San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I recieved my new assesed value as well. I bought a Bank owned back in Oct of 2007, the home was being sold at 25% from peak of the 2005 price. My price was $420k, the new assesed value is $389k.

I believe by this time next year, the value should be assesed at $300-$320k.

TemekuT: It sounds like you got a voluntary reassessment for your property value as of January of this year (for tax payments due in Dec. and next April). It does NOT sound like this is a response to your appeal.
We must be careful about the dates here because it gets tricky. Your appeal, presumably filed last November, was based on your claimed value as of January of that year. I believe you have not yet got an answer on that. Expect a call from the Assessor's office with an offer to compromise. If you don't agree, then you are entitled to a hearing.

Econ Prof, I filed the Prop. 8 "Decline-in-Value Reassessment Application" on 03/28/08. The instructions specified the comps had to be as of January 1, 2008, but no later than March 31, 2008, so my comps were timely and relevant. It appears the reassessment I received was a blanket response to the changing property values as it was bulk applied to my neighborhood and not a response to my reassessment request. I am going to file an appeal soon.

The form indicates the voluntary reassessment is for FY 2008-2009, that is, July 1, 2008 through June 30, 2009. That is why I am flummoxed that the 2% Prop 13 allowed increase in assessed value for FY 2008-2009 was added in and then backed out in calculating the Prop 8 assessment. What a way to increase the tax basis a wee bit!

Temeku, how much of the taxes in morgan are not based on value? I'm looking at some and trying to figure my potential tax bill. I remember when they first opened the first tract they quoted me 2.4%, then at peak they said 1.7 or 1.8, which is because the price was double so the percentage is irrlevent because of some of the non value tax items there.

I saw one come up today, sold in 2005 for 575, assessed at 589 in 2007 and the tax bill was $9250.
It's listed for 309k, I know that if I bought it for half the assessed my tax bill wont be half of the 9250 because a couple grand of that bill is per lot not value based but how much? Realtors use percentages but in these drastic value changes those are irrelevent.

The lot back yard was never done and it's kinda too big of a lot for me (which is why I am posting it) but what are your thoughts on this one and or this tract.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44913-...

also what is the hoa for morgan?

TG, If I understand your question you may be able to find your answer at the County property tax website here https://taxpayments.co.riverside.ca.us/S... . (Note - It appears as though it is unavailable until August 1 because of end of year processing). Armed with the assessment number included in the listing you can retrieve a breakdown of the current taxes. I believe that the only amount that recalculates is the 1% general obligation which is the first line item, the rest are known fixed amounts. I have tried to analyze some potential purchases in Murrieta and have included one below. If my numbers are right although the tax amount in dollars is reduced in my example by roughly 1/3 the actual tax rate as a percentage will increase from 1.35 to 1.55. I did some others in newer areas that had higher mello-roos payments and the percentages got well into the 2’s
btw, Does anyone know why the 1% Tax Limit Per Prop 13 actually is 1.08%,its that way on all of the ones I review.

CURRENT @ 686,000
1% TAX LIMIT PER PROP 13........$7,399.12 1.08%
FLD CNTL STORMWATER/CLEANWATER......$4.08 0.00%
CSA 152-MURRIETA STORMWATER........$10.00 0.00%
MURRIETA CSD.......................$45.44 0.01%
MURRIETA PARKS & REC...............$45.00 0.01%
MURRIETA FIRE PROTECTION...........$40.00 0.01%
MURRIETA L&L 5....................$101.48 0.01%
MURRIETA CO WATER CFD 99-1......$1,588.32 0.23%
MCWD WATER STANDBY.................$21.00 0.00%
MCWD SEWER STANDBY.................$21.00 0.00%
TOTAL TAX $/%...................$9,275.44 1.35%

PURCHASE @ 400,000
1% TAX LIMIT PER PROP 13........$4,320.00 1.08%
FLD CNTL STORMWATER/CLEANWATER......$4.08 0.00%
CSA 152-MURRIETA STORMWATER........$10.00 0.00%
MURRIETA CSD.......................$45.44 0.01%
MURRIETA PARKS & REC...............$45.00 0.01%
MURRIETA FIRE PROTECTION...........$40.00 0.01%
MURRIETA L&L 5....................$101.48 0.03%
MURRIETA CO WATER CFD 99-1......$1,588.32 0.40%
MCWD WATER STANDBY.................$21.00 0.01%
MCWD SEWER STANDBY.................$21.00 0.01%
TOTAL TAX $/%...................$6,196.32 1.55%

Pizzaman: The old 1% rule under Proposition 13 has been eroding for a long time due to voter-approved measures, such as bonded debt, that allows the government entities to push the real figure up. I always assume 1.15%, excluding Mello Roos when making projections. But wow, it looks like they've really blown the lid off in your example.
I think we will soon see some court challenges to county tax assessors that are too slow to lower assessments to get more in line with reality. Government officials have an incentive to pretend values are holding up.

temeculaguy: Wow, shadow inventory! That Silver Rose St. house just went on the MLS, but has had the "for sale" sign on the garage door for about 3 months. The house is pretty standard inside, no granite etc., but with tile floors. That's a cul-de-sac lot, a pie shaped wedge with a view and no neighbors behind. It's actually a very nice location with quiet neighbors on either side. There's a backyard large raised concrete dais of sorts on one side that has been plumbed through with a gas line. I don't know about water, though; I'd have to go over there and look in the back yard again. It looks like the owners (ha!) were planning a big built-in BBQ setup. The tract is Cristal, which was the 2nd smallest McMillin tract and this is the middle plan of 3 plans. The HOA for Morgan Hill varies. It was projected to be $85 at build-out, but as we're still in the construction phase and due to no developer subsidy, it's much higher now. Each time a new phase is opened it increases and then decreases as each house closes escrow. Due to no sales and no phase releases here lately, it's been $142.52 for several months. The highest bill I received was $160ish, the low $70ish, but those were unique months. This situation could go on for years because McMillin is barely building here now.

EconProf, temeculaguy, and pizzaman: When I am referring to my tax value, I am referring to the assessed value, which, as far as I can tell, (based on the comps I supplied for Prop 8 consideration) was $100,000 too high at 03/31/08. The base tax at Morgan looks like 1.04% per my property tax bill, so 100,000 x 1.04% = $1004 that I am overpaying for FY 2008-2009. The other items on the tax bill look like fixed bond amounts that won't decrease, but that are simply paid off and retired over the life of the bond issue. BTW, I have had difficulty getting into the Riverside Tax Collector web site for months now as the site has been under construction and error prone. Access is intermittent.

pizzaman: I have relatives that owned 3 pizza restaurants, one in LA Co, one in OC, one in Riverside. The Riverside location always was a winner, but the others thrived in a downturn. I'm curiuos, what's your take on where we are in the downturn based on the pizza purchase indicator?

I received a voluntary adjustment in the mail from Riverside County. It did reduce the value of the structure, but the the value of the land increased by 50%, i.e. from $100,000 to $150,000? Figure that one out. I can't understand how land value in a declining market with short sales, 200 plus homes in foreclosure or soon to become REOs and a New Homes still under construction (excess inventory), would be rising at such a rate.

Regards,

renshen

PS I will be appealing the assessment, with comparable values.