If the job recovery continue at the rate it has been growing over the last 2 years, we probably will be back to peak employment level in about 2 years. Not too shabby.
Submitted by poorgradstudent on December 20, 2011 - 10:07am.
Definitely a very positive data point. Even the bubble sectors have added jobs for the past 5 months, while private non-bubble looks to be picking up steam. Hopefully this can create a nice snowball effect as more jobs creates more demand.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 20, 2011 - 10:33am.
poorgradstudent wrote:
Definitely a very positive data point. Even the bubble sectors have added jobs for the past 5 months, while private non-bubble looks to be picking up steam. Hopefully this can create a nice snowball effect as more jobs creates more demand.
I made this same point when jobs were plummeting, and people were making basically the exact opposite point that you are. Employment is a lagging indicator of economic growth. Which is another way of saying, the causality doesn't go from jobs -> growth, it goes from growth -> jobs. So while these numbers are interesting in their own right, I don't think they have much predictive capability.
Submitted by CA renter on December 22, 2011 - 5:46pm.
Rich Toscano wrote:
poorgradstudent wrote:
Definitely a very positive data point. Even the bubble sectors have added jobs for the past 5 months, while private non-bubble looks to be picking up steam. Hopefully this can create a nice snowball effect as more jobs creates more demand.
I made this same point when jobs were plummeting, and people were making basically the exact opposite point that you are. Employment is a lagging indicator of economic growth. Which is another way of saying, the causality doesn't go from jobs -> growth, it goes from growth -> jobs. So while these numbers are interesting in their own right, I don't think they have much predictive capability.
But couldn't one argue that a better job market increases optimism and confidence, which would make people more inclined to spend and take on more debt, resulting in higher demand/growth?
Either way, this is definitely good news. I hope this trend continues.
If the job recovery continue at the rate it has been growing over the last 2 years, we probably will be back to peak employment level in about 2 years. Not too shabby.
Definitely a very positive data point. Even the bubble sectors have added jobs for the past 5 months, while private non-bubble looks to be picking up steam. Hopefully this can create a nice snowball effect as more jobs creates more demand.
I made this same point when jobs were plummeting, and people were making basically the exact opposite point that you are. Employment is a lagging indicator of economic growth. Which is another way of saying, the causality doesn't go from jobs -> growth, it goes from growth -> jobs. So while these numbers are interesting in their own right, I don't think they have much predictive capability.
Nice it explains a lot. Thanks.
I made this same point when jobs were plummeting, and people were making basically the exact opposite point that you are. Employment is a lagging indicator of economic growth. Which is another way of saying, the causality doesn't go from jobs -> growth, it goes from growth -> jobs. So while these numbers are interesting in their own right, I don't think they have much predictive capability.
But couldn't one argue that a better job market increases optimism and confidence, which would make people more inclined to spend and take on more debt, resulting in higher demand/growth?
Either way, this is definitely good news. I hope this trend continues.