 | ||||||
San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis |
||||||
~Navigation~~User login~~RSS~ |
San Diego Home Sales about to be revised downward BIGTIME (89% to 6.5% increase in May)User Forum Topic
Submitted by capeman on June 30, 2009 - 3:50pm
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/ma... Tuesday, June 30, 2009
May San Diego Home Sales Increase Revised From 89% to 6.5% Posted by Tyler Durden at 4:57 PM More and more economic data manipulation is coming to the fore, none of which as blatantly obvious as the California housing market. Some of it is palatable, but when home sales in San Diego get revised from 89% to 6.5% due to a "data glitch", it is no wonder that increasingly more Americans realize every single day they are being blatantly lied to by an Administration whose sole purpose in life is to give out 10 pair of rose-colored glasses to every possible voter in the next election. For the most recent take on this the WSJ chimes in: The California Association of Realtors expects to make sharp downward revisions in its recent monthly reports of soaring home sales in the San Diego area, Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist of the trade group, said in an interview. Those revisions will mean modest downward revisions in statewide sales, he added. The revisions are likely to be announced in late July, when the Realtor group reports home sales for June. The problem resulted from a glitch in data from a multiple-listing service in San Diego, Mr. Kleinhenz said. He said a change in computer systems used there resulted in incorrect data being sent to the Realtor association over the past year or so. Thomas Lawler, an independent economist in Leesburg, Va., who tracks home sales nationwide, raised questions about the San Diego data in a report last week. Mr. Lawler noted that the numbers reported by the Realtors vastly exceeded those from MDA DataQuick, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif., and other sources. The California Realtors have reported that San Diego sales in April were up about 63% from a year earlier. Mr. Kleinhenz said that is expected to be revised downward to a gain of about 20%. For May, the group reported an 89% increase in sales in San Diego; that will be slashed to about 6.5%, the economist said. As a result, he said, the state-wide sales gain for May -- reported last week as 35% -- also will be revised down, though it probably will remain above 30%, Mr. Kleinhenz said. Of course, the problem with this is that as more and more instances of blatant data fudging become obvious, only the most naive citizens will believe anything that is released as "certifiable" economic data.
|
~Finance and investing~*Investment advisory services and securities offered through Girard Securities, Inc., member SIPC/FINRA. ~Recent articles~~Active forum topics~
Sponsored Links
~San Diego median home $/sq.ft.~
|
||||
| © 2004-2008 piggington enterprises llc | terms of use | privacy policy | powered by Drupal | ||||||
 |  |  | ||||
The California Realtors have reported that San Diego sales in April were up about 63% from a year earlier. Mr. Kleinhenz said that is expected to be revised downward to a gain of about 20%. For May, the group reported an 89% increase in sales in San Diego; that will be slashed to about 6.5%, the economist said.
That's off by a huge margin. Wouldn't local realtors have noticed such an obvious discrepancy by now? Maybe nobody read the reports.
What does CAR have to do with the Administration?
BTW, we knew those sales numbers were bullshit.
Any one know if this will impact the Case-Shiller data?
I dont know anything about those reports nor do I care. I dont know any other Realtors that pay attention to them either. Here is what we know. There is very little sellable property on the market. There is alot more demand than supply right now. If there was adequate supply the sales numbers would be even higher than the mistaken figures they published.
Kinda like this SD-UT article:
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2...
That the rate at which home prices are falling slowed last month is interesting, but it would have been useful to see what the sales volume was.
That would require overall price increases and we're not seeing that. I believe you on what you're seeing but you can't say real demand outstrips supply without prices going up instead of continuing down.
Jmail- Case/Shiller is based on pricing over time and not on sales volume so it shouldn't affect the numbers. The supply/demand metric that SD is talking about if it is real will hit pricing and will be reflected Case/Shiller numbers in the next two months.
I absolutely can say that and just did. I'll say it again. There is alot more demand than supply right now. If there was adequate supply the sales numbers would be even higher than the mistaken figures they published.
Prices are actually rising some places and in some price segmetns. A house down the street from just closed for more than the one next door which was larger with a pool and the one across the street which was also larger with a view did this time last year. Prices on many of the short sales I have in process are lower than what the houses are selling for today. Appraisals keep them from rising too rapidly.
No, it will not.
This only affects the CAR reports, which nobody (apparently) pays attention to anyway.
Rich
San Diego County's home prices in April dropped at the slowest pace in three years, the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed Tuesday.
The index, which measures resale house prices on a three-month rolling average for 20 metro areas, stood at 144.43 points for San Diego in April, down only 0.13 point from March, the smallest month-to-month change since June 2006, when the index rose 0.46 point from the month before.
On a year-over-year basis, the index was off 20.01 percent from April 2008, the smallest year-over-year decline since February last year.
SDR, did you flunk Econ 101?
If in fact "There is alot more demand than supply right now" then home prices would be rising in San Diego right now. That is clearly not happening. While everybody knows that supply is being artificially held back, obviously not enough to cause prices to rise. Bottom line, there is NOT more demand than supply.
Prices are actually rising some places and in some price segmetns. A house down the street from just closed for more than the one next door which was larger with a pool and the one across the street which was also larger with a view did this time last year. Prices on many of the short sales I have in process are lower than what the houses are selling for today. Appraisals keep them from rising too rapidly.
You mean one can buy short sales today at lower prices than the actual value?
If in fact "There is alot more demand than supply right now" then home prices would be rising in San Diego right now. That is clearly not happening. While everybody knows that supply is being artificially held back, obviously not enough to cause prices to rise. Bottom line, there is NOT more demand than supply.
No, sdr (not SDR, which is confusing) is a 100 watt bulb even if he isn't always right.
My agent, who is fairly well connected, says the same thing when he isn't ranting about the recent changes to the appraisal process.
Some parts of the market are seeing some rises, but that's the natural result of Helicopter Ben's interest rate manipulation, the $8k tax credit, and other chicanery going on right now.
In my own case, the max my wife and I could responsibly offer went from $215k to $240k (yes, we are bottom feeders) in the last nine months or so. I doubt we're the only ones.
If in fact "There is alot more demand than supply right now" then home prices would be rising in San Diego right now. That is clearly not happening. While everybody knows that supply is being artificially held back, obviously not enough to cause prices to rise. Bottom line, there is NOT more demand than supply.
have you looked at houses lately? Or bid on one? Try it out and get back to us mmmk?
You mean one can buy short sales today at lower prices than the actual value?
I'll let you know when the appraisal some in on the short sale we're buying.
My guess is that it will be right around the contract price, but you never know.
sunny
Here is what happened with some short sales I have. Put it on the market and get offer. Lender does bpo/appraisal right away and then drags their feet for a few months. By the time its approved the market has gotten better and I have back up offers significantly higher than the one they approved.
Deadzone
Try and find a house under 450K. Here are current stats.
Under 450K
1740 active (probably 20 to 30% are short sales w/ offers that should be marked contingent).
1704 (properly marked contingent w/ offers on them)
3250 pending
So we have over 5000 detached houses with offers on them and under 1500 that dont have offers on them.
If they could close in 30 days they would but the lenders hold them up in a lengthly approval process.
The active inventory for detached homes up to 450K cannot be measured in months or weeks. It would have be measured in DAYS! If 5000 detached homes hit the market under 450K that could be sold with a 30 to 60 day escrow most would be gone in well under a month.
Between 450K and 700K there are about 1200 detached homes that are active and an equal amount with offers on them. Another very strong segment.
Above that things change but for relatively affordable home in SD there is a lot more demand than supply.
FWIW, I taught a semester of Econ 101 at a major Division 1 University when I was in grad school.
Take a look at the little Redfin widget to the right of this thread that graphs median home$/ sq ft and tell me what direction the line is going.
Sunny as an example to sdrs post...
Currently on one of my short sales the first offer was 490k, submitted to the lender who dragged his feet. First offer bailed. Backup was 500k submitted and lender dragged thier feet. Third offer is 507 and submitted to the lender. Also the third offer has submitted a letter to kick another 5k to the second lien. Still waiting on the lender. Received a fourth offer at 527k as a backup.
Regarding the Econ 101 debate:
Supply and demand are functions, not single points. That's why they are represented by curves in the classic econ charts.
General statements like "demand exceeds supply" are not meaningful. If there is any market at all, supply and demand are equal at the market price.
A more accurate way to explain a change the market price is to say something like "the demand curve has shifted."
It's a subtle nitpick, but that's the nature of the dismal science.
The little bump at the end of the Redfin chart could be a result of demand shifting to the right, supply shifting to the left, or some combination of both. This is the relevant question: which direction are both curves moving, and where will they go?
In a perfectly competitive unrestrained unmanipulated market that may be true. This isnt close to one.......
If in fact "There is alot more demand than supply right now" then home prices would be rising in San Diego right now. That is clearly not happening. While everybody knows that supply is being artificially held back, obviously not enough to cause prices to rise. Bottom line, there is NOT more demand than supply.
In areas and price segments where there are tens of offers on properties there certainly is excess demand relative to supply.
There are areas and price segments where this is the case and where there are actually price increases.
What some of these guys see on a daily basis today shows up about 2-3 months later in Dataquick and about 5-6 months later in Case-Shiller Index because of lags in reporting.
We saw this as we approached the peak in 2005. Aggregate Demand was down in 2004 (number of sales decreased) supply increased dramatically in 2004-2005, yet prices reported continue to rise through late 2005.
Either fundamentals of supply/demand economics were wrong at that point OR the measures of price used were lagging the actual market supply/demand.
I believe that the same thing is happening in reverse now.
Arguments for a market bottom forming (at least in some areas) centers on supply/demand and affordability, while the direction of prices indicates otherwise.
Back in 2004-2005, arguments for a market bubble centered on supply/demand and affordability, while prices indicated otherwise ... for a while.
BTW Thanx SD R for the clarification and confirmation of what I was referring to.
Well said FSD
That doesn't matter. The principles always apply.
There are an infinite number of influences on the shape and position of the supply and demand curves at any point in time. Government policy influences the supply and demand functions, sometimes in a big way. But it does not change the fundamental model.
"Manipulation", such as government caps on prices, just change the parameters to the functions. These will change the shape or position of the curves, perhaps in unusual ways. But manipulations do not change how the curves are interpreted.
It is true that the Econ 101 models assume perfect competition, which is never the case in any market. However, most markets have an enough participants that the assumption of perfect competition is reasonable. The real estate market in San Diego has plenty of buyers and sellers, so the principles of Econ 101 still apply.
Enjoy the view from your Ivory Tower. I had a short sale property that was approved. Two weeks before closing buyer gets weak kneed and cancels. Property goes back on market and several offers roll in. I could sell this house 10 times or more at the approved price to the buyers out there that want it but only have one house to sell. At a higher price they wouldnt be there.
Break out the text book and explain that situation.
Are all of these "multiple bidders" on these foreclusure properties pre-qualified?
Break out the text book and explain that situation.
Maybe that's why enginerds like me (speaking relatively to others) are poor :) Analysis to paralysis. Slight chuckle on the ivory tower expression...I haven't heard someone use it for some time...though it usually refers to a bunch of researchy types that can't get any real work done.
sdr,
Just to make sure I understand...
You see multiple bidders on properties that are priced right, but there they are unwilling to push the price up substantially?
Does this imply they are investors? My premise is that families would be more apt to overbid than a savvy investor who has crunched the numbers carefully.
[By the way, I'm a (mostly) lurker who very much appreciates your posts, even though they've been depressing me lately.]
Break out the text book and explain that situation.
Easy: Your listings do not represent the entire market. Just because you only have one house to sell doesn't mean that there is no supply.
BTW: I'm not the one that claimed to be an economics professor.
Yes, it's a pet-peeve of mine when I hear people say that the "rules of economics no longer apply." Whenever someone makes this claim, they are just demonstrating that they don't really understand economics.
The textbooks should not be rewritten just because some realtor in San Diego is hurting and he can't figure out why.
deadzone
Very very very well qualified. I saw offers with 20% down, 30% down, 50% down and yes all cash. The property is currently in contract with two MD's.
sdr
Fletch
They are owner occupiers and if priced fairly priced they are all over it. If it is over priced or doesnt match the comps they are not interested.