse" (inventory and its significance) to a pulp on another recent thread but its worth linking inventory levels to the sales numbers thread.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
"In addition to sales numbers that are not dropping off a cliff. We have stabilized yoy inventory numbers as well for about 2 months running."
Sales are below 2006. Inventory is about the same. Therefore Months of inventory has increased. This is the key barometer for prices.
What's the opposite of looking for a silver lining? I guess whatever it is it what we piggington's will do with these numbers.
Here's my attempt: just taking the average price for the July and Aug. closings (# of closing/value of closed sales), Aug. appears to have come in 3% lower average price than July.
A 3% price drop in a single month is a big deal.
I suspect lots of buyers saw listing prices being cut and thought they would get a "good" deal.
Still, its hard to believe there are the same number of buyers out there with the demise of subprime and higher priced jumbos.
Suppose for argument sake that inventory levels stabilize (by that I mean they stabilize according to seasonality meaning peaking about this time of year and then falling in winter and picking up in spring) according to OC Renter's blog, http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/searc... , we are at population adjusted all time high inventory levels, and lets suppose that sales transactions level off at this level which are running at or below some of the worst levels of the mid 90's. And lets suppose that NOD's and NOT's level off at where they are today, substantially higher than they were at the worst levels of the mid 90's. What are the consequences for San Diego RE if things just level off right now where they are for 24 to 36 mos?? Case Shiller is showing that sales/inventory/NOT's at these levels are producing steady home price declines. Point is right where we are right now is bad enough and if it stays this way it will result in a more pronounced downturn than the 90's.
From the newest article it states that:
"the August sales data reflects the closing of deals that were primarly made in July. Round two of the mortgage credit crunch probably won't make itself fully known until we get next month's housing data."
Based on this it makes sense that August would look very similar to July. If the trend continues through the September data I think that would be troubling.
from DataQuick
Aug 06 Aug 07 chng med 06 med 07
San Diego 3,853 3,104 -19.4% $495,000 $475,000 -4.0%
http://www.dqnews.com/RRSCA0907.shtm
Looks like a 19% drop from last year which was really really bad. The median is actually showing erosion
"We have stabilized yoy inventory numbers as well for about 2 months running."
Are you high? The only thing that is stable is the growing amount of houses being listed and sold for less and less.....
and if it's happening in East County........the Greater San Diego area is not far behind.....
August sold 400 or so less houses than the past year.......there is a trend there! That's the same amount as about a quarter of all homes sold!
lol...
"Are you high?"
Now that is a post... little lady direct and to the point.
SD Realtor
"little lady direct and to the point."
Too funny, one of my best friends said that to me this morning...guess I am...who knew?
Standing inventory tells a story, but the number of REOs and short sale listings in that standing inventory would tell a more important story.
2300+ NODs for August could translate out to 1400 foreclosures by December. Even if the number of foreclosures were to plateau (which basically can't happen at this point), think about what a 1400/month REO rate does to a 2200/month avg rate of sales.
For the period during which we're adding 1400 foreclosures to the standing inventory every month it almost doesn't matter what the other 20,000 listings do. That number could drop to 5,000 listings - not that it will - and it still wouldn't matter because the REOs all have to be sold for whatever the market will bear at that time, regardless of the losses involved.
For those couple of you who can't see this happening right in front of your eyes I can only express my profound condolences. It's people like you who are surprised when the train that's coming down the track you're standing on hits you.
Are you blind or just can't read a statistical read out? The link to inventory, not sales, clearly lays out that for the past 2 months the yoy inventory numbers have been essentially flat. Sales have weakened and thus the "months of inventory" has expanded. Actual inventory numbers yoy have been flat. Attack the numbers/statistics all you want' its right there.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
schizo -
Like I said in the other thread you posted that data in, I agree that yoy has stayed relatively flat.
I still think that what is interesting in the data you are citing is that last year at this point inventory was falling, this year it is still going up. What happens next month will be interesting - if inventory stays level or increases, the yoy comparison will start changing in a hurry. I do think it is an artifact of the decreasing sales, like you said.
T
I guess i dont understand months of inventory...
From the Sandicor stats, just the last 3 months:
Month / New listings / # Closed Sales
Jun / 7124 / 2468
Jul / 7014 / 2189
Aug / 6936 / 2182
After June we have (7124-2468)=4656 remaining unsold.
Then, plus the new listings in July (7014+4656)=11,670.
After July we have (11,670-2189)=9481 remaining unsold.
Then, plus the new listings in Aug (9481+6936)=16,417.
After Aug we have (16,417-2182)=14,235 remaining unsold.
So, with an average (Jun-Aug) monthly sales of 2280, that leaves us with (14,235/2280)=6 months of unsold inventory. That's 6 months of inventory accumulated in ONLY the last 3 months. If we add in all the unsolds from Jan-May, or prior, it seems like the months of unsold inventory should skyrocket accordingly.
So what am I missing? Thanks.
It's not flat according to the Union Tribune, INFACT quite the opposite.
But what do they know, so go ahead BUY, BUY, BUY!
A fool and his money are soon parted anyway.
Put this in your pipe and smoke it...........
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Median house value dips $20K
With sales falling, the median price of homes here tumbles to $475,000, down $20,000 from a year ago and $14,000 from a month earlier
CHECK IT OUT,"schitzo2buy"
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busin......
little one . . . you'll notice from my posts I don't unilateraly engage in the inane ad hominem attacks or worthless blather of "go ahead buy a house! a huh a huh a huh yuck yuck yuck . . . . etc." I cite hard facts and statistics and ask for feedback from PIGS as to the facts' meanings. But I am amused when my anonymous alias is attacked by someone such as you and I do rather enjoy responding . . . thanks for the entertainment.
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
"I cite hard facts and statistics "
NOT
YOU are delusional.........San Diego County housing prices continued their slide in August as home sales dropped to a 15-year low, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday. READ IT and weep sucker...........
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busin...
Schizo lives in an imaginary world where facts mean nothing and his inane ramblings just keep tumbling out of his mouth like the prices that are falling all around him. I've been around the horn with him before and it's just a big waste of time. I'm convinced that he's just trolling in an attempt to irritate anyone who will take the bait. If enough people ignore him, maybe he will slink back into his hole.
Actually schizo is correct that inventory has been flat for a couple of months. But in a vacuum, this means nothing. Sales have been declining as well, resulting in further downward pressure on prices. Salt in the obvious things already stated in this thread regarding mortgage shakedown and I think it's obvious where we are headed.
These facts should provide the necessary medication to help schizo avoid another attack. But at some point the underlying disease will cause symptoms to re-emerge.
I think the following definition says it all.
Schizophrenia, from the Greek roots schizein (σχίζειν, "to split") and phrēn, phren- (φρήν, φρεν-, "mind"), is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a mental illness characterized by impairments in the perception or expression of reality , most commonly manifesting as auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions or disorganized speech and thinking in the context of significant social or occupational dysfunction .
Schizo was talking about inventory stabilizng and the article points out that inventory (despite all the REO's on the market) is actually 2,000 units below last year's level at this point. If you want to figure out what is happening you have to be objective.
I find it strange that the median price for resale homes was actually up YOY in August when it was widely assumed that Jumbo loans were becoming very hard to get. While median is not a great indicator, I would have thought a lot more lower priced homes would have sold in the face of poor liquidity for non-conforming loans.
If you look at the numbers from this article, the overall median (for all homes) was influenced mostly by the big drop in new home/condo sales prices. REO's and new homes are "must sell". As those inventories increase prices (overall) should continue to drift lower. It would be interesting to get an accurate reading on inventories of REO's and new homes and be able to track that.
Seem right. I keep hearing that sales are down to 2002 numbers. 2002 was a good year, just not compared to 2004.
Facts can be a troubling thing . . . especially when the facts are on the other side of your argument.
And I quote from Rich Toscano
"August resale inventory was actually down almost 4 percent from a year prior."
Here's the link to his article . . . .
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/...
He is making exactly the only point I have made here. Inventories have stablized, or in Rich's assessment declined 4% yoy. I have always granted its just one factor in a mix of factors which indicate more downside from here taken in total. However, leveling inventories bears watching nonetheless. Nothing "imaginary" or "inane" here just facts cited by the Toscano himself which mirror exactly what I have posited.
Props to FormerSanDiegan for getting my point . . . .
"Actually schizo is correct that inventory has been flat for a couple of months."
I guess its just not in line with the whole "rah rah rah . . . housing is going to crash and we are going to buy at the bottom" mentality/group think crowd's hopes and dreams. It is in line with those who take a dispassionate and objective analysis of what will be perhaps the most important financial decision we will ever make.
Still impatiently renting . . . .
In search of a crystal ball . . . .
"sales volume was down 20 percent from August 2006."
There's the reality.........housing IS crashing.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/......
Haven't you noticed abandonded houses in your area? I saw 2 this morning.....
Where are you? Hiding under a rock?
Does the inventory number include properties the banks may be sitting on to keep their balance sheets looking better than they are? If the inventory that banks are sitting on is not represented from foreclosed property - then it's hard to say how much inventory is out there.