San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

FWIW the keeping up with the jonses mentality around here isnt close to what you see on the east coast (where I grew up also). People out here may think so but they dont have the experience growing up back there and raising kids here that I do. When I go back and see nieces and nephews there I am glad I got out.

If you want lots of young families you most likely will have to go to the newer areas. You will sacrifice lot size but that is where all your peers are.

OK...now get ready for the resident lunatic to come in and warn about the evils of planned communities, homeowners associations and Mello Roos.

What's your budget? Where do you work (i.e. how far north can you go)? Do you want to be able to walk to school/stores/parks, or you don't care if you have to get in the car to get anywhere? Do you mind/prefer if you are less then a mile from I15?

You're speaking for yourself again, sdr.

moscin, besides all of the extra expenses sdr just mentioned, it is actually the *newer* communities which tend to have the type of residents that are into "keeping up with the joneses." Some of these areas have a lot of distressed properties because their "status-conscious `owners'" have borrowed everything they could from their properties in order to "keep up appearances."

Pay no mind to "realtor steering-tactics." There are PLENTY of young families living in older areas of SD County which do not have Mello Roos payments (in addition to PITI), Poway being one of them.

Not sure of your price range, but have you considered this subdivision in Poway? This property is situated on 1 AC and does NOT have Mello Roos.

http://www.trulia.com/property/308297483...

moscin, you never mentioned here what vicinity you will be working in after your transfer. This information is critical to your housing location, due to daily commute time.

Planned communities are fine but watch the HOA and MR fee’s

Even if you buy a foreclosures at a steal deal, sometimes the MR and HOA fee’s can run you $500 to $1000 a month in some tracts, then you add the mortgage, 1% or so tax + any bonds and insurance,
But hey if you got that kind of income and don’t mind the HOA-Nazi’s (or you are a HOA-Nazi)
I am sure those are fine places to live.

Just kidding about the Nazi stuff but make sure you account for the HOA and MR fee's.

sdr is "speaking for himself"? I believe that is you.

The man just told you where it is that he wanted to live and you tried to sell him on something else.

CDMA, did you even LOOK at the link I provided? It is in one of THE finest communities in Poway, where the OP is considering different subdivisions. Why don't you go back to school and learn how to read and comprehend?

As I've mentioned before on this forum,

http://piggington.com/how_about_steeplec...

there is actually less "keep up with the joneses" in Carmel Valley than there is in Scripps Ranch (I've lived both places) and, I would guess, less in CV than there is in RB (RB being somewhat similar to Scripps Ranch.

In Carmel Valley, you'll pay more for a house. And for a lot of people, it's not worth it. But, to address your "joneses" point, you'll see less of that in CV. My theory as to why is that, in Carmel Valley, in addition to the upper-middle class demographic, you have rich people. So the upper-middle class aren't quite so show-offy, because their escalade and their mcmansion pale in comparison to the ferarri that the guy up the street parks in his real mansion. To act uppity when you're down at the middle of the local totem pole doesn't really fly. And the rich are rich enough that they don't have to try too hard. The rich people we know are all pretty humble.

So predictable. Hey if you want to spend 1.2m all the power to you but you don't have to. The resident lunatic lives in Chula Vista surrounded by bitter old folks like herself. She has not a clue what life is like inthe kinds of communities you are looking at. Take a look at the pictures on the house she sent you. Check out the decor. My guess is those bedrooms haven't been occupied by kids in over a decade. That Mickey mouse stuffed animal appears to be a first edition.

Again San Diego materialism is the minor leagues compared to the Northeast. You will be pleasantly surprised where ever you end up.

moscin,

I think the keeping up with the Joneses mentality exists a bit pretty much everywhere and it really only affects you if you buy into it. I find that the people who tend not to care about keeping up find each other and have a great time.

Poway has a bit of a country feel to it, which I don't really like. If you have some cowboy in you, then it may appeal to you. It doesn't appeal to me and it is frigging hot out there. Seriously, I would rather get more home for my money and live in Phoenix than in Poway. Not kidding. Not an exaggeration.

I don't know much about Rancho Bernardo. I have always thought of it as a community of older folks who's kids have moved out. Too far from anything interesting. Very boring. I could be wrong.

I think you could be very happy in Carmel Valley. I have alot of friends up there and the range of classes is surprisingly wide. There are families living in 2 BR condos just so they can get into the district, and there are $5M homes. Given that, you have all kinds of folks with money who don't flaunt it, people with money who do flaunt it and middle class folks - some who try to keep up and others who are just there for the schools. It is a bit stale, from an architecture standpoint, and you probably get more for your money in Poway but it is, overall, a pretty nice environment for families. Plus, it's close enough to the coast that it isn't hot.

Some parts of Rancho Penasquitos are pretty interesting.

Between Rancho Penasquitos and Carmel Valley lies Santaluz, which is a very new development that I'm not a fan of.

moscin, I just found this data on Heritage Estates (which you may already have seen). I don't know how accurate it is but on the "Distribution of Residents' Ages" graph, it shows the average adult male resident is 55 years old and the average adult female resident is 45 years old, with a few sprinkled boomers in their 60's. Acc to the graph, there are virtually no residents there between the ages of 23 and 33.

http://www.city-data.com/neighborhood/Th...

There DOES appear to be children there but some of those children, in actuality, may be residing with grandparents instead of parents (or the children AND their parents reside with their parents). This is a very common practice in CA coastal counties due to the high cost of housing and young parents' fervent desire to send their kids to schools which are located in areas in which they could never afford to live in themselves.

Not saying YOU couldn't afford to live there but I don't know how many young moms your spouse would actually run into there on a daily basis.

Just something to think about on your "due diligence" when house-hunting.

I'm not familiar with the subdivision in RB that you mentioned but agree with sdduuuude that RB is a very well-known senior-citizen community, having been originally built as the only completely HOA-controlled community in SD for senior citizens.

Seriously
There is no comparison between anywhere within 50 miles of the city of SD and phoenix,
Once you wake up to 100 degrees cool of the morning for the 30th time that month in phoenix you will be really happy to move to TV even. You will have to trust me on that one.
sdduuud please mark your calendar and spend a few days in September in Phoenix.
It will be unforgettable I promise.

Even at this late date, sdr STILL appears to be "clueless" as to what I do and don't "have a clue" about.

Hey .... I thought he was supposed to be "ignoring" me .... :=D

I don't feel like I need to keep up with the Joneses down the street.... but I do feel like I need to keep up with the Wongs up the street.

Because some times two Wongs make you Write...

(Thank you.... thank you...)

I've been living in Poway for over 1 year now. I absolutely love it. We are mid 30's with 2 kids (well, one on the way). The best decision was to buy a place here. Poway has many areas, so you have to consider your budget & requirements (some areas are great as some are nothing out of the ordinary). I used my AC 4 times last year.....go figure

He told you where he wanted to live and then YOU tried to steer him in a different direction. You chided sdr for something that he did not do and, in fact, did yourself even though you provided a link to a "poway subdivision" at the very end.

You don't even see your own hypocrisy.

You go on my Anvil list.

As for personal attacks I have never done that to you but I will say this. I would love for a FBI profiler to read your posts. I am sure that your personality is a text book look-up in the DSM-IV.

Last word is your.

As to Moscin,

I have family in Poway and the absolutely love the schools there, sense of community, and newer-ness of the area. They have pretty much sold my wife on the area because of the schools. I suggest you look into that. Many of the bloggers here will speak to the schools districts north of the 56 freeway. My cousins kids are both at the top of their class. I am sure that is important to you and while there are many good alternatives as mentioned by someone else here MOST of the good schools are north of the 56 with a few other stand out spots in older parts of SD...

SDDuuuude and some others are authorities on the schools here and you should listen to the charitably.

Regards,

CE

P.S. Spelled Check in Word as to meet the utmost standards of certian bloggers.

I spent the first 21 years of my life in Tucson.
I'm 1/2 lizard and visit Phoenix regularly. Would rather have a house like this on a 13,000 sq. ft. lot for $325K in Awatukee than anything for $325K in Poway.

I have also lived in Poway for a year.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2106-E...

Just for fun, do a search in Redfin with a min house size of 3000 sq. ft and a min lot size of 1/2 acre and a max price of $325.

Glad to see CE can finally use spell check. All I can now say to him, based upon a multitude of his posts is, "Paranoia will destroy ya." ;=]

OK to each their own.
You could probably find something close to that in TV or east county (maybe valley center) for around the same amount.
Me I would still choose that over Phoenix

WOW, sdduuuude! There are actually GREEN lawns and trees around there ... and several one-story models! I've driven thru there on I-10/I-17 several times but never really got very far off the fwy. These houses are MUCH bigger than a typical SD house, ESP in the $300-$400K range!

How much is a typical SFR water bill in Phoenix from April to October....for those with landscaping to water? Just wondering .... I have no plans to retire there but can kind of see why lots of people do.

I agree, Shoveler. If in SD County, it just likely wouldn't be as *new.*

Hey, didn't you used to be Nor_LA_SD_Guy and/or his twin, Nor_LA_SD_Guy2?

Moscin
You have found a great place to learn about life in SD. There are lots of smart, well intentioned folks around here and unfortunately a few crazies with axes to grind. We call them LETDLITA's (leading experts that dont live in the area). Stick to information from the folks who actually live in an area and you will be fine. Of course, do your own due diligence as well when you get here to look around.

People in CA are spoiled by relatively low RE taxes relative to the east coast. Back east people are used to paying higher taxes in nicer areas with more highly regarded school systems. In CA your taxes are essentially 1% of the purchase plus a few minor assessments (roughly 10 basis points). Unlike back east, houses are not re-assessed each year. To keep schools afloat and fund new infrastructure (schools, roads and Taj Mahal like fire stations) they assess new construction with additional fees commonly called Mello Roos. Old timers think they are bad but young families mostly view them as a higher tax rate in return for better/newer infrastructure. Not all homes have them and they vary so be sure to inquire about them and include them in your calculations.

More than anything you have found a great source of information from well intentioned people. We are happy to have new people joining our growing hometown (at least most of us) and wish you luck in your search.

maybe I am may I am not,

anyway I am getting really good with a Shovel these days.

I mean really really good !!

It's technically just southwest of Rancho Bernardo, but... my husband and I moved into the south side of 4S Ranch (south of Camino del Norte) about 6 weeks ago and we LOVE it. The HOA and Mello Roos are much lower on the south side and we like how you don't feel like you're looking at an endless sea of houses when you're driving in.

I haven't met any stay at home moms yet, but I see them everyday (pushing their strollers) as I am driving into work. Our kids are age 1 and 3.

I predict that the south area has more older kids than the north end (which has newer construction, and more younger kids), but that doesn't bother us much. There are still LOTS and LOTS of kids. and hopefully fewer young ones will mean that Stone Ranch Elementary will get less crowded as my little ones reach school age.

Ya. If you spend the $800K that you would spend in Carmel Valley south or south/southeast of South Mountain in Phoenix, it'll be an honest-to-goodness mansion with a wide-open nature preserve behind you.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13835-...

As Shovler says, it is truly a "to each his own" kind of thing, that's for sure. And I appreciate that. Just giving the OP some alternative viewpoints.

I see the comparative benefits of living in San Diego vs. other parts of the country when I look at neighborhoods along the I-5 corridor. I just don't see them along the 15.

We have been in the PUSD area since we moved into the area 6 years ago and would highly recommend it. The schools are top rate and the environment very family friendly and great for folks that enjoy the outdoors.

micro-analysis of the area:

--the Trails, older estate homes, no mello roos, very hot in the summer. Essentially just south of Escondido
--northeast Poway, gated estates mostly. Low mello Roos but higher HOA. Again, very hot in the summer.
--Stonebridge, new upper end homes with mello roos, all PUSD mello roos can be paid off, approx 60k. Factor that into purchase price. Much cooler compared to poway.
--4S south, low MR, low HOA, best schools in PUSD, summer better than poway.
--4S north, high MR, low HOA, very crowded, over built during the bubble. Most of distress concentrated in this area
--del sur, very high MR, high HOA, small homes on small lots
--Santa Fe Valley, newish larger homes on large lots, very low MR, gated, HOA reasonable.
--santaluz and the crosbys, beautiful very high end homes with steep MR and HOA.

I would say as for school age children and young families, all these areas fit the criteria except for the Trails and less so northeast poway estate homes.

I'm not pro or con either. Each should be evaluated on their own merits. They are all different and just one part of the equation. None are inherently evil - just another data point to pop into your calculations to make the best decision for you and your family.

Prices arent going down anytime soon. You will get to live where you want to buy as soon as you are a well paid professional instead of a poor graduate student;)

moscin,

You've heard a lot about the summer heat in various places in this thread. Proximity to the ocean makes a vast difference in summer temps here. The ocean is cold, and the wind blows off of it virtually every day in the summer. We have a "marine layer" (low clouds and fog) which is very prevalent in May and June, and occasional during the rest of the summer. This marine layer burns off at varying times in varying locations (sometimes not at all, even all the way to the mountains). The closer you are to the ocean, the more marine layer you're going to get. And the closer to the ocean, the cooler it is in the summer. I'm actually finding Carmel Valley (3 miles from the ocean) a bit cool for my taste. It's 72 most summer days here. It's hotter the further inland you go. If I remember, Scripps Ranch was 6-10 degrees hotter than CV. At those temps, you still don't generally have to use your ac except when the santa anas blow (very hot and dry) or during the occasional summer monsoonal moisture periods (hot and relatively humid). Poway residents can tell you the summer day temps there. The eastern parts of Poway will be hotter than the western parts. Eastern Poway is pretty hot. Ramona is really hot. Temecula, forget about it.

Just something for you to consider.

Yes, zk. I always warn people that "Sunny San Diego" does not mean "Sunny La Jolla"

It's a trick we play on the rich people here.